4512 Noble St · Houston, TX 77020

$330,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,617 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 2023 Excellent condition 2,500 sqft lot $204/sqft · at area comps Est $345k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Uncover the epitome of modern living at this newly constructed gem in the historic Fifth Ward! This 2-story home boats contemporary architecture, convenient first-floor living, an open inviting layout & high-end finishes throughout. A light-filled haven awaits in the spacious living area w/ soaring ceilings; perfect for entertaining. At the heart of this abode, the gourmet kitchen showcases luxurious quartz counters, an expansive island, chic Samsung appliances & glossy lacquer cabinetry. Tranquility abounds in the primary suite flaunting a quaint balcony & a spa-like bath w/ a dual sink vanity, oversized walk-in closet soaking tub & glass enclosed shower. The private backyard w/ lush landscaping offers an idyllic setting to take in the open air or dine alfresco. Find abundant parking w/ a 2-car garage & double-wide driveway. Reside minutes away from Boyce Dorian Park, Discovery Green, Lynos Avenue, Downtown, East River & more!

Key facts

• Spa-like bath
• Private backyard
• First-floor living

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR LIVING
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• SPA-LIKE BATH
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• LUSH LANDSCAPING
• ABUNDANT PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $330k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-668 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (35.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (33.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (35.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Atherton El (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #4,021 of 4,322 statewide, top 94%, 433 students, 96% FRL); Fleming Middle (math 10% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,616 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 384 students, 97% FRL); Wheatley H S (math 17% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 643 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,191/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 969% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 13100% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,970 (35.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.68%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $344,665
• List price: $330,000
• Delta: -4.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2302 Wipprecht St	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,636 (+1%)	6mo	$299,000	$183	85
2207 Dan St	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,736 (+7%)	5mo	$339,000	$195	80
4809 Nichols St	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,581 (-2%)	9mo	$285,000	$180	80
2303 Wipprecht St	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,764 (+9%)	2mo	$329,000	$187	76
4703 Oats St Unit B	0.16mi	3/3.0	1,768 (+9%)	6mo	$359,000	$203	70
2013 Schweikhardt St	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,806 (+12%)	8mo	$304,999	$169	70
2105 Sam Wilson St Unit A	0.59mi	3/3.5	1,611 (-0%)	9mo	$270,000	$168	60
4404 Bond St	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,529 (-5%)	3mo	$295,000	$193	59
1907 Harlem St Unit A	0.46mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,700 (+5%)	9mo	$307,000	$181	58
3107 Amboy St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,503 (-7%)	6mo	$280,000	$186	52
4611 Buck St	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,541 (-5%)	8mo	$205,000	$133	48
1811 Pannell St Unit C	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,381 (-15%)	7mo	$275,000	$199	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $140,114
• Equity at exit: $297,290

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.90×
• Total profit: $452,348
• Equity at exit: $641,117

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77020

• Home prices YoY: 29.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,191 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$531 /mo · $6,376/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-668

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,037

Max offer price $211,970

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-481	-5% $-575	+0% $-668	+5% $-762	+10% $-855
Rent	-10% $-841	-5% $-755	+0% $-668	+5% $-582	+10% $-495
Rate	-1.0pp $-502	-0.5pp $-584	base $-668	+0.5pp $-754	+1.0pp $-841

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4712 Rawley St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1501	$2,045	$1.36	22d	1	0.13mi
4712 Rawley St Unit a Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,070	$1.38	22d	1	0.13mi
4300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	45d	1	0.34mi
5217 Noble St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1897	$2,750	$1.45	45d	1	0.38mi
4509 Courtney St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1456	$1,150	$0.79	24d	1	0.49mi
1222 Upton St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2055	$2,600	$1.27	45d	1	0.52mi
3730 Lyons Ave Unit 216 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	45d	1	0.57mi
5605 Mulvey St Unit 1019610P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1410	$4,376	$3.10	1d	1	0.57mi
2105 Sam Wilson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1416	$6,750	$4.77	45d	1	0.57mi
1513 Cage St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,550	$1.06	45d	1	0.77mi
4109 Hare St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1913	$6,950	$3.63	45d	1	0.79mi
4109 Hare St Unit 1019559P Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1905	$6,852	$3.60	9d	1	0.79mi
3300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	45d	1	0.84mi
3503 Wyrick St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1746	$2,850	$1.63	45d	1	0.88mi
1307 Bayou St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1814	$2,400	$1.32	9d	1	0.97mi
1303 Bayou St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1869	$3,200	$1.71	45d	1	0.97mi
3410 Baer St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2040	$3,500	$1.72	45d	1	1.07mi
3419 Gillespie St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2168	$2,300	$1.06	45d	1	1.08mi
1023 Hahlo St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1434	$1,775	$1.24	7d	1	1.11mi
611 Sydnor St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2157	$2,400	$1.11	45d	1	1.23mi
308 Grove St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1701	$2,350	$1.38	9d	1	1.23mi
2905 Baer St Unit 1047953P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1991	$2,922	$1.47	1d	1	1.28mi
3910 Woolworth St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	45d	1	1.34mi
1714 Mary St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	45d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $330,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $330,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $330,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $330,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $330,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $330,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $330,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $330,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $330,000 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $330,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $330,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-03-30
    listed $2,500
14. 2026-03-28
    listed $330,000 Active 965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (965 chars)

    Uncover the epitome of modern living at this newly constructed gem in the historic Fifth Ward! This 2-story home boats contemporary architecture, convenient first-floor living, an open inviting layout & high-end finishes throughout. A light-filled haven awaits in the spacious living area w/ soaring ceilings; perfect for entertaining. At the heart of this abode, the gourmet kitchen showcases luxurious quartz counters, an expansive island, chic Samsung appliances & glossy lacquer cabinetry. Tranquility abounds in the primary suite flaunting a quaint balcony & a spa-like bath w/ a dual sink vanity, oversized walk-in closet soaking tub & glass enclosed shower. The private backyard w/ lush landscaping offers an idyllic setting to take in the open air or dine alfresco. Find abundant parking w/ a 2-car garage & double-wide driveway. Reside minutes away from Boyce Dorian Park, Discovery Green, Lynos Avenue, Downtown, East River & more!

15. 2024-04-30
    historical $2,400
16. 2024-03-19
    price $2,400
17. 2024-02-29
    listed $2,600
18. 2024-02-29
    historical
19. 2024-02-28
    listed $2,600 Active
20. 2024-02-27
    soldstatus
21. 2024-02-26
    soldstatus
22. 2023-12-16
    historical
23. 2023-11-01
    listed $359,000 Active
24. 2023-10-24
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,376 · $531/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,376 · $531/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,297
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$6,376
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,104
• − Management: −$2,104
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$14,021
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,365
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,653/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This newly constructed single-family home in the historic Fifth Ward offers modern living with contemporary architecture and high-end finishes. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,686
• Household income: $50,119
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 969.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Black 24% Two or more races 22% White 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 59% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.64%
• Current HPI: 246.5578
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed for Rent $2,500 HARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-30 Rental Removed $2,400 HARMLS
• 2024-03-19 Price Changed $2,400 HARMLS
• 2024-02-29 Listed for Rent $2,600 HARMLS
• 2024-02-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-02-28 Listed $2,600 HARMLS
• 2024-02-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-02-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-12-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-11-01 Listed $359,000 HARMLS
• 2023-10-24 Coming Soon — HARMLS

Property tax history

+76.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,376 · -8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.