4609 Scr 541 · Forest, MS 39074

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 276 Days on market

Built 1983 1.00 ac lot $95/sqft · 31% below area Est $171k · 41% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice brick home structure is great location is wonderful

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1983
• Listed 276 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $150 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (4.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#55 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Smith County School District (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #55 of 130 in MS (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Smith County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 276 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 276 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.43%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,708
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -29.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

7.77% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $49,242
• Equity at exit: $74,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $135,652
• Equity at exit: $146,219

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39074

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $954 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $447/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $764

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 276 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 275 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 274 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 273 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 271 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 268 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 267 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 266 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 265 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $100,000 Active 262 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 261 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 260 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 259 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 258 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $100,000 Active 257 DOM
16. 2025-09-15
    listed $100,000 Active
17. 2025-08-19
    listed $120,000 Active 56-char remark

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    Nice brick home structure is great location is wonderful

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $447 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $790 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$343/yr (+$29/mo · 76.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$447
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$916
• − Management: −$916
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $156
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$37
• After-tax cash flow: $1,764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Smith County School District
• NCES district ID: 2804020
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,791
• Composite: 29.09/100
• National rank: #6597
• State rank: #55 of 130 in MS

Livability — Forest

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #8727

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,423

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,231 people
• By 2030: 14,658 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 13,448 · -11.7%
• By 2050: 12,234 · -19.7%
• By 2075: 9,527 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 7,537 · -50.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 41% White 39% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.7) · D 19.4% · R 80.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: -51.7pp · 2024: -60.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.7 2020: R+56.0 2016: R+56.6 2012: R+50.2 2008: R+51.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.77%
• Current HPI: 169.2022
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-15 Listed $100,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-08-19 Listed $120,000 Fizber.com