1105 Shabazz St · Milford, TX 76670

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1974 0.39 ac lot $113/sqft · 43% below area Est $218k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Contractor Special in Milford! If you’ve been hunting for a true diamond in the rough, this 4 bedroom, 1 bath home is calling your name. Sitting in a quiet small-town setting, this place has great bones and tons of potential—just bring your Pinterest boards and some elbow grease to turn it into something amazing. Inside, you’ll find a classic layout with plenty of space to rework and modernize. The extra bedrooms offer flexibility for an office, guest room, or whatever you need. Outside, there’s room to create a great outdoor hangout, garden, or play area. Whether you’re looking for your next project, a flip, or a future rental property, this one is a solid opportunity. Home is being sold AS-IS-come see the vision and make it your own!

Key facts

• Play area
• Garden
• Extra bedrooms

Tags

• QUIET SMALL-TOWN SETTING
• CLASSIC LAYOUT
• EXTRA BEDROOMS
• OUTDOOR HANGOUT
• GARDEN
• PLAY AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $525 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,343 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Milford ISD (rural): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #1,086 of 1,141 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.99%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $217,678
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -42.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1105 Shabazz St	0.00mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,104 (0%)	0mo	$125,000	$113	95
370 S Pecan St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+11%)	0mo	$244,900	$199	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.5% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $80,965
• Equity at exit: $90,721

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.00×
• Total profit: $210,148
• Equity at exit: $176,175

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76670

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,787 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,157/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $525

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,123

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-03-13
   listed $125,000 Active 781-char remark

   Show marketing remark (781 chars)

   Contractor Special in Milford! If you’ve been hunting for a true diamond in the rough, this 4 bedroom, 1 bath home is calling your name. Sitting in a quiet small-town setting, this place has great bones and tons of potential—just bring your Pinterest boards and some elbow grease to turn it into something amazing. Inside, you’ll find a classic layout with plenty of space to rework and modernize. The extra bedrooms offer flexibility for an office, guest room, or whatever you need. Outside, there’s room to create a great outdoor hangout, garden, or play area. Whether you’re looking for your next project, a flip, or a future rental property, this one is a solid opportunity. Home is being sold AS-IS-come see the vision and make it your own!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,157 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$130/yr (+$11/mo · 6.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,450
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,157
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,716
• − Management: −$1,716
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $4,597
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,103
• After-tax cash flow: $5,194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Milford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830780
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $47,400
• Composite: 22.85/100
• National rank: #13398
• State rank: #1086 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Milford

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1343
• US rank: #23142

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Milford, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,921

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 16% Two or more races 14% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.50%
• Current HPI: 311.8126
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $125,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,157 · +14.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.