21548 Walnut St · Lost Bridge Village, AR 72732

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Manufactured public records · 282 Days on market

Built 1970 5,662 sqft lot $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sold before print.

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Updated cabin
• Island seating

Tags

• UPDATED CABIN
• FULLY FURNISHED
• OPEN KITCHEN
• DINING NOOK
• ISLAND SEATING
• SCREENED IN PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Lost Bridge Village community; HOA fee $160 annually; Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, playground, recreation area, tennis courts, lake access, park, community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Carport with 1 covered space
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces south; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Wood siding; Architectural shingle roof; Shingle roof; Built 25+ years ago
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Gravel driveway; Near park; Sloped lot; Beaver Lake nearby

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Split bedroom layout
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $759 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 2.8% in Lost Bridge Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#348 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B; Watch: cost of living C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Rogers School District (urban): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #31 of 238 in AR (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 282 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $97k; list at $160k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 282 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.34%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $110,230
• Equity at exit: $117,308

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.33×
• Total profit: $283,732
• Equity at exit: $228,917

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72732

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,183 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $554/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $759

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,221

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $850	-5% $805	+0% $759	+5% $714	+10% $669
Rent	-10% $587	-5% $673	+0% $759	+5% $846	+10% $932
Rate	-1.0pp $840	-0.5pp $800	base $759	+0.5pp $718	+1.0pp $676

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-30
   price $160,000
3. 2025-11-16
   price $170,000
4. 2025-10-20
   price $175,000
5. 2025-10-14
   price $180,000
6. 2025-09-08
   price $185,000
7. 2025-09-05
   price $195,000
8. 2025-08-27
   price $205,000
9. 2025-07-28
   listed $210,000 Active
10. 2025-02-03
    price $230,000
11. 2020-11-22
    soldstatus $97,020 18-char remark

    Show marketing remark (18 chars)

    Sold before print.

12. 2020-11-22
    listed $100,000 18-char remark

    Show marketing remark (18 chars)

    Sold before print.

13. 2015-06-19
    soldstatus $37,000
14. 2014-08-05
    listed $44,000
15. 2005-07-06
    soldstatus $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $554 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,024 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$470/yr (+$39/mo · 84.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,192
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$554
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,095
• − Management: −$2,095
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $6,874
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,650
• After-tax cash flow: $7,463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rogers School District
• NCES district ID: 0511970
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 38.81/100
• National rank: #4113
• State rank: #31 of 238 in AR

Livability — Lost Bridge Village

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #348
• US rank: #21912

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lost Bridge Village, AR
• Population (ZIP): 5,493

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 318,683 people
• By 2030: 353,481 · +10.9%
• By 2040: 425,280 · +33.4%
• By 2050: 497,239 · +56.0%
• By 2075: 662,114 · +107.8%
• By 2100: 776,431 · +143.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Two or more races 27% Hispanic / Latino 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Danish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.2% · R 62.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -36.5pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+36.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.61%
• Current HPI: 368.3932
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+171.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — NWARMLS
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $160,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-11-16 Price Changed $170,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $175,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $180,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $185,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $195,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $205,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-07-28 Listed $210,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-02-03 Price Changed $230,000 NWARMLS
• 2020-11-22 Listed $100,000 NWARMLS
• 2020-11-22 Sold (MLS) $97,020 NWARMLS
• 2015-06-19 Sold (MLS) $37,000 NWARMLS
• 2014-08-05 Listed $44,000 NWARMLS
• 2005-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $554 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.