415 M St · Louisville, KY 40208

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,014 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 1900 3,437 sqft lot Est $171k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 3,437 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1900

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with rear entry (1 garage space)
• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence (Shotgun style); One story; Built in 1900
• Construction: Vinyl siding and wood frame construction; Crawl space foundation; Other-style roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Lot dimensions approximately 26 x 140

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen located on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the first floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; One HVAC unit
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Five closets; One fireplace on the first floor; Bonus room; Other additional room on the first floor; No basement
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $822 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 77 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,062/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($40k/yr) (locally 1136% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $88k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.17%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $171,190
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
414 M St	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,998 (-1%)	1mo	$144,100	$72	88
717 Creel Ave	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,996 (-1%)	9mo	$170,000	$85	72
415 Creel Ave	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,978 (-2%)	19mo	$175,000	$88	67
517 Compton St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,921 (-5%)	9mo	$161,430	$84	65
716 Algonquin Pkwy	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,108 (+5%)	6mo	$96,000	$46	63
1036 Tennessee Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	2,150 (+7%)	3mo	$199,900	$93	59
742 Colorado Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,799 (-11%)	3mo	$120,000	$67	53
911 Winkler Ave	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,834 (-9%)	17mo	$211,000	$115	40
1204 Larchmont Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,862 (-8%)	14mo	$215,000	$115	38
3208 Bohannon Ave	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,205 (+10%)	20mo	$100,000	$45	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $38,608
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.70×
• Total profit: $129,571
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40208

• Home prices YoY: -23.3%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,062 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,197/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $822

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,022

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2718 S 3rd St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,800	$1.40	11d	1	0.14mi
2711 S 3rd St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,400	$1.33	11d	1	0.18mi
510 Colorado Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,750	$1.17	23d	1	0.37mi
516 Colorado Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	2000	$1,800	$0.90	15d	1	0.37mi
3102 Grant Ave Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,595	$1.00	23d	1	0.50mi
4007 Southern Pkwy Unit 1 Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1500	$1,395	$0.93	3d	1	0.88mi
2125 Crittenden Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	16d	1	1.00mi
925 W Evelyn Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1520	$1,650	$1.09	23d	1	1.01mi
1479 S 4th St Unit 2A Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	2400	$2,200	$0.92	15d	1	1.23mi
717 Lynn St Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	1796	$2,400	$1.34	23d	1	1.30mi
825 Parkway Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,600	$1.05	15d	1	1.45mi
1390 S 1st St Unit 1390-1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1450	$1,350	$0.93	14d	1	1.48mi
4513 S 6th St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1581	$2,650	$1.68	23d	1	1.48mi
1375 S 1st St Louisville, KY	4.0	3.0	2470	$2,400	$0.97	23d	1	1.49mi
1382 S 1st St Unit 1382-10 Carriage House Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,900	$1.27	3d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,197 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,197 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,743
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,197
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,979
• − Management: −$1,979
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $8,324
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,998
• After-tax cash flow: $7,861/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 15,605
• Household income: $39,560
• Rent vs Own: 73.8% rent · 26.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1136.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 22% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.97%
• Current HPI: 240.6261
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.06%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+316.7% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $125,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-09-30 Rental Removed $1,050 MSMLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $1,050 MSMLS
• 2025-07-04 Price Changed $1,150 MSMLS
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $125,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $130,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-04-29 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-04-17 Price Changed $130,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-03-26 Listed for Rent $1,300 MSMLS
• 2025-03-21 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-03-10 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-02-28 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-02-24 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-01-21 Listed $135,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2020-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $88,500 Public Records
• 2020-03-31 Sold (MLS) $88,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2020-03-02 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2020-01-28 Listed $105,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2019-12-31 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2019-12-18 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2019-11-11 Listed $87,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2019-11-11 Listed $87,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2019-11-04 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2019-09-17 Listed $87,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2018-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,197 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.