1719 Lower Hopedale Rd · Burlington, NC 27217

$169,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 942 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1941 0.44 ac lot Est $200k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lender Owned Property. All Offers Must Have A Pre-Qualification Letter From Countrywide Home Loans. Buyer To Get A Free Appraisal And Credit Report If Financed Through Countrywide. There Is A Recorded Joint Driveway & Garage Agreement For The Shared Driveway & Garage. Laundry Area Is On Enclosed Back Porch.

Key facts

• New paint
• 0.44 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• NEW PAINT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.6% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#123 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Alamance-Burlington Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #133 of 178 in NC (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: R Homer Andrews Elementary (math 18% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,153 of 1,410 statewide, top 82%, 522 students, 99% FRL); Hugh M Cummings High (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #474 of 535 statewide, top 90%, 981 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 51% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 273 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,466 units permitted in Alamance County in 2024 (403 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alamance County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $170k implies a 372% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,391 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.51%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $199,704
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
159 Hazel Dr	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,005 (+7%)	2mo	$235,000	$234	68
903 N Park Rd	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	910 (-3%)	15mo	$116,000	$127	63
905 N Park Rd	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	824 (-12%)	6mo	$142,000	$172	55
1116 Rauhut St	0.61mi	3/1.0	948 (+1%)	19mo	$214,000	$226	55
141 Saige Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,070 (+14%)	8mo	$245,000	$229	41
1422 Duggins Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,040 (+10%)	12mo	$220,000	$212	39
1704 Glenn St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,051 (+12%)	16mo	$180,000	$171	38
1427 Duggins Dr	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,050 (+12%)	8mo	$216,000	$206	38
1450 Cross Country Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+12%)	23mo	$238,000	$225	35
1215 Westmoreland Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,047 (+11%)	17mo	$215,000	$205	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-21,554
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-18,732
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27217

• Home prices YoY: -22.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,464 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $668/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,288

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
824 Chandler Ave Burlington, NC	2.0	1.0	750	$1,275	$1.70	13d	1	0.59mi
1000 Camden St Burlington, NC	2.0	1.0	600	$1,095	$1.82	13d	1	0.97mi
1055 Baldwin Ridge Rd Burlington, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,799	$1.76	13d	19	1.13mi
525 Lakeside Ave Burlington, NC	3.0	1.0	975	$1,300	$1.33	21d	1	1.15mi
654 Lakeside Ave Unit 654 Burlington, NC	2.0	1.0	830	$1,125	$1.36	13d	1	1.16mi
306 N Ireland St Unit 306 Burlington, NC	2.0	1.0	807	$1,250	$1.55	21d	1	1.24mi
910 N Main St Unit A Burlington, NC	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,395	$1.27	13d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-29
   listed $169,900 Active
3. 2009-02-20
   historical
4. 2008-06-30
   listed $79,900
5. 2008-01-09
   soldstatus $36,000 320-char remark

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   Lender Owned Property. All Offers Must Have A Pre-Qualification Letter From Countrywide Home Loans. Buyer To Get A Free Appraisal And Credit Report If Financed Through Countrywide. There Is A Recorded Joint Driveway & Garage Agreement For The Shared Driveway & Garage. Laundry Area Is On Enclosed Back Porch.

6. 2008-01-09
   soldstatus $36,000 320-char remark

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   Lender Owned Property. All Offers Must Have A Pre-Qualification Letter From Countrywide Home Loans. Buyer To Get A Free Appraisal And Credit Report If Financed Through Countrywide. There Is A Recorded Joint Driveway & Garage Agreement For The Shared Driveway & Garage. Laundry Area Is On Enclosed Back Porch.

7. 2007-08-16
   listed $40,900 320-char remark

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   Lender Owned Property. All Offers Must Have A Pre-Qualification Letter From Countrywide Home Loans. Buyer To Get A Free Appraisal And Credit Report If Financed Through Countrywide. There Is A Recorded Joint Driveway & Garage Agreement For The Shared Driveway & Garage. Laundry Area Is On Enclosed Back Porch.

8. 2007-08-16
   listed $40,900 320-char remark

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   Lender Owned Property. All Offers Must Have A Pre-Qualification Letter From Countrywide Home Loans. Buyer To Get A Free Appraisal And Credit Report If Financed Through Countrywide. There Is A Recorded Joint Driveway & Garage Agreement For The Shared Driveway & Garage. Laundry Area Is On Enclosed Back Porch.

9. 2004-05-01
   historical
10. 2004-03-26
    soldstatus $84,000
11. 2003-11-01
    listed $86,000
12. 2003-08-31
    historical
13. 2003-04-28
    listed $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $668 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,393 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$725/yr (+$60/mo · 108.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$668
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,405
• − Management: −$1,405
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$1,221
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$293
• After-tax cash flow: $1,961/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamance-Burlington Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,359
• Composite: 29.68/100
• National rank: #6460
• State rank: #133 of 178 in NC

Livability — Burlington

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #7396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Alamance County · 173,369 people
• City population: 88,508
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• Population (ZIP): 41,406
• Household income: $51,950
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1040.0

Population outlook (Alamance County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 173,381 people
• By 2030: 180,609 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 194,327 · +12.1%
• By 2050: 206,158 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 235,665 · +35.9%
• By 2100: 258,626 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Alamance

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.2) · D 45.4% · R 53.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.1pp toward D · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -8.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.2 2020: R+8.4 2016: R+12.9 2012: R+14.1 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.45%
• Current HPI: 259.8107
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+277.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-03-29 Listed $169,900 TMLS
• 2009-02-20 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2008-06-30 Listed $79,900 TMLS
• 2008-01-09 Sold (MLS) $36,000 TMLS
• 2008-01-09 Sold (MLS) $36,000 AMLSNC
• 2007-08-16 Listed $40,900 TMLS
• 2007-08-16 Listed $40,900 AMLSNC
• 2004-05-01 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2004-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 2003-11-01 Listed $86,000 TMLS
• 2003-08-31 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2003-04-28 Listed $45,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $668 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.