7010 Jorgensen Ln S · Cottage Grove, MN 55016

$279,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,252 sqft · Townhouse public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2002 1,829 sqft lot $253/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller may consider buyer concessions if made in an offer. Welcome home to this charming property! This home has Fresh Interior Paint and partial flooring replacement in some areas. Discover a bright interior tied together with a neutral color palette. Relax in your primary suite with a walk-in closet included The primary bathroom features plenty of under-sink storage waiting for your home organization needs. Like what you hear? Come see it for yourself! This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential.

Key facts

• End unit
• Natural light
• Move in ready

Tags

• END UNIT
• ARTISTIC ACCENT WALLS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• MOVE IN READY
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA managed by Sharper Management; Monthly association fee of $253; HOA covers hazard insurance, lawn care, professional management, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached tuck-under garage with insulated door and opener; 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas; Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Residential attached property; Two levels; Entry level includes main and upper levels
• Construction: Block and frame construction; Block foundation; 704 sq ft foundation area
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Sod included; Medium tree coverage; Stone and vinyl exterior; Deck; City street frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (two upper level, one main level)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (upper level)
• Interior features: Renovated; Informal dining room; Deck
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on main level; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-188 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in Cottage Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#132 in MN, #2,948 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• South Washington County School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #40 of 301 in MN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 401 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 8% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $230k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $237,905 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.87%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-55,309
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-55,232
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55016

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 401
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,379 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$230 /mo · $2,756/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$253
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $-188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,617

Max offer price $246,748

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6884 Jody Ave S Cottage Grove, MN	3.0	3.0	1696	$2,500	$1.47	17d	1	0.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $253 · $3,036/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Coming Soon 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Coming Soon 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $279,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,756 · $230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,945 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: +$189/yr (+$16/mo · 6.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,549
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$2,756
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,284
• − Management: −$2,284
• − HOA: −$3,036
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$7,032
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,688
• After-tax cash flow: $-564/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Washington County School District
• NCES district ID: 2733810
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $88,285
• Composite: 51.8/100
• National rank: #1670
• State rank: #40 of 301 in MN

Livability — Cottage Grove

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #2948

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cottage Grove, MN
• County: Washington County · 235,613 people
• City population: 40,695
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 40,695
• Household income: $120,715
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 323.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 5% Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -258.55%
• Current HPI: 241.1084
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.78%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-81.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Coming Soon $279,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $230,500 Public Records
• 2025-08-29 Sold (MLS) $230,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-06 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $234,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $237,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $245,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $248,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-17 Price Changed $254,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-07 Listed $258,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $222,100 Public Records
• 2016-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $148,000 Public Records
• 2016-08-11 Sold (MLS) $148,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-11 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-04 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-30 Listed $144,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $151,710 Public Records
• 2001-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $1,505,514 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,756 · +12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.