3A Justin Dr · Jacksonville, IL 62650

$124,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,084 sqft · SingleFamily · 102 Days on market

Built 1978 6,210 sqft lot $115/sqft · 12% below area Est $142k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Condo in Mint condition. Open the doors to a huge living room and and updated kitchen with granite counters. 2 big bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms. Large backyard is fenced with deck.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1978
• Listed 101 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-61 ($-735/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $114k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (8.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#187 in IL, #3,543 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, commute F.
• Jacksonville SD 117 (town): math 20% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #407 of 620 in IL (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Eisenhower Elem School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #586 of 2,056 statewide, top 31%, 313 students, 0% FRL); Jacksonville Middle School (math 17% / reading 19%, grade F, #444 of 665 statewide, top 67%, 718 students, 0% FRL); Jacksonville High School (math 21% / reading 25%, grade F, #312 of 693 statewide, top 46%, 893 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 51% district-wide (51 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Morgan County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $113,659 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.10%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $142,298
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -12.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 Sunset Dr	0.35mi	2/1.0	1,120 (+3%)	2mo	$140,000	$125	72
121 City Pl	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,177 (+9%)	5mo	$127,000	$108	58
1845 Cedar St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,118 (+3%)	8mo	$170,000	$152	57
1203 W Chambers St	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,052 (-3%)	11mo	$160,000	$152	56
509 Woodland Pl	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,226 (+13%)	4mo	$145,000	$118	50
310 Woodland Pl	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,200 (+11%)	5mo	$132,500	$110	50
604 Gladstone Rd	0.73mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,156 (+7%)	1mo	$125,750	$109	47
1839 Mound Rd	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,016 (-6%)	20mo	$148,900	$147	45
119 Fairview Ter	0.39mi	2/1.0	1,200 (+11%)	19mo	$161,950	$135	44
208 Locust St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,004 (-7%)	12mo	$136,500	$136	42
1856 Plum St	0.63mi	2/1.0	960 (-11%)	6mo	$129,900	$135	42
610 Gladstone Rd	0.73mi	3/1.5 (+1)	950 (-12%)	19mo	$102,000	$107	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-24,065
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-25,668
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62650

• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,139 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$254 /mo · $3,050/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $-61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,217

Max offer price $114,073

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9	-5% $-26	+0% $-61	+5% $-97	+10% $-132
Rent	-10% $-151	-5% $-106	+0% $-61	+5% $-16	+10% $29
Rate	-1.0pp $2	-0.5pp $-30	base $-61	+0.5pp $-94	+1.0pp $-127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Under Contract 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-12
   days on market $124,900 Under Contract 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Under Contract 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Under Contract 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,900 Under Contract 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,900 Under Contract 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $124,900 Under Contract 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $124,900 Under Contract 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $124,900 Under Contract 90 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Under Contract 89 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Under Contract 88 DOM
12. 2026-05-18
    historical Under Contract 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Condo in Mint condition. Open the doors to a huge living room and and updated kitchen with granite counters. 2 big bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms. Large backyard is fenced with deck.

13. 2026-04-14
    price $124,900 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Condo in Mint condition. Open the doors to a huge living room and and updated kitchen with granite counters. 2 big bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms. Large backyard is fenced with deck.

14. 2026-03-19
    price $129,900 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Condo in Mint condition. Open the doors to a huge living room and and updated kitchen with granite counters. 2 big bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms. Large backyard is fenced with deck.

15. 2026-03-03
    listed $135,000 Active 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Condo in Mint condition. Open the doors to a huge living room and and updated kitchen with granite counters. 2 big bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms. Large backyard is fenced with deck.

16. 2023-11-16
    soldstatus $112,000 Closed 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Attractive condo in MINT condition! Open the doors to a super sized living room and an updated kitchen with GRANITE counters and appliances! 2 big bedrooms, 2 FULL bathrooms ----a hard to find amenity in this price range! Large backyard is fenced with deck, fish pond and a oversized shed to use for all your storage needs. Bring your electric car, this home is equipped with a charging port in the garage. Welcome home to 3A Justin Dr where you can sit back, relax and enjoy home ownership!

17. 2023-10-17
    status Pending 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Attractive condo in MINT condition! Open the doors to a super sized living room and an updated kitchen with GRANITE counters and appliances! 2 big bedrooms, 2 FULL bathrooms ----a hard to find amenity in this price range! Large backyard is fenced with deck, fish pond and a oversized shed to use for all your storage needs. Bring your electric car, this home is equipped with a charging port in the garage. Welcome home to 3A Justin Dr where you can sit back, relax and enjoy home ownership!

18. 2023-10-07
    listed $119,900 Active 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Attractive condo in MINT condition! Open the doors to a super sized living room and an updated kitchen with GRANITE counters and appliances! 2 big bedrooms, 2 FULL bathrooms ----a hard to find amenity in this price range! Large backyard is fenced with deck, fish pond and a oversized shed to use for all your storage needs. Bring your electric car, this home is equipped with a charging port in the garage. Welcome home to 3A Justin Dr where you can sit back, relax and enjoy home ownership!

19. 2019-06-05
    soldstatus $77,900
20. 2019-06-05
    soldstatus $77,900
21. 2019-04-01
    listed $79,900
22. 2006-12-04
    soldstatus $87,000
23. 2006-11-22
    soldstatus $87,000
24. 2005-03-03
    soldstatus $77,000
25. 2004-07-15
    soldstatus $72,500
26. 2004-07-15
    soldstatus $72,500
27. 2004-05-27
    listed $73,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,050 · $254/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,050 · $254/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,669
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$3,050
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,094
• − Management: −$1,094
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$2,822
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$677
• After-tax cash flow: $-58/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jacksonville SD 117
• NCES district ID: 1720280
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,909
• Composite: 18.66/100
• National rank: #8888
• State rank: #407 of 620 in IL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #3543

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, IL
• City population: 24,318
• Population (ZIP): 24,318

Population outlook (Morgan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,874 people
• By 2030: 31,698 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 29,050 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 26,381 · -19.8%
• By 2075: 20,235 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 14,324 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Morgan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.5) · D 33.1% · R 65.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.7pp toward R · 2008: -0.8pp · 2024: -32.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.5 2020: R+31.8 2016: R+29.9 2012: R+15.4 2008: R+0.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.33%
• Current HPI: 126.5712
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+69.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Contingent — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $124,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $129,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Listed $135,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-16 Sold (MLS) $112,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-17 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-07 Listed $119,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $77,900 Public Records
• 2019-06-05 Sold (MLS) $77,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-01 Listed $79,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 2006-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 2005-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2004-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $72,500 Public Records
• 2004-07-15 Sold (MLS) $72,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-05-27 Listed $73,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,050 · -15.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.