6614 Ashley Ct · Pecan Plantation, TX 76049

$135,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,492 sqft · Manufactured public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1983 4,312 sqft lot $90/sqft · 8% above area Est $124k · 8% over $8/mo HOA ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• ARV discount +3.7/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity in Granbury for buyers looking to add value! Situated on a quiet cul-de-sac, this home offers solid potential but will require extensive updates and repairs. Perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers ready to create their vision. With the right improvements, this property could truly shine. Being sold as-is. Buyer to verify all measurements.

Key facts

• 4,312 sq ft lot
• Built 1983
• Listed 77 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $731 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 2.3% in Pecan Plantation — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#362 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 690 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.21%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $124,450
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: 8.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4640 Lyndi Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-8%)	3mo	$175,000	$128	75
6708 Timberhaven Ct	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-6%)	2mo	$205,000	$146	75
4987 Blue Water Cir	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,624 (+9%)	2mo	$84,444	$52	73
6601 Oakwood Lake Ct	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,624 (+9%)	3mo	$100,000	$62	72
4967 Blue Water Cir	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-6%)	6mo	$146,900	$105	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $29,330
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.79×
• Total profit: $105,398
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76049

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 690
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,047 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,366/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $731

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,122

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4938 Blue Water Cir Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,650	$1.62	16d	1	0.17mi
4938 Blue Water Cir Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,700	$1.67	43d	1	0.17mi
6505 Christa Ct Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1368	$2,700	$1.97	43d	1	0.19mi
3712 Mandy Dr Unit 2 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,300	$1.12	22d	1	0.93mi
3712 Mandy Dr Unit 1 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1112	$1,300	$1.17	18d	1	0.93mi
3802 Juniper Ct Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,900	$1.12	43d	1	0.95mi
3705 Mandy Dr #2 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,400	$1.21	24d	1	0.97mi
350 Azalea Trl Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1510	$2,000	$1.32	43d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $135,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    price $135,000 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    Great opportunity in Granbury for buyers looking to add value! Situated on a quiet cul-de-sac, this home offers solid potential but will require extensive updates and repairs. Perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers ready to create their vision. With the right improvements, this property could truly shine. Being sold as-is. Buyer to verify all measurements.

15. 2026-04-29
    price $139,900 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    Great opportunity in Granbury for buyers looking to add value! Situated on a quiet cul-de-sac, this home offers solid potential but will require extensive updates and repairs. Perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers ready to create their vision. With the right improvements, this property could truly shine. Being sold as-is. Buyer to verify all measurements.

16. 2026-04-02
    listed $149,900 Active 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    Great opportunity in Granbury for buyers looking to add value! Situated on a quiet cul-de-sac, this home offers solid potential but will require extensive updates and repairs. Perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers ready to create their vision. With the right improvements, this property could truly shine. Being sold as-is. Buyer to verify all measurements.

17. 2023-09-10
    price $120,000
18. 2023-08-17
    listed $130,000 Active
19. 2023-04-04
    historical
20. 2023-02-05
    price $132,000
21. 2023-01-24
    price $136,000
22. 2022-12-23
    price $145,000
23. 2022-12-15
    soldstatus
24. 2022-12-13
    listed $152,000 Active
25. 2016-09-29
    soldstatus
26. 2004-07-22
    soldstatus
27. 2004-03-23
    soldstatus
28. 2003-03-06
    soldstatus
29. 1988-03-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,366 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,104/yr (+$92/mo · 80.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,366
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,965
• − Management: −$1,965
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $7,009
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,682
• After-tax cash flow: $7,093/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pecan Plantation

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #362
• US rank: #7773

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,506
• Household income: $104,967
• Rent vs Own: 12.3% rent · 87.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.09%
• Current HPI: 273.1293
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.20%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $139,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $149,900 NTREIS
• 2023-09-10 Price Changed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2023-08-17 Listed $130,000 NTREIS
• 2023-04-04 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-02-05 Price Changed $132,000 NTREIS
• 2023-01-24 Price Changed $136,000 NTREIS
• 2022-12-23 Price Changed $145,000 NTREIS
• 2022-12-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-12-13 Listed $152,000 NTREIS
• 2016-09-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-07-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-03-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-03-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,366 · -8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.