14807 Cold Water Dr · Cove, TX 77523

$289,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,516 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 6,621 sqft lot Garage $191/sqft · 6% below area Est $307k · 6% under $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the prestigious Barbers Hill Independent School district, this home boasts a large primary bedroom with a spacious bathroom and walk-in closet. The open floor plan and high ceilings add a touch of grandeur, while the kitchen island and walk-in pantry provide ample storage space. Step outside to the covered patio and enjoy the expansive backyard. Don't miss out on the opportunity to own this exquisite property!

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Kitchen island
• Expansive backyard

Tags

• KITCHEN ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• COVERED PATIO
• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-251 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 1127 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 85d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 79% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $230,101 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.71%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,451
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: -5.71%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6910 Bens Lndg	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-0%)	4mo	$280,790	$186	84
610 Lost Creek Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-7%)	4mo	$255,000	$181	79
14531 Sweetwater Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,516 (0%)	4mo	$269,999	$178	79
7122 Thomas James Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+4%)	3mo	$286,920	$182	75
6727 Camila St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-1%)	4mo	$259,000	$173	74
407 Turtle Oak Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,636 (+8%)	1mo	$287,500	$176	72
6715 Camila St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-7%)	2mo	$264,960	$188	66
603 Walnut Branch Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,697 (+12%)	2mo	$299,000	$176	65
14507 Sweet Water Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,636 (+8%)	3mo	$289,000	$177	63
411 Walnut Branch Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,697 (+12%)	2mo	$287,500	$169	62
6715 Pebble Bluff Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,501 (-1%)	4mo	$289,990	$193	62
6718 Camila St	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,682 (+11%)	1mo	$319,530	$190	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-61,915
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-70,158
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 42 active · 38 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.9 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $297,495 ($182/sqft)
• Median days on market: 126 d
• This list price: 43% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +11.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 1127
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,301 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$365 /mo · $4,378/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,619

Max offer price $245,550

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-87	-5% $-169	+0% $-251	+5% $-333	+10% $-415
Rent	-10% $-433	-5% $-342	+0% $-251	+5% $-160	+10% $-69
Rate	-1.0pp $-105	-0.5pp $-177	base $-251	+0.5pp $-326	+1.0pp $-403

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	184d	1	0.19mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	142d	1	0.23mi
15114 Diamond Way Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,671	$1.11	119d	1	0.37mi
15214 Harlin Baytown, TX	4.0	3.0	2139	$2,400	$1.12	121d	1	0.39mi
131 Brazos Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1857	$2,211	$1.19	99d	1	0.44mi
15218 Arnold Cove, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,300	$1.31	83d	1	0.49mi
5927 Golden Cove Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1166	$1,700	$1.46	100d	1	0.82mi
5914 Treasure Cove Rd Cove, TX	3.0	3.0	2042	$1,645	$0.81	55d	1	0.85mi
5822 Sapphire Lagoon Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,800	$1.35	9d	1	0.90mi
5822 Sapphire Lagoon Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,935	$1.45	48d	1	0.90mi
5823 Littoral Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,916	$1.36	74d	1	0.93mi
14143 Medina Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,495	$1.19	78d	1	0.95mi
5815 Littoral Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,886	$1.45	85d	1	0.95mi
5727 Littoral Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.5	1882	$2,036	$1.08	85d	1	0.99mi
5719 Rainbow Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1415	$1,479	$1.05	10d	1	1.00mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$1,945	$0.95	1d	1	1.14mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$1,986	$0.97	21d	1	1.14mi
8015 Distant Harbor Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,801	$1.27	99d	1	1.15mi
7514 Oakmont Ave Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1932	$2,611	$1.35	115d	1	1.31mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Managed by Prestige Association ManagementAnnual association fee of $750

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2021Single-story (entry level not specified)Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Brick constructionComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heatingCentral electric cooling (Central Air)
• Interior features: Double vanity

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $289,900 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $289,900 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-04-29
   listed $289,900 Active 424-char remark
4. 2022-11-08
   status Pending, Continue to Show
5. 2022-11-08
   historical
6. 2022-10-24
   price $274,990
7. 2022-10-19
   price $279,990
8. 2022-10-05
   price $295,990
9. 2022-09-21
   price $299,990
10. 2022-08-17
    price $307,990
11. 2022-07-29
    price $308,115
12. 2022-07-17
    listed $304,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,378 · $365/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,305 · $442/mo
• Expected delta: +$928/yr (+$77/mo · 21.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,612
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$4,378
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,209
• − Management: −$2,209
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$8,061
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,935
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,078/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,580–$22,740 screening

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a modern kitchen and bathrooms, and is located in a desirable school district. The exterior and landscaping are well-maintained, and there are no major repairs needed. The home is move-in ready and would be a great investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 46,946 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

---

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Managed by Prestige Association ManagementAnnual association fee of $750

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2021Single-story (entry level not specified)Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Brick constructionComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heatingCentral electric cooling (Central Air)
• Interior features: Double vanity

Price history

-4.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $289,900 HARMLS
• 2022-11-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-11-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-10-24 Price Changed $274,990 HARMLS
• 2022-10-19 Price Changed $279,990 HARMLS
• 2022-10-05 Price Changed $295,990 HARMLS
• 2022-09-21 Price Changed $299,990 HARMLS
• 2022-08-17 Price Changed $307,990 HARMLS
• 2022-07-29 Price Changed $308,115 HARMLS
• 2022-07-17 Listed $304,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+13.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,378 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.