Aquila Plan · Brookshire, TX 77423

$249,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,772 sqft · SingleFamily · 586 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

With convenience at the forefront, our Aquila floor plan will meet the lifestyle needs of most any family. Boasting 3 bedrooms and two full bathrooms, this single-story home is the perfect size for growing families or empty-nesters alike. As soon as you open the door, you are greeted by an elegant entryway that leads to the secondary and third bedrooms with the secondary bathroom in between. Down the hall, you'll pass the two-car garage. If you find yourself needing more storage space in the garage, opt for the larger garage and turn it into a 2.5-car or 3-car garage! Across from the other bedrooms resides the remote Master Bedroom. The attached Master Bathroom consists of a large vanity with cultured marble countertops and a huge walk-in closet. Looking to add an extra spark to the master bathroom? Choose to revamp your bathroom with a master luxury bath with a bathtub and separate shower, or a master super shower instead of a bathtub! The opportunities are endless. Tying the space together is the large family room with nine-foot ceilings, and the welcoming dining area the kitchen. The gorgeous kitchen includes sleek granite countertops, flat-panel countertops, and a wide kitchen island that is perfect for added counter space. You'll love entertaining your guests with the open-concept feel of the kitchen, dining room, and family room! Also, the sizable walk-in pantry will help store all of your essentials and more. Off the dining room, you will find the optional covered. ..

Key facts

• Large vanity
• Elegant entryway
• Aquila floor plan

Tags

• AQUILA FLOOR PLAN
• ELEGANT ENTRYWAY
• REMOTE MASTER BEDROOM
• ATTACHED MASTER BATHROOM
• LARGE VANITY
• CULTURED MARBLE COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $249,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $272,183.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.3% in Brookshire — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1559 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 586 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $215,226 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 586 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.85%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,183
• List price: $249,990
• Delta: -8.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3017 Mistflower Trl	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,898 (+7%)	2mo	$284,990	$150	77
3020 Bristlegrass St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,898 (+7%)	7mo	$289,990	$153	76
3041 Mistflower Trl	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,898 (+7%)	0mo	$289,990	$153	75
3001 Mistflower Trl	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,920 (+8%)	1mo	$299,990	$156	75
3004 Mistflower Trl	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,898 (+7%)	6mo	$289,990	$153	74
3017 Mustang Grove Way	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,920 (+8%)	0mo	$299,990	$156	73
3016 Bristlegrass St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,961 (+11%)	8mo	$324,990	$166	69
3016 Sunflower Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,604 (-10%)	6mo	$244,990	$153	69
3036 Mistflower Trl	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,920 (+8%)	5mo	$314,990	$164	68
3021 Bristlegrass St	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,961 (+11%)	3mo	$294,990	$150	66
3057 Plateau Dr	0.20mi	3/2.5	2,026 (+14%)	2mo	$295,175	$146	63
3045 Buckthorn Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5	2,026 (+14%)	7mo	$328,484	$162	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-61,890
• Equity at exit: $40,583

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-92,957
• Equity at exit: $23,533

Cash invested: $76,211 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 37 active · 16 under contract
• Months of supply: 17.1 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $303,380 ($155/sqft)
• Median days on market: 69 d
• This list price: 5% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1559
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,152 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,427
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$340 /mo · $4,083/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,381

Max offer price $246,034

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7	-5% $-87	+0% $-181	+5% $-275	+10% $-369
Rent	-10% $-351	-5% $-266	+0% $-181	+5% $-96	+10% $-11
Rate	-1.0pp $-44	-0.5pp $-111	base $-181	+0.5pp $-251	+1.0pp $-323

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,046
• Closing costs: $8,166
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3005 Wood Lily Dr Brookshire, TX	4.0	3.0	1751	$1,975	$1.13	2d	1	0.16mi
3001 Wild Indigo Trl Brookshire, TX	4.0	3.0	1751	$1,975	$1.13	10d	1	0.17mi
3045 Wood Lily Dr Brookshire, TX	4.0	2.0	1534	$1,850	$1.21	184d	1	0.23mi
3040 Chestnut Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	3.0	2065	$2,800	$1.36	43d	1	0.33mi
450 Road Runner Ln Brookshire, TX	3.0	2.0	1792	$1,800	$1.00	35d	1	0.52mi
450 Road Runner Ln Brookshire, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,800	$1.06	10d	1	0.52mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $249,990 Active 586 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $249,990 Active 585 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $249,990 Active 584 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $249,990 Active 583 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $249,990 Active 582 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $249,990 Active 580 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $249,990 Active 579 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $249,990 Active 578 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $249,990 Active 577 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $249,990 Active 576 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $249,990 Active 575 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $249,990 Active 574 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $249,990 Active 573 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $249,990 Active 572 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $249,990 Active 571 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $249,990 Active 570 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $249,990 Active 569 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $249,990 Active 568 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $249,990 Active 567 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $249,990 Active 566 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $249,990 Active 565 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    pricedays on market $249,990 Active 564 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $260,990 Active 563 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $260,990 Active 562 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $260,990 Active 561 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $260,990 Active 560 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $260,990 Active 559 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $260,990 Active 558 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $260,990 Active 557 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $260,990 Active 556 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $260,990 Active 555 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $260,990 Active 554 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $260,990 Active 553 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $260,990 Active 552 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $260,990 Active 551 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $260,990 Active 550 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $260,990 Active 549 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $260,990 Active 548 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $260,990 Active 547 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $260,990 Active 546 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $260,990 Active 545 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $260,990 Active 544 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $260,990 Active 543 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $260,990 Active 542 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $260,990 Active 541 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $260,990 Active 540 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $260,990 Active 539 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $260,990 Active 538 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $260,990 Active 537 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $260,990 Active 536 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,827
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,247
• − Property taxes: −$4,083
• − Insurance: −$1,361
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,066
• − Management: −$2,066
• − Depreciation: −$7,918
• Taxable loss: −$6,913
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,659
• After-tax cash flow: $-509/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior and interior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and functionality.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — A smart home system can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal El F TX #3,247/4,322 Nat'l #31,549/41,679 Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Brookshire

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #960
• US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 60,772 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-04-01 Listed $260,990 Zillow