1366 Michigan Ave Ave · Buffalo, NY 14209

$159,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,093 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1890 4,125 sqft lot Est $280k · 43% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Stunning 1890 build Buffalo home located near Main St. boasts 2,093sq. ft. Roof, water heater, and furnace were all replaced in 2018. Original woodwork is still present in the home and large windows allow for plenty of natural light. Large kitchen, formal dining room, full bathroom, spacious living room, and bonus room all on the first floor. Second floor contains 4 bedrooms, laundry room and a bathroom that has endless renovation possibilities. Full attic for plenty of storage and a large multiple car driveway that leads to an approximate 800sq ft of secure storage space attached to the spacious 2 car garage. New property owner could qualify for the city of Buffalo Homestead plan to purcha

Key facts

• Large windows
• Formal dining room
• 1890 build

Tags

• 1890 BUILD
• ORIGINAL WOODWORK
• LARGE WINDOWS
• LARGE KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $492 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.5%/yr); 56 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,103 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.19%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $280,462
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1366 Michigan Ave Ave	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,093 (0%)	0mo	$145,000	$69	100
220 Best St	0.46mi	4/2.5	2,108 (+1%)	14mo	$219,500	$104	63
76 Lancaster Ave	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,115 (+1%)	5mo	$283,000	$134	58
291 Northampton St	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,806 (-14%)	3mo	$255,000	$141	56
144 Northampton St	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,801 (-14%)	9mo	$44,500	$25	55
825 Auburn Ave	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,236 (+7%)	3mo	$575,000	$257	54
42 Lancaster Ave	0.71mi	4/2.5	1,979 (-5%)	3mo	$448,750	$227	53
41 Brunswick Blvd Blvd	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,054 (-2%)	13mo	$260,000	$127	49
81 Harvard Pl	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,073 (-1%)	19mo	$295,000	$142	45
175 Oxford Ave	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,258 (+8%)	10mo	$434,000	$192	40
28 Coe Pl	0.32mi	4/1.0	1,802 (-14%)	21mo	$50,000	$28	40
285 E North St Unit S	0.64mi	5/1.0 (+1)	1,833 (-12%)	20mo	$75,000	$41	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.86% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $50,642
• Equity at exit: $61,883

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.71×
• Total profit: $166,289
• Equity at exit: $88,211

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14209

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,803 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $325/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $492

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,180

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $583	-5% $537	+0% $492	+5% $264	+10% $209
Rent	-10% $350	-5% $421	+0% $492	+5% $563	+10% $635
Rate	-1.0pp $573	-0.5pp $533	base $492	+0.5pp $451	+1.0pp $409

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
28 Lonsdale Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2735	$1,725	$0.63	44d	1	0.66mi
330 Bryant St Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	2224	$2,200	$0.99	20d	1	0.83mi
82 Butler Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2752	$1,300	$0.47	44d	1	0.84mi
740 Elmwood Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2000	$1,995	$1.00	15d	1	0.88mi
184 Butler Ave Unit 1545840P Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1496	$3,226	$2.16	15d	1	1.00mi
161 16th St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,000	$1.33	24d	1	1.13mi
7 Berkley Pl Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2879	$1,250	$0.43	4d	1	1.16mi
563 Humboldt Pkwy Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2004	$1,200	$0.60	24d	1	1.17mi
73 Inter Park Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2080	$1,300	$0.62	15d	1	1.21mi
184 14th St Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1950	$4,400	$2.26	24d	1	1.23mi
40 Putnam St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	24d	1	1.23mi
405 W Ferry St Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2480	$1,500	$0.60	44d	1	1.25mi
124 Normal Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1727	$2,000	$1.16	24d	1	1.26mi
83 Baynes St Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2550	$1,850	$0.73	15d	1	1.26mi
11 Hoyt St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	2848	$1,775	$0.62	15d	1	1.27mi
518 Wilson St Buffalo, NY	5.0	1.5	1848	$1,500	$0.81	24d	1	1.37mi
501 West Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2552	$1,850	$0.72	20d	1	1.43mi
501 West Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2552	$1,700	$0.67	15d	1	1.43mi
836 Richmond Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	3.5	1982	$4,500	$2.27	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-25
   status Active
3. 2026-02-17
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-05
   listed $159,900 Active
5. 2025-11-25
   historical
6. 2025-11-24
   historical
7. 2025-08-25
   status Pending
8. 2025-08-15
   listed $170,000 Active
9. 2025-02-20
   status Pending
10. 2025-02-19
    historical
11. 2024-09-19
    price $170,000
12. 2024-09-04
    listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $325 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,514 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,189/yr (+$99/mo · 365.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$325
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,731
• − Management: −$1,731
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $3,441
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$826
• After-tax cash flow: $5,080/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 8,313
• Household income: $50,046
• Rent vs Own: 66.3% rent · 33.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.86%
• Current HPI: 443.9414
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.53%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-13.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-25 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-17 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $159,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-11-25 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-11-24 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-08-25 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-08-15 Listed $170,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-02-20 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-02-19 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-09-19 Price Changed $170,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-09-04 Listed $185,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $325 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.