1936 Nightfall Dr · Venus, TX 76084

$459,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,738 sqft · Land · 99 Days on market

Built 2026 7,144 sqft lot $168/sqft · 9% above area Est $424k · 9% over $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +3.7/15.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Key facts

• 7,144 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $460k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $442k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $333k (27.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $333k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.0% in Venus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Venus ISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #646 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 426 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$59k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($419k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $333,284 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.97%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $423,832
• List price: $459,990
• Delta: 8.53%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $160,843
• Equity at exit: $328,442

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.63×
• Total profit: $467,187
• Equity at exit: $632,862

Cash invested: $128,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,333 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,412
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,202/yr
• Insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$700
• Net cashflow: $-104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,465

Max offer price $441,603

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $114,998
• Closing costs: $13,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1940 Nightfall Dr Alvarado, TX	5.0	3.0	2738	$3,250	$1.19	1d	1	0.03mi
1993 Daybreak Dr Alvarado, TX	5.0	3.5	2825	$3,250	$1.15	1d	1	0.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $459,990 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $459,990 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $459,990 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $459,990 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $459,990 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $459,990 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $459,990 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $459,990 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $459,990 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $459,990 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $459,990 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $459,990 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $459,990 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $459,990 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $459,990
16. 2026-03-11
    listed $479,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,202 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,418 · $701/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,216/yr (+$601/mo · 600.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,994
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,767
• − Property taxes: −$1,202
• − Insurance: −$2,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,200
• − Management: −$3,200
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$13,382
• Taxable loss: −$9,451
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,268
• After-tax cash flow: $1,019/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Venus ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844010
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,394
• Composite: 24.97/100
• National rank: #7563
• State rank: #646 of 826 in TX

Livability — Venus

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #356
• US rank: #7724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Venus, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $459,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $479,990 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,202 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.