280 Timber Lake Cir #201 · Naples, FL 34104

$324,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,281 sqft · Condo · 136 Days on market

Built 1990 Good condition $563/mo HOA · 13% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION… Escape to your very own AFFORDABLE BEACH TREAT, LESS THEN 4 MILES TO THE BEACH or BIKE to the Greenway & Baker Park! This FURNISHED 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, spacious condo has an UPDATED bright & cheery kitchen w/ stainless steel appliances, quartz countertops, pantry cabinets, pull-out trash cans & custom breakfast table. Entertain w/ ease in your open floor plan plus VAULTED ceilings in the living & dining room. A NEW sectional that fits the space so beautifully stays w/ the purchase of this home. All living space flooring has been UPDATED LVT w/ P90 underlayment & all bedrooms have NEW luxurious carpet. Enjoy tranquil WATER

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Pantry cabinets
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• PANTRY CABINETS
• PULL-OUT TRASH CANS
• CUSTOM BREAKFAST TABLE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association pool
• Financial info: Pets allowed with restrictions or possible restrictions
• HOA & community: Quarterly association fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, and tennis courts; Association fee covers management, insurance, legal/accounting, grounds and structure maintenance, parking, recreation facilities, and water

Exterior

• Parking: One parking space
• Security: Security / high impact doors
• Utilities: Cable available; Water included in association fee
• Home design: Attached property; 2-story building; Entry on second floor; Has a view
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Resale property
• Exterior features: Balcony; Screened balcony; Security / high impact doors; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Entry located on second floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Partially furnished; Second floor entry; Impact glass windows; Metal and single-hung windows; Carpet flooring; Laminate flooring; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $325k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $325k).
• Recommended offer: $286k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shadowlawn Elementary School (math 44% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 457 students, 72% FRL); East Naples Middle School (math 56% / reading 44%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 854 students, 63% FRL); Naples High School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,719 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 438 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,497/mo this rent would consume 75% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) (locally 1423% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $285,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.82%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-44,896
• Equity at exit: $48,444

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-61,201
• Equity at exit: $28,091

Cash invested: $90,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34104

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 438
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,497 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$406 /mo · $4,874/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$563
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$944
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,095

Max offer price $324,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $543	-5% $430	+0% $318	+5% $206	+10% $93
Rent	-10% $-37	-5% $140	+0% $318	+5% $496	+10% $673
Rate	-1.0pp $482	-0.5pp $401	base $318	+0.5pp $234	+1.0pp $148

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,225
• Closing costs: $9,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
193 Fox Glen Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1345	$6,500	$4.83	25d	1	0.25mi
882 Bluebird St Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1308	$6,000	$4.59	25d	1	0.35mi
4502 Parrot Ave Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,950	$2.46	25d	1	0.49mi
1075 Foxfire Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$3,300	$3.02	25d	3	0.52mi
5110 Brixton Ct Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1717	$9,500	$5.53	22d	1	0.55mi
443 Dundee Ct Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1766	$8,000	$4.53	25d	1	0.69mi
697 Crossfield Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1764	$7,500	$4.25	25d	1	0.76mi
4210 Looking Glass Ln Unit 4210 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1300	$3,000	$2.31	15d	1	0.83mi
4060 Ice Castle Way #10 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1246	$3,600	$2.89	15d	1	0.83mi
4180 Looking Glass Ln Unit 4104 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1246	$4,000	$3.21	15d	1	0.84mi
1111 Central Dr Unit 417A Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1265	$6,500	$5.14	25d	1	0.84mi
4021 Ice Castle Way #4 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1246	$2,600	$2.09	15d	1	0.85mi
1106 Jardin Dr Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	1801	$8,500	$4.72	25d	1	0.85mi
4040 Ice Castle Way Unit 2 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1246	$2,800	$2.25	25d	1	0.87mi
1025 Jardin Dr Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	1756	$5,000	$2.85	15d	1	0.89mi
4069 Northlight Dr #1805 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1234	$3,000	$2.43	22d	1	0.89mi
4010 Ice Castle Way #7 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1314	$3,200	$2.44	25d	1	0.89mi
1526 Vintage Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1737	$10,000	$5.76	25d	1	0.91mi
1507 Vintage Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1874	$11,000	$5.87	25d	1	0.92mi
1499 Vintage Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1754	$9,000	$5.13	25d	1	0.93mi
1933 Courtyard Way Unit D-103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	947	$1,850	$1.95	15d	1	0.98mi
914 Marble Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1715	$15,000	$8.75	15d	1	0.98mi
1895 Courtyard Way #103 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1046	$2,200	$2.10	22d	1	0.99mi
929 Marble Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1803	$9,000	$4.99	22d	1	0.99mi
1701 Courtyard Way Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,990	$1.86	25d	1	0.99mi
930 Marble Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1850	$9,000	$4.86	22d	1	1.02mi
1765 Courtyard Way Unit C-104 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$2,700	$2.39	15d	1	1.05mi
1765 Courtyard Way Unit C206 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1150	$1,650	$1.43	15d	1	1.05mi
3504 Antarctic Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1246	$3,000	$2.41	25d	1	1.07mi
3510 Antarctic Cir Unit 1 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,350	$1.96	25d	1	1.08mi
3400 Frosty Way #5 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1284	$3,500	$2.73	15d	1	1.09mi
2026 Terrazzo Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1856	$9,000	$4.85	25d	1	1.09mi
5301 Whitten Dr #81 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1386	$2,700	$1.95	25d	1	1.10mi
3563 Antarctic Cir #2102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,800	$3.17	25d	1	1.11mi
1826 Kings Lake Blvd #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,700	$1.85	15d	1	1.11mi
3618 Arctic Cir #3618 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,450	$2.88	25d	1	1.12mi
83 Glades Blvd #3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1204	$5,200	$4.32	15d	1	1.13mi
319 Reynolds Ct Unit M12 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1596	$2,400	$1.50	22d	1	1.14mi
3608 Arctic Cir #514 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1250	$4,200	$3.36	25d	1	1.14mi
1808 Kings Lake Blvd #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1312	$1,775	$1.35	15d	1	1.14mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $563 · $6,756/yr
• Likely covers: watertrash
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $324,900 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $324,900 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $324,900 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $324,900 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $324,900 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $324,900 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $324,900 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $324,900 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $324,900 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $324,900 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $324,900 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $324,900 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $324,900 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $324,900 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $324,900 Active 114 DOM
16. 2026-03-31
    price $324,900
17. 2026-02-05
    listed $349,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,968
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,199
• − Property taxes: −$4,874
• − Insurance: −$6,743
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,317
• − Management: −$4,317
• − HOA: −$6,756
• − Depreciation: −$9,452
• Taxable loss: −$691
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$166
• After-tax cash flow: $3,982/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained and updated townhouse is in good condition with cosmetic renovations, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and add value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and add value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Naples

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #1903

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute D+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 344,941
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,408
• Household income: $71,686
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1423.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 19% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -252.48%
• Current HPI: 259.3498
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.10%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $324,900 MARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $349,900 MARMLS