40 Bellwood · Flint, MI 48473

$44,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,848 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 1993 Fair condition $745/mo HOA · 45% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home located in South Valley Estates in Swartz Creek. With 1,848 sq. ft. of living space, this home offers a bright open-concept floor plan perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The oversized primary suite features a massive private bathroom with abundant storage and a separate water closet for added privacy. Enjoy the flexibility of both a living room and a family room, complete with a cozy fireplace. The open kitchen flows seamlessly into the breakfast nook, while a separate dining room provides additional space for family meals and gatherings. Step outside to a large deck covered by an attached carport, creating the perfect space for outdoor relaxation while also providing covered parking. This well-maintained home combines comfort, space, and functionality in a desirable South Valley Estates location

Key facts

• Private bathroom
• Cozy fireplace
• Open kitchen

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY SUITE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• SEPARATE WATER CLOSET
• COZY FIREPLACE
• OPEN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $745

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Ground-level entry with steps
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Slab foundation; Built above-grade finished area of 1,848
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Patio/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric range; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Fireplace in the family room (gas); Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $45k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $241 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#196 in MI, #4,946 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Swartz Creek Community Schools (suburban): math 23% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #298 of 540 in MI (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 45% of rent.

Recommended offer $44,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.96%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $303,072
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7257 Miller Rd	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,768 (-4%)	9mo	$290,000	$164	57
6306 Willow Brook Trl	0.40mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,830 (-1%)	23mo	$309,900	$169	56
6927 Bay View Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,576 (-15%)	19mo	$284,980	$181	35
6933 Bay View Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,072 (+12%)	18mo	$300,000	$145	33
4046 S Elms Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,626 (-12%)	20mo	$229,900	$141	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $8,530
• Equity at exit: $6,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $29,120
• Equity at exit: $3,882

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48473

• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,640 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $674/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$745
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,336

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30 Bellwood Dr #30 Swartz Creek, MI	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,649	$1.23	43d	1	0.21mi
22 Bellwood Dr Unit 22 Swartz Creek, MI	4.0	2.0	1568	$1,529	$0.98	43d	1	0.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $745 · $8,940/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,900 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $44,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $44,900 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-09
   listed $44,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,684
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$674
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,575
• − Management: −$1,575
• − HOA: −$8,940
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $2,876
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$690
• After-tax cash flow: $2,197/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 50/100 Moderate rehab

The home is in fair condition with moderate repairs needed, primarily in the kitchen and bathrooms. Upgrades to the kitchen and bathrooms would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and worn
• Moderate kitchen countertops — dated and worn
• Minor bathroom fixtures — standard fixtures

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizes the kitchen and increases value
• Both replace bathroom fixtures — modernizes the bathrooms and increases value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen countertops · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · standard fixtures	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizes the kitchen and increases value ↑
• Both replace bathroom fixtures — modernizes the bathrooms and increases value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Swartz Creek Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2633420
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,586
• Composite: 29.37/100
• National rank: #6530
• State rank: #298 of 540 in MI

Livability — Flint

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #4946

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Genesee County · 221,329 people
• City population: 93,814
• Metro: Flint, MI
• Population (ZIP): 22,339
• Household income: $77,921
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 310.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.16%
• Current HPI: 208.5281
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Flint, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $44,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-08 Listed $44,900 REALCOMP