5317 E Gray Wolf Trl · Phoenix, AZ 85331

$899,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,242 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 2006 10,130 sqft lot $277/sqft · 9% below area Est $991k · 9% under $150/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful home in gated community of Gray Wolf. Luxury features throughout this spectacular home that backs to wash and common area on a cul-de-sac lot. High ceilings, lots of French doors leading to front courtyard w pavers, fireplace, bbq, another covered patio for outside entertaining and another to private pool w rock waterfall. Chef's kitchen w tons of storage, granite countertops, gas cooktop, double ovens, warming oven, wine frig. 12' ceilings t/o, wetbar open to large family rm for great entertaining. Split master suite w French doors to patio, luxurious bathroom w dual headed shower, jetted tub and very large walk-in closet. Den easily converted to 4th bedrm if desired. 3car gar w built in cabinets and workbench area for hobbies.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: City maintained road
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $450 quarterly fee; Association fee includes other items (see remarks); Community features include gated entry, nearby bus stop, and biking/walking path

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 3; 3-car garage with garage door opener, extended length and attached garage cabinets
• Security: Owned security system; Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer available
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction; Tile/concrete roof
• Exterior features: Private pool with variable speed pump and play pool features; Storage; Built-in barbecue; Block and wrought iron fencing; Desert front and back landscaping; Asphalt road access; Desert and mountain views

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Built-in gas oven; Built-in microwave; Walk-in pantry; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: Possible 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Central air; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Granite counters; Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; Vaulted ceilings; Wet bar; Kitchen island; Pantry; Full bath in master bedroom; Separate shower and tub; Tub with jets; Dual pane windows; Exterior gas fireplace and living room gas fireplace (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $899k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-446 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $820k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $640k (28.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $640k (28.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Black Mountain Elementary School (math 66% / reading 63%, grade B, #104 of 1,109 statewide, top 10%, 495 students, 8% FRL); Sonoran Trails Middle School (math 48% / reading 50%, grade C-, #31 of 218 statewide, top 14%, 761 students, 7% FRL); Cactus Shadows High School (math 49% / reading 46%, grade D, #48 of 381 statewide, top 13%, 1,588 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 7% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 396 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,404/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 169% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($872k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $560k; list at $899k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $640,384 (28.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.13%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $991,466
• List price: $899,000
• Delta: -9.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33610 N Rifleman Rd #1	0.45mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,050 (-6%)	9mo	$1,250,000	$410	54
5630 E Bramble Berry Ln	0.52mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,094 (-5%)	15mo	$915,000	$296	48
5842 E Night Glow Cir	0.75mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,451 (+6%)	1mo	$1,170,000	$339	47
32654 N 58th St	0.69mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,044 (-6%)	5mo	$1,050,000	$345	47
33945 N 57th Pl	0.62mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,451 (+6%)	9mo	$1,200,000	$348	46
5401 E Lonesome Trl	0.55mi	3/3.0	2,864 (-12%)	10mo	$982,500	$343	43
5118 E Sierra Sunset Trl	0.66mi	3/3.0	2,864 (-12%)	4mo	$1,080,000	$377	42
5077 E Lonesome Trl	0.63mi	3/3.0	2,864 (-12%)	9mo	$965,000	$337	39
4801 E Quien Sabe Way	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	3,021 (-7%)	9mo	$745,000	$247	39
5431 E Olesen Rd	0.54mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,810 (-13%)	8mo	$1,100,000	$391	38
5332 E Thunder Hawk Rd	0.66mi	3/3.0	2,864 (-12%)	10mo	$1,100,000	$384	37
5037 E Sleepy Ranch Rd	0.68mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,864 (-12%)	12mo	$850,000	$297	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-174,408
• Equity at exit: $134,044

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-189,806
• Equity at exit: $77,729

Cash invested: $251,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85331

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Active inventory: 396
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,404 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,714
• Tax from tax record: −$266 /mo · $3,189/yr
• Insurance: −$375
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,345
• Net cashflow: $-446

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,968

Max offer price $820,249

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $63	-5% $-191	+0% $-446	+5% $-700	+10% $-955
Rent	-10% $-952	-5% $-699	+0% $-446	+5% $-193	+10% $60
Rate	-1.0pp $7	-0.5pp $-217	base $-446	+0.5pp $-679	+1.0pp $-916

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $224,750
• Closing costs: $26,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5805 E Jake Hvn Cave Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	2182	$3,395	$1.56	26d	1	0.77mi
5936 E Night Glow Cir Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2601	$10,000	$3.84	45d	1	0.82mi
5940 E Bramble Berry Ln Cave Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	2168	$7,000	$3.23	45d	1	0.88mi
4711 E Sleepy Ranch Rd Cave Creek, AZ	4.0	3.0	2814	$3,950	$1.40	23d	1	0.96mi
4711 E Sleepy Ranch Rd Cave Creek, AZ	4.0	3.0	2814	$4,000	$1.42	12d	1	0.96mi
34151 N 60th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2504	$6,000	$2.40	26d	1	0.98mi
4613 E Thorn Tree Dr Cave Creek, AZ	3.0	3.0	2124	$2,750	$1.29	5d	1	1.00mi
5907 E Calle de las Estrellas Cave Creek, AZ	4.0	3.5	3468	$12,000	$3.46	45d	1	1.06mi
34327 N 61st Pl Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	4.5	3326	$9,000	$2.71	45d	1	1.14mi
6193 E Brilliant Sky Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2329	$6,000	$2.58	45d	1	1.15mi
5559 E El Sendero Dr Cave Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	2107	$3,750	$1.78	7d	1	1.17mi
6237 E Bramble Berry Ln Cave Creek, AZ	3.0	3.0	3036	$11,500	$3.79	45d	1	1.22mi
6280 E Amber Sun Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2774	$6,500	$2.34	26d	1	1.34mi
6332 E Dusty Coyote Cir Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.5	3791	$10,000	$2.64	26d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr
• Likely covers: watergaspoolsecurity

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $899,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $899,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $899,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $899,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $899,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $899,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $899,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $899,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $899,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $899,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $899,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $899,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $899,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $899,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $899,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $899,000 Active 1523-char remark
17. 2013-09-30
    soldstatus $560,000 Closed 748-char remark

    Show marketing remark (748 chars)

    Beautiful home in gated community of Gray Wolf. Luxury features throughout this spectacular home that backs to wash and common area on a cul-de-sac lot. High ceilings, lots of French doors leading to front courtyard w pavers, fireplace, bbq, another covered patio for outside entertaining and another to private pool w rock waterfall. Chef's kitchen w tons of storage, granite countertops, gas cooktop, double ovens, warming oven, wine frig. 12' ceilings t/o, wetbar open to large family rm for great entertaining. Split master suite w French doors to patio, luxurious bathroom w dual headed shower, jetted tub and very large walk-in closet. Den easily converted to 4th bedrm if desired. 3car gar w built in cabinets and workbench area for hobbies.

18. 2013-09-30
    soldstatus $560,000

    Show marketing remark (748 chars)

    Beautiful home in gated community of Gray Wolf. Luxury features throughout this spectacular home that backs to wash and common area on a cul-de-sac lot. High ceilings, lots of French doors leading to front courtyard w pavers, fireplace, bbq, another covered patio for outside entertaining and another to private pool w rock waterfall. Chef's kitchen w tons of storage, granite countertops, gas cooktop, double ovens, warming oven, wine frig. 12' ceilings t/o, wetbar open to large family rm for great entertaining. Split master suite w French doors to patio, luxurious bathroom w dual headed shower, jetted tub and very large walk-in closet. Den easily converted to 4th bedrm if desired. 3car gar w built in cabinets and workbench area for hobbies.

19. 2013-09-15
    status Pending 748-char remark

    Show marketing remark (748 chars)

    Beautiful home in gated community of Gray Wolf. Luxury features throughout this spectacular home that backs to wash and common area on a cul-de-sac lot. High ceilings, lots of French doors leading to front courtyard w pavers, fireplace, bbq, another covered patio for outside entertaining and another to private pool w rock waterfall. Chef's kitchen w tons of storage, granite countertops, gas cooktop, double ovens, warming oven, wine frig. 12' ceilings t/o, wetbar open to large family rm for great entertaining. Split master suite w French doors to patio, luxurious bathroom w dual headed shower, jetted tub and very large walk-in closet. Den easily converted to 4th bedrm if desired. 3car gar w built in cabinets and workbench area for hobbies.

20. 2013-08-21
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 748-char remark

    Show marketing remark (748 chars)

    Beautiful home in gated community of Gray Wolf. Luxury features throughout this spectacular home that backs to wash and common area on a cul-de-sac lot. High ceilings, lots of French doors leading to front courtyard w pavers, fireplace, bbq, another covered patio for outside entertaining and another to private pool w rock waterfall. Chef's kitchen w tons of storage, granite countertops, gas cooktop, double ovens, warming oven, wine frig. 12' ceilings t/o, wetbar open to large family rm for great entertaining. Split master suite w French doors to patio, luxurious bathroom w dual headed shower, jetted tub and very large walk-in closet. Den easily converted to 4th bedrm if desired. 3car gar w built in cabinets and workbench area for hobbies.

21. 2013-07-29
    listed $579,000 Active 748-char remark

    Show marketing remark (748 chars)

    Beautiful home in gated community of Gray Wolf. Luxury features throughout this spectacular home that backs to wash and common area on a cul-de-sac lot. High ceilings, lots of French doors leading to front courtyard w pavers, fireplace, bbq, another covered patio for outside entertaining and another to private pool w rock waterfall. Chef's kitchen w tons of storage, granite countertops, gas cooktop, double ovens, warming oven, wine frig. 12' ceilings t/o, wetbar open to large family rm for great entertaining. Split master suite w French doors to patio, luxurious bathroom w dual headed shower, jetted tub and very large walk-in closet. Den easily converted to 4th bedrm if desired. 3car gar w built in cabinets and workbench area for hobbies.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,189 · $266/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,933 · $494/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,744/yr (+$229/mo · 86.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $76,846
• − Mortgage interest: −$50,358
• − Property taxes: −$3,189
• − Insurance: −$4,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,148
• − Management: −$6,148
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$26,153
• Taxable loss: −$21,444
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,147
• After-tax cash flow: $-203/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,968
• Household income: $129,083
• Rent vs Own: 7.4% rent · 92.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 169.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 4% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.66%
• Current HPI: 316.6855
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+55.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $899,000 ARMLS
• 2013-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $560,000 Public Records
• 2013-09-30 Sold (MLS) $560,000 ARMLS
• 2013-09-15 Pending — ARMLS
• 2013-08-21 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2013-07-29 Listed $579,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,189 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.