6538 Monument Hl · Manvel, TX 77578

$322,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,135 sqft · SingleFamily · 86 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,300 sqft lot 2-car garage $111/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6,300 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

🏗️ New construction. The $322,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $389,871.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $322k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-962 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (22.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.5% in Manvel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#544 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Iowa Colony H S (792 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1437 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($303k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,850 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.23%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $389,871
• List price: $322,000
• Delta: -17.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6519 Monument Hl	0.05mi	4/2.0	2,167 (+2%)	0mo	$335,000	$155	95
6506 Monument Hill Ct	0.08mi	4/2.0	2,135 (0%)	2mo	$342,000	$160	94
6531 Monument Hl	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,962 (-8%)	0mo	$330,000	$168	84
6522 Monument Hl	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,938 (-9%)	1mo	$318,000	$164	82
8014 Big Bend Trl	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,962 (-8%)	0mo	$327,000	$167	81
6503 Monument Hill Ct	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,962 (-8%)	1mo	$333,000	$170	81
7315 Water Glen Ln	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,330 (+9%)	1mo	$375,000	$161	48
5703 Alleluia Trail Trl	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,057 (-4%)	9mo	$475,000	$231	47
18818 Lake Ridge Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,205 (+3%)	11mo	$379,000	$172	46
7107 Water Glen Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,205 (+3%)	16mo	$380,000	$172	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-124,820
• Equity at exit: $58,131

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.73×
• Total profit: $-189,172
• Equity at exit: $33,709

Cash invested: $109,164 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 20 active · 36 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.9 mo (26%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $354,950 ($167/sqft)
• Median days on market: 23 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +9.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77578

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 1437
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,488 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$487 /mo · $5,848/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$111
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $-962

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,706

Max offer price $250,713

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-692	-5% $-827	+0% $-962	+5% $-1,096	+10% $-1,231
Rent	-10% $-1,158	-5% $-1,060	+0% $-962	+5% $-863	+10% $-765
Rate	-1.0pp $-765	-0.5pp $-863	base $-962	+0.5pp $-1,063	+1.0pp $-1,165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,468
• Closing costs: $11,696
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: New construction by Imagination HomesMunicipal Utility District disclosure
• HOA & community: Member of Meridiana Community AssociationAnnual association feeCommunity pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (2026)Single-story (first floor living areas listed)Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick, cement siding, and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Fully fenced backyardBack yard fenceSubdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection ovenMicrowaveQuartz counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (21 x 12)Bedroom on the first floor (12 x 12)Bedroom on the first floor (12 x 11)Bedroom on the first floor (11 x 12)
• Flooring: CarpetPlankTileVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: Quartz countersConvection ovenMicrowave
• Laundry & utility: Utility room on the first floor (8 x 6)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $322,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $322,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $322,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $322,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $322,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $322,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $322,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $322,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $322,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $322,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $322,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $322,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $322,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $322,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $322,000 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $322,000 Active 64 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $322,000 Active 63 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $322,000 Active 62 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $322,000 Active 61 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $322,000 Active 60 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $322,000 Active 59 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $322,000 Active 58 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $322,000 Active 57 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $322,000 Active 56 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $322,000 Active 54 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $322,000 Active 53 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $322,000 Active 52 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $322,000 Active 51 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $322,000 Active 50 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $322,000 Active 49 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $322,000 Active 48 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $322,000 Active 47 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    price $322,000 Active 46 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $330,000 Active 46 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $330,000 Active 45 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $330,000 Active 44 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $330,000 Active 43 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $330,000 Active 41 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $330,000 Active 39 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $330,000 Active 38 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $330,000 Active 35 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $330,000 Active 34 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $330,000 Active 33 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $330,000 Active 32 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $330,000 Active 30 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $330,000 Active 29 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $330,000 Active 26 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $330,000 Active 25 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $330,000 Active 24 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $330,000 Active 21 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AO · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,862
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,839
• − Property taxes: −$5,848
• − Insurance: −$3,417
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,389
• − Management: −$2,389
• − HOA: −$1,332
• − Depreciation: −$11,342
• Taxable loss: −$18,693
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,486
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,054/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and high-end features. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value enhancement through curb appeal and smart home upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding and trim in a more vibrant color to enhance curb appeal. — A fresh coat of paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features such as a security system and smart lighting. — These features can increase the home's value and attract tech-savvy buyers or renters. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bedrooms to a more durable material. — Bedroom flooring is a key selling point and upgrading it can enhance the home's overall appeal and value. ↑
• Rental Installing a smart thermostat and LED lighting package throughout the home. — These energy-efficient upgrades can reduce utility costs and attract renters who prioritize energy efficiency and cost savings. ↑

Zoned Schools

High Iowa Colony H S

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Manvel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #544
• US rank: #10576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manvel, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 30,210
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,210
• Household income: $134,016
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Norwegian 2% Subsaharan African 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.15%
• Current HPI: 218.4264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: New construction by Imagination HomesMunicipal Utility District disclosure
• HOA & community: Member of Meridiana Community AssociationAnnual association feeCommunity pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (2026)Single-story (first floor living areas listed)Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick, cement siding, and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Fully fenced backyardBack yard fenceSubdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection ovenMicrowaveQuartz counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (21 x 12)Bedroom on the first floor (12 x 12)Bedroom on the first floor (12 x 11)Bedroom on the first floor (11 x 12)
• Flooring: CarpetPlankTileVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: Quartz countersConvection ovenMicrowave
• Laundry & utility: Utility room on the first floor (8 x 6)

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Coming Soon $330,000 HARMLS