8408 Richard Way · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$200,000

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1981 7,840 sqft lot $238/sqft · 38% below area Est $323k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

The Subject is located in a quiet cul-de-sac with a view of Birch Bay and sunny exposure, with public water and sewer. There is also a detached garage/shed with a garage door. There are Lots of options to rebuild or install a new home.

Key facts

• Public sewer
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• View of birch bay

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• VIEW OF BIRCH BAY
• SUNNY EXPOSURE
• PUBLIC WATER
• PUBLIC SEWER
• DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($134/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.6% in Birch Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 454 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $200k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $176,366 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.24%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,385
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -38.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5594 Hillvue Rd	0.22mi	2/2.0 (+1)	816 (-3%)	8mo	$312,000	$382	71
5545 Seavue Rd	0.14mi	2/1.0 (+1)	720 (-14%)	24mo	$219,000	$304	43
8246 Salish Ln	0.74mi	2/1.0 (+1)	784 (-7%)	12mo	$275,000	$351	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $109,839
• Equity at exit: $180,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.77×
• Total profit: $323,314
• Equity at exit: $388,556

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 454
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,764 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $200,000 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $200,000 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-04-15
    price $200,000
17. 2026-03-18
    listed $239,000 Active
18. 2000-09-29
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥79°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,164
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,693
• − Management: −$1,693
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,244
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$778
• After-tax cash flow: $912/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Bay, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+300.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $200,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Listed $239,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $185 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.