9318 CR 649 · Nobleton, FL 33513

$299,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 2019 376 sqft lot Est $289k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 2019 2-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on approximately one-third of an acre, offering a peaceful country feel while still being conveniently located. The primary bedroom features a private sitting area or office space—perfect for working from home or relaxing. Enjoy the open-concept layout with a spacious living room, kitchen, and dining area that flow seamlessly together—ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with modern conveniences, including a WiFi-enabled refrigerator and microwave. Step outside and take in the quiet, serene surroundings, giving you that true country atmosphere. Bring your boat—you’re just a short drive from

Key facts

• Private sitting area
• Quick access to i-75
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• PRIVATE SITTING AREA
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WIFI-ENABLED REFRIGERATOR
• QUICK ACCESS TO I-75

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Approximately 0.37-acre lot (quarter to less than half acre); Oak trees on property; One well and one septic system; Living area about 1,260 square feet

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; West-facing
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Storage; Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet; Washer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-450 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (26.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (43.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (43.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#880 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,892 (43.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.45%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $288,540
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6949 CR 651	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+14%)	1mo	$245,000	$170	54
9114 CR 647a	0.67mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,420 (+13%)	14mo	$325,000	$229	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $134,033
• Equity at exit: $269,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.98×
• Total profit: $416,951
• Equity at exit: $580,891

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33513

• Home prices YoY: 12.8%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 14.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,689 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,100/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-450

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,259

Max offer price $219,501

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-281	-5% $-365	+0% $-450	+5% $-535	+10% $-619
Rent	-10% $-583	-5% $-517	+0% $-450	+5% $-383	+10% $-317
Rate	-1.0pp $-299	-0.5pp $-374	base $-450	+0.5pp $-528	+1.0pp $-606

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $299,000 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-03-27
    listed $320,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,100 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,482 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,381/yr (+$115/mo · 125.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,267
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$1,100
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,621
• − Management: −$1,621
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$11,018
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,644
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,756/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Nobleton

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #880
• US rank: #23567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,647

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 40.29%
• Current HPI: 354.5531
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $320,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+46.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,100 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.