309 E Carnes St · Wheaton, MO 64874

$79,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,071 sqft · SingleFamily · 100 Days on market

Built 1915 Est $140k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

4BD 1BA Home is small town of Wheaton. Home has had lots of updates through the years including newer floor covering in kitchen, newer paint, newer mini split unit. Home has a breezeway to the 1 car attached garage. There is a covered front porch overlooking the huge yard. This is a must see for the money. The 2 upstairs bedrooms are open and divided by stairs with no closets.

Key facts

• Breezeway to garage
• Covered front porch
• Huge yard

Tags

• BREEZEWAY TO GARAGE
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• HUGE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $233 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($994 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#296 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Wheaton R-III (rural): math 26% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #271 of 324 in MO (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wheaton Elem. (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 250 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 57 units permitted in Barry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Barry County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $72,709 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.50%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $140,301
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
520 E Main St	0.18mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,224 (+14%)	10mo	$159,900	$131	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $24,479
• Equity at exit: $35,926

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.97×
• Total profit: $66,380
• Equity at exit: $55,367

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64874

• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $994 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (379 chars)

   4BD 1BA Home is small town of Wheaton. Home has had lots of updates through the years including newer floor covering in kitchen, newer paint, newer mini split unit. Home has a breezeway to the 1 car attached garage. There is a covered front porch overlooking the huge yard. This is a must see for the money. The 2 upstairs bedrooms are open and divided by stairs with no closets.

2. 2026-04-15
   status Pending 379-char remark

   Show marketing remark (379 chars)

   4BD 1BA Home is small town of Wheaton. Home has had lots of updates through the years including newer floor covering in kitchen, newer paint, newer mini split unit. Home has a breezeway to the 1 car attached garage. There is a covered front porch overlooking the huge yard. This is a must see for the money. The 2 upstairs bedrooms are open and divided by stairs with no closets.

3. 2026-01-04
   listed $79,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (379 chars)

   4BD 1BA Home is small town of Wheaton. Home has had lots of updates through the years including newer floor covering in kitchen, newer paint, newer mini split unit. Home has a breezeway to the 1 car attached garage. There is a covered front porch overlooking the huge yard. This is a must see for the money. The 2 upstairs bedrooms are open and divided by stairs with no closets.

4. 2026-01-04
   listed $79,900 Active 379-char remark

   Show marketing remark (379 chars)

   4BD 1BA Home is small town of Wheaton. Home has had lots of updates through the years including newer floor covering in kitchen, newer paint, newer mini split unit. Home has a breezeway to the 1 car attached garage. There is a covered front porch overlooking the huge yard. This is a must see for the money. The 2 upstairs bedrooms are open and divided by stairs with no closets.

5. 2025-11-02
   price $99,900
6. 2025-11-02
   price $99,900
7. 2025-08-29
   price $105,900
8. 2025-08-29
   price $105,900
9. 2025-06-26
   listed $119,900 Active
10. 2018-02-22
    listed $19,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,926
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$954
• − Management: −$954
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $1,620
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$389
• After-tax cash flow: $2,407/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wheaton R-III
• NCES district ID: 2931950
• Math proficiency: 26% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,531
• Composite: 25.42/100
• National rank: #7456
• State rank: #271 of 324 in MO

Livability — Wheaton

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #296
• US rank: #13636

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wheaton, MO
• Population (ZIP): 461

Population outlook (Barry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,207 people
• By 2030: 34,460 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 32,643 · -7.3%
• By 2050: 30,688 · -12.8%
• By 2075: 26,898 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 22,000 · -37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Barry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 17.8% · R 81.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -35.0pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.8 2016: R+59.7 2012: R+44.7 2008: R+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+301.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — OGAR
• 2026-04-15 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-01-04 Listed $79,900 SOMO
• 2026-01-04 Listed $79,900 OGAR
• 2025-11-02 Price Changed $99,900 OGAR
• 2025-11-02 Price Changed $99,900 SOMO
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $105,900 OGAR
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $105,900 SOMO
• 2025-06-26 Listed $119,900 SOMO
• 2018-02-22 Listed $19,900 SOMO