44655 E 4th St · Lancaster, CA 93535

$365,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 123 Days on market

Built 2025 6,534 sqft lot Est $358k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BRAND NEW CONSTRUCTION BUILT 2024. This Home was just Completely Rebuilt.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2025

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA (see remarks)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected (sewer available); Natural gas available; Cable TV available
• Home design: Contemporary ranch style; Single-story
• Construction: Stucco and wood construction; Composition shingle roof; Concrete slab foundation; Built on Tract #15; Rectangular lot shape; Paved public streets
• Exterior features: Back and block fencing; RV access possible; No solar

Interior

• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas and electric); Central air
• Interior features: Dining area; Hardscape
• Laundry & utility: Laundry hookups in kitchen with electric and gas connections

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($143/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#282 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Lancaster Elementary (suburban): math 18% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #1,161 of 1,400 in CA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: El Dorado Elementary (755 students, 96% FRL); New Vista Middle (883 students, 94% FRL); Antelope Valley High (1,558 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 72% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1178 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,884/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 2494% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $48k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $365k implies a 479% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $288,361 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.14%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $357,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
44627 Rodin	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,107 (+1%)	3mo	$300,000	$271	76
44551 Stanridge Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,184 (+8%)	5mo	$385,000	$325	68
44265 Foxton Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,088 (-1%)	1mo	$261,800	$241	64
646 E Nugent	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,227 (+12%)	0mo	$340,000	$277	62
44727 Andale	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,227 (+12%)	2mo	$399,000	$325	61
44415 Watford Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,224 (+11%)	0mo	$410,000	$335	56
45001 Logue Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,023 (-7%)	4mo	$425,000	$415	53
44221 4th St E	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,170 (+6%)	4mo	$440,000	$376	53
44325 3rd St E	0.53mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,184 (+8%)	1mo	$375,000	$317	53
44432 Stanridge	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (+14%)	4mo	$275,000	$218	52
44329 3rd E	0.52mi	3/1.0 (-1)	950 (-14%)	1mo	$342,000	$360	44
44238 3rd St E	0.58mi	3/1.0 (-1)	943 (-14%)	6mo	$287,000	$304	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-66,567
• Equity at exit: $54,423

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-88,714
• Equity at exit: $31,559

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93535

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 1178
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,884 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,399/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$606
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,869

Max offer price $365,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $219	-5% $115	+0% $12	+5% $-91	+10% $-195
Rent	-10% $-216	-5% $-102	+0% $12	+5% $126	+10% $240
Rate	-1.0pp $196	-0.5pp $105	base $12	+0.5pp $-83	+1.0pp $-179

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
44538 2nd St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,380	$1.89	0d	1	0.23mi
44514 Stanridge Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,646	$2.10	0d	1	0.24mi
44946 3rd St E Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1256	$2,395	$1.91	17d	1	0.34mi
44961 5th St E Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1248	$2,500	$2.00	0d	1	0.40mi
44283 Raysack Ave Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1282	$2,400	$1.87	12d	1	0.50mi
44258 4th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1170	$2,495	$2.13	0d	1	0.53mi
45027 Division St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1221	$2,600	$2.13	0d	1	0.54mi
44908 Logue Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1473	$2,495	$1.69	3d	1	0.56mi
201 W Kettering St Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1120	$2,900	$2.59	0d	1	0.56mi
44221 Foxton Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	1.5	1096	$3,590	$3.28	4d	1	0.59mi
44221 4th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1170	$2,400	$2.05	0d	1	0.59mi
44221 4th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1170	$2,400	$2.05	4d	1	0.59mi
44221 4th St E Lancaster, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	885	$2,400	$2.71	3d	2	0.59mi
817 E Kildare St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1179	$2,800	$2.37	0d	1	0.69mi
44119 Kirkland Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1341	$2,750	$2.05	14d	1	0.71mi
837 Sunrise Ct Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1259	$3,000	$2.38	23d	1	0.74mi
837 Sunrise Ct Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1259	$2,895	$2.30	5d	1	0.74mi
1004 E Newgrove St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1160	$2,800	$2.41	0d	1	0.75mi
44021 3rd St E Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1465	$2,900	$1.98	21d	1	0.81mi
44021 3rd St E Unit 44021 Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1465	$3,500	$2.39	0d	1	0.81mi
429 E Avenue J7 Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1157	$2,300	$1.99	0d	1	0.86mi
44646 Elm Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,700	$2.25	4d	1	0.91mi
45402 5th St E Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1237	$2,775	$2.24	0d	1	0.91mi
45428 Raysack Ave Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1244	$2,900	$2.33	0d	1	0.92mi
45426 Stanridge Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1443	$2,975	$2.06	17d	1	0.92mi
44732 12th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,600	$1.82	17d	1	0.97mi
43615 Stanridge Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1113	$2,646	$2.38	0d	1	1.32mi
43611 Stanridge Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1113	$2,600	$2.34	0d	1	1.32mi
45041 Colleen Dr Lancaster, CA	3.0	3.0	1303	$3,100	$2.38	0d	1	1.40mi
730 W Avenue H12 Lancaster, CA	3.0	1.0	972	$2,375	$2.44	0d	1	1.42mi
45329 Gadsden Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	1.0	1005	$2,300	$2.29	4d	1	1.46mi
45354 Gadsden Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	1.0	1388	$2,943	$2.12	0d	1	1.46mi
1647 Orchid Ln Lancaster, CA	3.0	3.0	1084	$1,950	$1.80	23d	1	1.46mi
44928 Kingtree Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,350	$1.75	0d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $365,000 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $365,000 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $365,000 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $365,000 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $365,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $365,000 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $365,000 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $365,000 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $365,000 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $365,000 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $365,000 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $365,000 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $365,000 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $365,000 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $365,000 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    price $365,000
17. 2026-02-16
    listed $412,500 Active
18. 2015-03-28
    historical
19. 2015-03-28
    historical
20. 2015-03-17
    historical
21. 2012-10-11
    soldstatus $63,000
22. 2010-04-30
    soldstatus $64,750
23. 2010-04-02
    listed $54,900
24. 2007-08-27
    historical
25. 2007-08-27
    historical
26. 2007-08-25
    historical
27. 2007-08-15
    listed $229,900
28. 2007-07-03
    listed $229,900
29. 2007-06-23
    listed $229,900
30. 2007-06-10
    listed $229,900
31. 2007-06-10
    historical
32. 2007-05-30
    listed $229,900
33. 2007-05-30
    historical
34. 2007-05-19
    listed $229,900
35. 2007-05-02
    listed $229,900
36. 2007-02-17
    historical
37. 2006-06-11
    listed $246,900
38. 2006-06-11
    listed $246,900
39. 2002-05-29
    soldstatus $97,000
40. 2002-04-03
    listed $97,000
41. 2002-01-09
    soldstatus $58,000
42. 2002-01-09
    soldstatus $58,000
43. 2001-12-01
    listed $59,900
44. 1978-07-03
    soldstatus $32,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,399 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,774 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: +$375/yr (+$31/mo · 15.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,603
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$2,399
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,768
• − Management: −$2,768
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$6,221
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,493
• After-tax cash flow: $1,636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0620880
• Math proficiency: 18% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,440
• Composite: 24.73/100
• National rank: #13028
• State rank: #1161 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #9504

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 194,251
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 79,409
• Household income: $70,360
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2494.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Two or more races 25% Black 21% White 17% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.13%
• Current HPI: 449.4494
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1023.1% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $365,000 AVMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $412,500 AVMLS
• 2015-03-28 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-28 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-17 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2012-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 2010-04-30 Sold (MLS) $64,750 AVMLS
• 2010-04-02 Listed $54,900 AVMLS
• 2007-08-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2007-08-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2007-08-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-08-15 Listed $229,900 AVMLS
• 2007-07-03 Listed $229,900 AVMLS
• 2007-06-23 Listed $229,900 AVMLS
• 2007-06-10 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2007-06-10 Listed $229,900 AVMLS
• 2007-05-30 Listed $229,900 CRMLS
• 2007-05-30 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2007-05-19 Listed $229,900 AVMLS
• 2007-05-02 Listed $229,900 AVMLS
• 2007-02-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2006-06-11 Listed $246,900 CRMLS
• 2006-06-11 Listed $246,900 AVMLS
• 2002-05-29 Sold (MLS) $97,000 AVMLS
• 2002-04-03 Listed $97,000 AVMLS
• 2002-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2002-01-09 Sold (MLS) $58,000 AVMLS
• 2001-12-01 Listed $59,900 AVMLS
• 1978-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $32,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,399 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.