3201 3rd Ave · St. Paul, VA 24283

$81,000

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,182 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 261 Days on market

Built 1947 0.30 ac lot ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer-Upper with Terrific Bones - 6 Bedrooms in the Heart of Saint Paul! Bring your vision and unlock the potential in this spacious 6-bedroom home located right in the heart of Saint Paul. With terrific bones, sweeping mountain views, and direct access to the Spearhead ATV trails, this property is a rare find for investors, flippers, or anyone looking for a project. The home is being sold AS IS. Previous renters left personal belongings inside, giving buyers the chance to start fresh and reimagine the space. Priced to sell, this is your opportunity to own a large home in a prime location with endless possibilities.

Key facts

• Heart of saint paul
• 0.3 acre lot
• Listed 261 days

Tags

• SWEEPING MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• HEART OF SAINT PAUL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $81k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $562 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $81k).
• Recommended offer: $71k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wise County Public School District (town): math 74% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #11 of 131 in VA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.3%/yr); year-one equity from $560 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 261 days — a 12% lower offer ($71k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $71,280 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 261 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.74%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $25,203
• Equity at exit: $14,783

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.10×
• Total profit: $70,211
• Equity at exit: $11,741

Cash invested: $22,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24283

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,339 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$425
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $445/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $562

Break-even live

Break-even rent $627

Max offer price $81,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $608	-5% $585	+0% $562	+5% $539	+10% $516
Rent	-10% $456	-5% $509	+0% $562	+5% $615	+10% $668
Rate	-1.0pp $603	-0.5pp $583	base $562	+0.5pp $541	+1.0pp $520

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,250
• Closing costs: $2,430
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $81,000 Active 261 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $81,000 Active 259 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $81,000 Active 258 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $81,000 Active 257 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $81,000 Active 256 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $81,000 Active 255 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $81,000 Active 254 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $81,000 Active 253 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $81,000 Active 250 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $81,000 Active 249 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $81,000 Active 248 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $81,000 Active 247 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $81,000 Active 244 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $81,000 Active 243 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $81,000 Active 242 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $81,000 Active 241 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    price $81,000 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    Fixer-Upper with Terrific Bones - 6 Bedrooms in the Heart of Saint Paul! Bring your vision and unlock the potential in this spacious 6-bedroom home located right in the heart of Saint Paul. With terrific bones, sweeping mountain views, and direct access to the Spearhead ATV trails, this property is a rare find for investors, flippers, or anyone looking for a project. The home is being sold AS IS. Previous renters left personal belongings inside, giving buyers the chance to start fresh and reimagine the space. Priced to sell, this is your opportunity to own a large home in a prime location with endless possibilities.

18. 2026-02-27
    price $82,000 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    Fixer-Upper with Terrific Bones - 6 Bedrooms in the Heart of Saint Paul! Bring your vision and unlock the potential in this spacious 6-bedroom home located right in the heart of Saint Paul. With terrific bones, sweeping mountain views, and direct access to the Spearhead ATV trails, this property is a rare find for investors, flippers, or anyone looking for a project. The home is being sold AS IS. Previous renters left personal belongings inside, giving buyers the chance to start fresh and reimagine the space. Priced to sell, this is your opportunity to own a large home in a prime location with endless possibilities.

19. 2025-11-28
    price $83,000 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    Fixer-Upper with Terrific Bones - 6 Bedrooms in the Heart of Saint Paul! Bring your vision and unlock the potential in this spacious 6-bedroom home located right in the heart of Saint Paul. With terrific bones, sweeping mountain views, and direct access to the Spearhead ATV trails, this property is a rare find for investors, flippers, or anyone looking for a project. The home is being sold AS IS. Previous renters left personal belongings inside, giving buyers the chance to start fresh and reimagine the space. Priced to sell, this is your opportunity to own a large home in a prime location with endless possibilities.

20. 2025-11-10
    price $85,000 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    Fixer-Upper with Terrific Bones - 6 Bedrooms in the Heart of Saint Paul! Bring your vision and unlock the potential in this spacious 6-bedroom home located right in the heart of Saint Paul. With terrific bones, sweeping mountain views, and direct access to the Spearhead ATV trails, this property is a rare find for investors, flippers, or anyone looking for a project. The home is being sold AS IS. Previous renters left personal belongings inside, giving buyers the chance to start fresh and reimagine the space. Priced to sell, this is your opportunity to own a large home in a prime location with endless possibilities.

21. 2025-10-02
    listed $90,000 Active 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    Fixer-Upper with Terrific Bones - 6 Bedrooms in the Heart of Saint Paul! Bring your vision and unlock the potential in this spacious 6-bedroom home located right in the heart of Saint Paul. With terrific bones, sweeping mountain views, and direct access to the Spearhead ATV trails, this property is a rare find for investors, flippers, or anyone looking for a project. The home is being sold AS IS. Previous renters left personal belongings inside, giving buyers the chance to start fresh and reimagine the space. Priced to sell, this is your opportunity to own a large home in a prime location with endless possibilities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $445 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $664 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$219/yr (+$18/mo · 49.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥98°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,537
• − Property taxes: −$445
• − Insurance: −$405
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,285
• − Management: −$1,285
• − Depreciation: −$2,356
• Taxable income: $5,753
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,381
• After-tax cash flow: $5,365/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wise County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104080
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $35,624
• Composite: 63.37/100
• National rank: #625
• State rank: #11 of 131 in VA

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, VA
• Population (ZIP): 1,873

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,714 people
• By 2030: 33,742 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 29,870 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 26,233 · -26.5%
• By 2075: 18,296 · -48.8%
• By 2100: 12,147 · -66.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Serbian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.3) · D 18.1% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.7pp · 2024: -63.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.3 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.0 2012: R+48.8 2008: R+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.26%
• Current HPI: 120.7777
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $81,000 TVRMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $82,000 TVRMLS
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $83,000 TVRMLS
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $85,000 TVRMLS
• 2025-10-02 Listed $90,000 TVRMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $445 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.