27 Saddlebag Trl S · Lake Wales, FL 33898

$99,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · Manufactured public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1989 4,883 sqft lot $244/mo HOA · 22% of rent ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This spacious home in the premier 55+ gated community of Saddlebag Lake Resort, where you own the land, is just waiting for its new owner! Situated on a shaded corner lot, there is plenty of parking with a driveway at both the front and the rear of the home. Upon entering the front door, you'll find a large family room that's perfect for entertaining company, with a table for playing cards and comfortable seating for enjoying conversation. The huge living room is outfitted with an office nook and daybed, in addition to the new La-Z-Boy recliner. You'll love the kitchen, with it's double sinks, ample counter space and cabinets, and even a window seat. The bedroom comes complete with two elec

Key facts

• 4,883 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 1989

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Total annual fees ~$2,936
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly equivalent ~$244.67; quarterly association fee $734); Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, sauna, tennis courts, pickleball courts, shuffleboard, recreation facilities, security; Association fees include water, sewer, trash; Community features: dog park; golf carts allowed; senior community; pets (cats and dogs) allowed; Association approval not required

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt road access
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Two levels; East-facing; Residential, PUD
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace and slab foundation; Built on a 0.11-acre lot
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Shed(s); Private water access to lagoon/lake (Saddlebag Lake)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Dryer
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Electric fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-300/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $95k (4.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $90k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#535 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 500 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.08%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-17,478
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-16,634
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33898

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Active inventory: 500
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,123 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,290/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$244
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,154

Max offer price $94,582

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $31	-5% $3	+0% $-25	+5% $-53	+10% $-81
Rent	-10% $-114	-5% $-69	+0% $-25	+5% $19	+10% $64
Rate	-1.0pp $25	-0.5pp $0	base $-25	+0.5pp $-51	+1.0pp $-77

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $244 · $2,928/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-03-13
    listed $99,000 Active
16. 2026-02-09
    historical
17. 2026-02-02
    status Active
18. 2026-02-01
    historical
19. 2025-10-20
    price $109,900
20. 2025-07-31
    price $119,900
21. 2025-02-01
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,290 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,290 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,472
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,290
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,078
• − Management: −$1,078
• − HOA: −$2,928
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable loss: −$1,822
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$437
• After-tax cash flow: $137/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Wales

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10036

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 30,351
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,527
• Household income: $57,224
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 148.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.62%
• Current HPI: 340.6056
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-20.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $109,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-01 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,290 · +16.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.