11540 SE 309th St · Auburn, WA 98092

$149,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,770 sqft · Manufactured · 14 Days on market

Built 1995 Fair condition Est $193k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming manufactured three-bedroom, two-bath home located in a desirable, well-kept neighborhood. This property offers a comfortable and functional layout with a spacious living area, bright natural light, and a thoughtfully designed floor plan perfect for everyday living. The kitchen features an island, an overhead cookware rack, ample cabinet space and flows nicely into the dining area, making it ideal for entertaining or meals, and a dedicated office space. The primary bedroom includes a private bath with oversized tub, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, or hobbies. Enjoy the peaceful surroundings with nearby parks, golf course, and conven

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• Private bath
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• BRIGHT NATURAL LIGHT
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• DEDICATED OFFICE SPACE
• PRIVATE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $976 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 2.7% in Auburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#75 in WA, #1,371 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Auburn School District (urban): math 47% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #125 of 291 in WA (top 43%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hazelwood Elementary School (516 students, 52% FRL); Auburn Senior High School (1,844 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 44% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 291 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,555 units permitted in King County in 2024 (7,119 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• King County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $149,950

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.89%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $192,930
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11540 SE 309th St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,770 (0%)	0mo	$150,000	$85	100
31101 116th Ave SE #30	0.14mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,750 (-1%)	11mo	$220,000	$126	74
31101 116th Ave SE #81	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,960 (+11%)	5mo	$160,000	$82	71
31210 112th Ave SE	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,848 (+4%)	10mo	$547,000	$296	65
31101 116th Ave SE #93	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,548 (-12%)	8mo	$169,000	$109	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.25×
• Total profit: $136,398
• Equity at exit: $135,087

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.09×
• Total profit: $339,501
• Equity at exit: $291,320

Cash invested: $41,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98092

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 291
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,547 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,249/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $976

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $149,950

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,080	-5% $1,028	+0% $976	+5% $924	+10% $872
Rent	-10% $775	-5% $875	+0% $976	+5% $1,077	+10% $1,177
Rate	-1.0pp $1,051	-0.5pp $1,014	base $976	+0.5pp $937	+1.0pp $898

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,488
• Closing costs: $4,498
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30236 125th Ct SE Auburn, WA	4.0	2.5	2297	$3,595	$1.57	25d	1	0.65mi
12722 SE 312th St Auburn, WA	4.0	1.0–2.0	870	$2,166	$2.49	0d	21	0.76mi
12902 SE 312th St Auburn, WA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$2,301	$2.17	0d	16	0.95mi
31900 104th Ave SE Unit A206 Auburn, WA	2.0	1.5	1250	$2,000	$1.60	25d	1	0.99mi
2414 N St NE Unit C Auburn, WA	3.0	1.0	1271	$1,950	$1.53	25d	1	1.18mi
2025 M St NE Unit 2045 Auburn, WA	2.0	1.5	1248	$2,095	$1.68	22d	1	1.29mi
1433 8th St NE Auburn, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1025	$2,799	$2.73	0d	13	1.36mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-11
   price $149,950
3. 2026-04-10
   listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,565
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,400
• − Property taxes: −$2,249
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,445
• − Management: −$2,445
• − Depreciation: −$4,362
• Taxable income: $9,914
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,379
• After-tax cash flow: $9,332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Key areas for improvement include the kitchen, bathrooms, exterior, and flooring.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Major bathroom fixtures — outdated and damaged
• Minor exterior siding — some peeling
• Major flooring — carpeted and worn

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes the space and increases functionality
• Both replace bathroom fixtures — updates the space and improves functionality
• Both replace flooring — enhances the overall look and feel of the home

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · outdated and damaged	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · some peeling	Minor	$500–3,000
flooring · carpeted and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$31,000–106,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes the space and increases functionality ↑
• Both replace bathroom fixtures — updates the space and improves functionality ↑
• Both replace flooring — enhances the overall look and feel of the home ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Auburn School District
• NCES district ID: 5300300
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,048
• Composite: 46.73/100
• National rank: #5240
• State rank: #125 of 291 in WA

Livability — Auburn

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #75
• US rank: #1371

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Auburn, WA
• County: King County · 2,251,916 people
• City population: 74,969
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 50,224
• Household income: $122,300
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1041.0

Population outlook (King County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,576,485 people
• By 2030: 2,803,316 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 3,255,921 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 3,706,444 · +43.9%
• By 2075: 4,746,063 · +84.2%
• By 2100: 5,407,730 · +109.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 15% Asian 14% Two or more races 13% Native American 4% Black 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 3% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · King

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.7) · D 74.2% · R 22.5% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 51.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.7 2020: D+52.7 2016: D+50.4 2012: D+39.9 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.75%
• Current HPI: 1554.06
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.46%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $149,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Listed $150,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid