47 Suffolk Rd · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$885,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,413 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2002 0.29 ac lot Est $804k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• ARV discount +3.0/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Just listed home south of the highway in Hampton Bays. The property is centrally located near the village, local schools, the library and is just a short distance from the beaches. The home features three bedrooms, two full bathrooms, a large living room, a formal dining area, and kitchen. The basement is partially finished. Also includes a good-sized deck. This home is being sold furnished, excludes certain items (list to be given at showing). Items not wanted will be removed by seller. No certificate of occupancy for partially finished basement.

Key facts

• Good sized deck
• Centrally located
• 0.29 acre lot

Tags

• CENTRALLY LOCATED
• SHORT DISTANCE FROM BEACHES
• GOOD SIZED DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Garage available
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Phone connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Shingle siding construction
• Exterior features: Shingle siding; Not waterfront; No additional parcels

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Formal dining room; Partially finished basement; Crawl attic; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $885k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $885k).
• Recommended offer: $872k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $9,468/mo this rent would consume 85% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $248k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($872k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $885k implies a 422% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $871,725 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.23%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $803,997
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Nassau Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+8%)	14mo	$790,000	$518	66
52 Springville Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,322 (-6%)	21mo	$720,000	$545	63
3 Vine St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+6%)	1mo	$785,000	$523	63
35A Neptune Ave	0.36mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,388 (-2%)	12mo	$935,000	$674	61
53 Shore Rd	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,390 (-2%)	10mo	$774,000	$557	61
4 Poplar St	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,332 (-6%)	22mo	$735,000	$552	58
129 Springville Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,520 (+8%)	15mo	$780,000	$513	53
9 Squiretown Rd	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,266 (-10%)	7mo	$910,000	$719	50
58 Ocean Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+13%)	4mo	$910,000	$569	50
17 Washington Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+6%)	14mo	$1,800,000	$1,200	44
4A Last	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,623 (+15%)	8mo	$2,400,000	$1,479	38
2 Marinea Pl	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-11%)	14mo	$1,090,000	$865	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $40,857
• Equity at exit: $131,956

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $435,273
• Equity at exit: $76,519

Cash invested: $247,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,468 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,641
• Tax from tax record: −$357 /mo · $4,289/yr
• Insurance: −$369
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,988
• Net cashflow: $2,113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,794

Max offer price $885,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,613	-5% $2,363	+0% $2,113	+5% $1,862	+10% $1,612
Rent	-10% $1,365	-5% $1,739	+0% $2,113	+5% $2,486	+10% $2,860
Rate	-1.0pp $2,558	-0.5pp $2,338	base $2,113	+0.5pp $1,883	+1.0pp $1,650

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $221,250
• Closing costs: $26,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
51 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$5,000	$4.17	45d	1	0.46mi
58 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$10,000	$6.25	45d	1	0.53mi
71 Hampton Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	1500	$18,000	$12.00	26d	1	0.54mi
18 Maryland Blvd Unit 1429741P Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1732	$7,475	$4.32	1d	1	0.58mi
28 Bay Ave W Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	945	$66,000	$69.84	45d	1	0.62mi
35 Grant Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1484	$35,000	$23.58	26d	1	0.67mi
5 Ardmore Ct Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1800	$28,000	$15.56	20d	1	0.81mi
47 School St Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1700	$25,000	$14.71	45d	1	0.85mi
121 Ponquogue Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1316	$27,000	$20.52	26d	1	0.88mi
37 Maryland Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1640	$20,000	$12.20	45d	1	0.89mi
6 Long Ln Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1163	$40,000	$34.39	26d	1	0.99mi
40 Kyle Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1320	$5,000	$3.79	45d	1	1.01mi
18 Old Riverhead Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1056	$13,500	$12.78	26d	1	1.04mi
73 W Tiana Rd Unit 11 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$11,000	$11.00	45d	1	1.07mi
229 Springville Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$6,000	$5.00	20d	1	1.07mi
94 Bay Ave E Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$20,000	$20.00	17d	1	1.07mi
3 Debbie Trl Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1375	$5,500	$4.00	22d	1	1.08mi
60 Lynncliff Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1536	$27,000	$17.58	45d	1	1.14mi
6 Rolling Hill Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1697	$18,000	$10.61	0d	1	1.28mi
104 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	900	$15,000	$16.67	45d	1	1.29mi
45 Bellows Ter Unit B Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	1722	$7,000	$4.07	45d	1	1.33mi
111 Fanning Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1474	$20,000	$13.57	7d	1	1.34mi
7 Huckleberry Ln Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	1608	$15,000	$9.33	1d	1	1.37mi
10 Columbine Ave N Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	1560	$45,000	$28.85	26d	1	1.39mi
36 Nautilus Dr Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	1726	$36,000	$20.86	45d	1	1.39mi
43B Old Squires Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$8,000	$6.67	16d	1	1.42mi
3 Foster Ave Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1400	$5,000	$3.57	45d	1	1.42mi
15 Gardners Ln Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1665	$30,000	$18.02	20d	1	1.46mi
20A Columbine Ave N Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1073	$10,000	$9.32	16d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $885,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $885,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $885,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $885,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $885,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $885,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $885,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $885,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $885,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $885,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $885,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $885,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $885,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 553-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    listed $885,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,289 · $357/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,623 · $802/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,334/yr (+$444/mo · 124.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $113,616
• − Mortgage interest: −$49,574
• − Property taxes: −$4,289
• − Insurance: −$4,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,089
• − Management: −$9,089
• − Depreciation: −$25,745
• Taxable income: $11,404
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,737
• After-tax cash flow: $22,613/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1866.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $885,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $169,500 Public Records
• 1998-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,289 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.