4040 San Felipe St #104 · Houston, TX 77027

$125,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · Condo public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1956 $160/sqft · 26% below area Est $168k · 26% under $448/mo HOA · 25% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This well-maintained condo is nestled in the desirable River Oaks, just minutes from everything; The Galleria is right down the street. This home offers both comfort and convenience, complete with an in-unit washer and dryer. Enjoy the large pool outside your front door, easy Covered parking right outside your back door, plus an additional private back patio. Included are the working appliances; refrigerator, stove, washer, dryer and microwave oven. The community is beautifully maintained and includes a large pool and 24-hour gate attendant for added peace of mind. With shops, dining, and entertainment all within walking distance, this location truly has it all!

Key facts

• Private storage room
• Large pool
• $448 HOA

Tags

• IN UNIT WASHER AND DRYER
• PRIVATE STORAGE ROOM
• LARGE POOL
• 24 HOUR GATE ATTENDANT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($470/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.34%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,943
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -25.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-22,693
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-35,540
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77027

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,801 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,737/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$448
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,752

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $110	-5% $75	+0% $39	+5% $4	+10% $-32
Rent	-10% $-103	-5% $-32	+0% $39	+5% $110	+10% $181
Rate	-1.0pp $102	-0.5pp $71	base $39	+0.5pp $7	+1.0pp $-26

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2121 Mid Ln Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	914	$1,520	$1.66	8d	14	0.16mi
70 E Briar Hollow Ln Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	1026	$1,544	$1.50	0d	23	0.16mi
4000 San Felipe St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	878	$2,598	$2.96	25d	1	0.17mi
2311 Mid Ln Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–3.5	1490	$3,933	$2.64	0d	18	0.29mi
2303 Mid Ln Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	1085	$2,685	$2.47	0d	15	0.29mi
2200 Willowick Rd Unit 759 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	922	$1,525	$1.65	25d	1	0.30mi
2200 Willowick Rd Unit 10229 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	808	$1,504	$1.86	25d	1	0.30mi
58 E Briar Hollow Ln Unit 11257 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	846	$1,342	$1.59	25d	1	0.32mi
1919 Post Oak Park Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1103	$1,355	$1.23	3d	41	0.35mi
4300 Westheimer Rd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	837	$1,979	$2.36	15d	1	0.42mi
2031 Westcreek Ln Unit 3337 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	892	$1,311	$1.47	25d	1	0.44mi
2031 Westcreek Ln Unit 2046 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	695	$1,530	$2.20	16d	1	0.44mi
2031 Westcreek Ln Unit 1145 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	874	$1,299	$1.49	25d	1	0.44mi
2031 Westcreek Ln Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1016	$2,165	$2.13	8d	1	0.44mi
2031 Westcreek Ln Unit 112 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	627	$1,289	$2.06	0d	1	0.44mi
2031 Westcreek Ln Unit 425 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1016	$2,149	$2.12	0d	1	0.44mi
2031 Westcreek Ln Unit 1112 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	724	$1,659	$2.29	0d	1	0.44mi
2031 Westcreek Ln Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1016	$2,190	$2.16	0d	1	0.44mi
2031 Westcreek Ln Unit 321 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	724	$1,670	$2.31	8d	1	0.44mi
2031 Westcreek Ln Unit 2073 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	627	$1,319	$2.10	12d	1	0.44mi
2031 Westcreek Ln Unit 1162 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	724	$1,670	$2.31	6d	1	0.44mi
2031 Westcreek Ln Unit 2046 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	724	$1,709	$2.36	12d	1	0.44mi
2031 Westcreek Ln Unit 2068 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1016	$2,189	$2.15	12d	1	0.44mi
1875 Post Oak Park Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1089	$1,320	$1.21	0d	23	0.44mi
4416 Westheimer Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1047	$2,140	$2.04	44d	1	0.45mi
4410 Westheimer Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,701	$1.64	0d	21	0.47mi
2511 Willowick Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	787	$2,515	$3.20	13d	6	0.47mi
2511 Willowick Rd Unit 1165 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	787	$2,515	$3.20	0d	1	0.47mi
4401 Westheimer Rd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	780	$1,579	$2.02	25d	1	0.48mi
2598 Willowick Rd Houston, TX	—	1.0	617	$1,485	$2.41	25d	1	0.48mi
2511 Willowick Rd Unit 2022 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	846	$1,498	$1.77	25d	1	0.48mi
2511 Willowick Rd Unit 2526 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	787	$2,565	$3.26	12d	1	0.48mi
2511 Willowick Rd Unit 1321 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	934	$1,503	$1.61	25d	1	0.48mi
2511 Willowick Rd Unit 2526 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	856	$2,958	$3.46	16d	1	0.48mi
4444 Westheimer Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1092	$2,221	$2.03	0d	19	0.49mi
4006 Essex Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1048	$1,818	$1.73	44d	1	0.49mi
2037 Westcreek Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1016	$1,910	$1.88	44d	1	0.49mi
2020 Westcreek Ln Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	1167	$3,662	$3.14	2d	28	0.50mi
4000 Essex Ln Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,181	$1.31	0d	20	0.53mi
2031 Westcreek Ln Houston, TX	—	1.0	617	$1,485	$2.41	25d	1	0.53mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $448 · $5,376/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-18
   listed $125,000 Active 670-char remark

   Show marketing remark (670 chars)

   This well-maintained condo is nestled in the desirable River Oaks, just minutes from everything; The Galleria is right down the street. This home offers both comfort and convenience, complete with an in-unit washer and dryer. Enjoy the large pool outside your front door, easy Covered parking right outside your back door, plus an additional private back patio. Included are the working appliances; refrigerator, stove, washer, dryer and microwave oven. The community is beautifully maintained and includes a large pool and 24-hour gate attendant for added peace of mind. With shops, dining, and entertainment all within walking distance, this location truly has it all!

2. 2026-04-18
   listed $125,000 Active 670-char remark

   Show marketing remark (670 chars)

   This well-maintained condo is nestled in the desirable River Oaks, just minutes from everything; The Galleria is right down the street. This home offers both comfort and convenience, complete with an in-unit washer and dryer. Enjoy the large pool outside your front door, easy Covered parking right outside your back door, plus an additional private back patio. Included are the working appliances; refrigerator, stove, washer, dryer and microwave oven. The community is beautifully maintained and includes a large pool and 24-hour gate attendant for added peace of mind. With shops, dining, and entertainment all within walking distance, this location truly has it all!

3. 2009-12-08
   soldstatus
4. 2001-04-06
   soldstatus
5. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,737 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,737 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,613
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,737
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,729
• − Management: −$1,729
• − HOA: −$5,376
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,222
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$293
• After-tax cash flow: $763/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,317
• Household income: $103,812
• Rent vs Own: 69.8% rent · 30.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1336.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 10% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 12% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -156.66%
• Current HPI: 232.8691
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.43%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $125,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2009-12-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-04-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,737 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.