15 Joshua Way · Walthourville, GA 31301

$199,954

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,524 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 0.30 ac lot $131/sqft · 10% below area Est $223k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

LOT 42 SIT ON ABOUT HALF AN ACRE!!! Don't miss out on this Charming NEW 4 bedroom / 2-bathroom home that HAS IT ALL!!! Open and inviting floor plan, elegant white cabinetry, upgraded lighting fixtures and recessed lighting. Complete modern home essentials with a comfortable layout. Double vanity in master bathroom with a tub/shower. Brand new appliances! Home has a 1-year manufacture warranty. VISIT the property today. Seller is a licensed Realtor in GA. Grass Seed has been planted. Homes qualify for FHA and VA loans with a permanent foundation.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Built 2026
• Listed 27 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $308 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.4% in Walthourville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#255 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 140 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $311 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,954 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.61%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,522
• List price: $199,954
• Delta: -10.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3573 SE Arnall Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,596 (+5%)	2mo	$246,900	$155	61
184 Fawn Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,527 (+0%)	11mo	$282,595	$185	60
83 Pinewood Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,423 (-7%)	10mo	$274,500	$193	55
425 Winchester Way SE	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,459 (-4%)	13mo	$219,000	$150	54
1261 Talmadge Rd	0.61mi	4/2.5	1,609 (+6%)	13mo	$271,000	$168	50
74 Griffin Rd	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,565 (+3%)	22mo	$265,000	$169	46
3649 Arnold Drive Dr SE	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,631 (+7%)	23mo	$233,850	$143	42
65 Morningside Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-15%)	9mo	$248,500	$191	30
139 Winchester Way SE	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,729 (+14%)	20mo	$255,000	$147	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $15,286
• Equity at exit: $59,619

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $66,626
• Equity at exit: $72,921

Cash invested: $55,987 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31301

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,139 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,999/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $308

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $199,954

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,988
• Closing costs: $5,999
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43 Sandy Run Rd SE Allenhurst, GA	4.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	43d	1	1.00mi
373 Carter Rd Unit A Allenhurst, GA	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,900	$1.59	43d	1	1.20mi
119 Belleau Woods Cir Unit 27 Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1444	$2,075	$1.44	43d	1	1.41mi
23 Belleau Woods Cir Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1444	$1,975	$1.37	43d	1	1.42mi
559 McCumber Dr Allenhurst, GA	3.0	2.0	1936	$1,800	$0.93	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $199,954 Pending 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,954 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,954 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $199,954 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-05-19
   price $199,958 552-char remark
6. 2026-05-15
   price $199,959 552-char remark
7. 2026-05-12
   price $199,961 552-char remark
8. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 555-char remark
9. 2026-05-05
   price $199,962 552-char remark
10. 2026-05-05
    price $199,873 555-char remark
11. 2026-05-04
    price $199,963 552-char remark
12. 2026-05-04
    price $199,874 555-char remark
13. 2026-05-01
    price $199,875 555-char remark
14. 2026-05-01
    price $199,965 552-char remark
15. 2026-05-01
    price $199,966 552-char remark
16. 2026-04-29
    price $199,876 555-char remark
17. 2026-04-28
    price $199,877 555-char remark
18. 2026-04-27
    price $199,878 555-char remark
19. 2026-04-23
    price $199,879 555-char remark
20. 2026-04-23
    price $199,880 555-char remark
21. 2026-04-22
    price $199,881 555-char remark
22. 2026-04-21
    price $199,882 555-char remark
23. 2026-04-20
    price $199,883 555-char remark
24. 2026-04-16
    price $199,884 555-char remark
25. 2026-04-15
    price $199,886 555-char remark
26. 2026-04-15
    price $199,887 555-char remark
27. 2026-04-10
    price $199,889 555-char remark
28. 2026-04-09
    price $199,890 555-char remark
29. 2026-04-08
    price $199,892 555-char remark
30. 2026-04-07
    price $199,893 555-char remark
31. 2026-04-07
    price $199,894 555-char remark
32. 2026-04-04
    price $199,895 555-char remark
33. 2026-04-02
    price $199,896 555-char remark
34. 2026-04-01
    price $199,898 555-char remark
35. 2026-03-31
    price $199,899 555-char remark
36. 2026-03-30
    price $199,997 555-char remark
37. 2026-03-10
    listed $199,968 Active 552-char remark
38. 2026-02-15
    listed $199,998 Active 555-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,673
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,201
• − Property taxes: −$2,999
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,054
• − Management: −$2,054
• − Depreciation: −$5,817
• Taxable income: $549
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$132
• After-tax cash flow: $3,568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern updates and a well-maintained exterior. It's move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some small aesthetic upgrades to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value
• Resale Install new window treatments — Updated window treatments can improve the home's aesthetic
• Both Add a small front porch — A front porch can increase both resale and rental value by providing a welcoming entrance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value ↑
• Resale Install new window treatments — Updated window treatments can improve the home's aesthetic ↑
• Both Add a small front porch — A front porch can increase both resale and rental value by providing a welcoming entrance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

Livability — Walthourville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #14108

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 58,565 people
• City population: 4,933
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 4,933
• Household income: $65,417
• Rent vs Own: 55.7% rent · 44.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 121.0

Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% White 31% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.16%
• Current HPI: 187.7716
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-0.0% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $199,954 HABR
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $199,955 HABR
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $199,957 HABR
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $199,958 HABR
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $199,959 HABR
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $199,961 HABR
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $199,962 HABR
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $199,873 HABR
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $199,963 HABR
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $199,874 HABR
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $199,875 HABR
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $199,965 HABR
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $199,966 HABR
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $199,876 HABR
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $199,877 HABR
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $199,878 HABR
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $199,879 HABR
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $199,880 HABR
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $199,881 HABR
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $199,882 HABR
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $199,883 HABR
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $199,884 HABR
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $199,886 HABR
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $199,887 HABR
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $199,889 HABR
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $199,890 HABR
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $199,892 HABR
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $199,893 HABR
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $199,894 HABR
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $199,895 HABR
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $199,896 HABR
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $199,898 HABR
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $199,899 HABR
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $199,997 HABR