Osprey Plan · Mascotte, FL 34736

$235,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,404 sqft · Townhouse · 181 Days on market

Excellent condition Garage $263/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Explore the Osprey townhome which offers 1,404 square feet of living space, three bedrooms, two and a half baths, and a one car garage. Enter from the front porch into the heart of this charming townhome with its open great room and kitchen with large island layout that is perfect for entertaining and everyday meals. Sharing the first level are a half bath, one-car garage and an outdoor patio, while upstairs are two bedrooms with a full bath and a spacious primary suite with walk-in closet and double vanity bathroom. The laundry area is upstairs for added convenience. There is plenty of storage in this townhome with under stair storage, a large pantry, linen closet and 3-bedroom closets.

Key facts

• Large island layout
• Walk-in closet
• Open great room

Tags

• OPEN GREAT ROOM
• LARGE ISLAND LAYOUT
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DOUBLE VANITY BATHROOM
• UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY AREA

🏗️ New construction. The $235,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $285,380.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $235k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-412 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (1.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#405 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Groveland Elementary School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 744 students, 63% FRL); Gray Middle School (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 1,148 students, 47% FRL); South Lake High School (math 36% / reading 39%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 2,169 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 785 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 28d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $206,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.19%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $285,380
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -9.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7605 Waterscape Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,404 (0%)	13mo	$283,654	$202	88
7651 Waterscape Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,404 (0%)	12mo	$260,000	$185	84
7803 Waterscape Dr	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,404 (0%)	12mo	$252,000	$179	79
7649 Waterscape Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,455 (+4%)	12mo	$252,000	$173	79
7631 Waterscape Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,558 (+11%)	6mo	$290,000	$186	72
7633 Waterscape Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,558 (+11%)	6mo	$285,000	$183	72
7607 Waterscape Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,558 (+11%)	13mo	$289,999	$186	69
7801 Waterscape Dr	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,558 (+11%)	9mo	$283,400	$182	64
7771 Waterscape Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,552 (+10%)	13mo	$310,000	$200	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-75,340
• Equity at exit: $42,551

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-110,778
• Equity at exit: $24,674

Cash invested: $79,906 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 9 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 54.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $265,000 ($170/sqft)
• Median days on market: 65 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +19.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34736

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 785
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,308 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,497
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$357 /mo · $4,281/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$263
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-412

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,829

Max offer price $225,753

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-215	-5% $-313	+0% $-412	+5% $-511	+10% $-609
Rent	-10% $-594	-5% $-503	+0% $-412	+5% $-321	+10% $-230
Rate	-1.0pp $-268	-0.5pp $-339	base $-412	+0.5pp $-486	+1.0pp $-561

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,345
• Closing costs: $8,561
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7629 Waterscape Dr Groveland, FL	3.0	2.5	1404	$1,950	$1.39	30d	1	0.13mi
7633 Waterscape DR Groveland, FL	3.0	2.5	1558	$2,000	$1.28	10d	1	0.13mi
7412 Capstone Dr Groveland, FL	4.0	2.0	1848	$2,400	$1.30	10d	1	0.33mi
7201 Big Cedar Aly Groveland, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,000	$1.33	119d	1	0.47mi
338 Ridgemark Ave Groveland, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,300	$1.26	100d	1	0.51mi
253 Luxmore Rd Groveland, FL	3.0	2.0	1547	$2,100	$1.36	27d	1	0.68mi
2009 Sloans Outlook Dr Groveland, FL	3.0	2.0	1670	$2,300	$1.38	5d	1	1.17mi
6422 Quartet St Unit Na Mascotte, FL	3.0	2.0	1766	$2,395	$1.36	7d	1	1.35mi
6337 Chorus Dr Groveland, FL	3.0	2.0	1772	$2,250	$1.27	119d	1	1.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveListing provided by Zillow
• Financial info: List price $276,889

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-story plan named Osprey (new construction plan)
• Exterior features: Address: 7677 Gemstone St, Groveland, FL 34736

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area of approximately 1,404 square feet

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $235,000 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $235,000 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   pricedays on market $235,000 Active 179 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $257,000 Active 178 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $257,000 Active 177 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $257,000 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $257,000 Active 175 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $257,000 Active 174 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $257,000 Active 173 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $257,000 Active 172 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $257,000 Active 171 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $257,000 Active 170 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $257,000 Active 169 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $257,000 Active 168 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $257,000 Active 162 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $257,000 Active 161 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $257,000 Active 160 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $257,000 Active 157 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $257,000 Active 156 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $257,000 Active 155 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $257,000 Active 154 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $257,000 Active 153 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $257,000 Active 151 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    pricedays on market $257,000 Active 150 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $242,289 Active 148 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $242,289 Active 147 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $242,289 Active 146 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $242,289 Active 145 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $242,289 Active 144 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $242,289 Active 143 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $242,289 Active 142 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $242,289 Active 140 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $242,289 Active 139 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $242,289 Active 138 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $242,289 Active 137 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $242,289 Active 136 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $242,289 Active 135 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $242,289 Active 134 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $242,289 Active 132 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $242,289 Active 131 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $242,289 Active 130 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $242,289 Active 129 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $242,289 Active 126 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $242,289 Active 125 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $242,289 Active 124 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $242,289 Active 123 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $242,289 Active 121 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $242,289 Active 119 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $242,289 Active 118 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $242,289 Active 117 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,693
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,986
• − Property taxes: −$4,281
• − Insurance: −$1,427
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,215
• − Management: −$2,215
• − HOA: −$3,156
• − Depreciation: −$8,302
• Taxable loss: −$9,889
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,373
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,571/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This Osprey townhome in Mascotte, FL is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers 1,404 square feet of living space, three bedrooms, two and a half baths, and a one-car garage. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Interior cleaning — A clean interior can make the home more appealing to potential buyers or renters ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Groveland Elementary School F FL #1,854/2,144 Nat'l #26,096/41,679 Middle Gray Middle School D FL #310/571 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High South Lake High School F FL #336/667 Nat'l #8,937/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Mascotte

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #405
• US rank: #7156

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mascotte, FL
• County: Lake County · 386,640 people
• City population: 33,565
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,001
• Household income: $90,545
• Rent vs Own: 11.3% rent · 88.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 0% of renters

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Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 17% Black 15% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 15% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.23%
• Current HPI: 265.3457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.67%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveListing provided by Zillow
• Financial info: List price $276,889

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-story plan named Osprey (new construction plan)
• Exterior features: Address: 7677 Gemstone St, Groveland, FL 34736

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area of approximately 1,404 square feet