205 N 21st St · Lamesa, TX 79331

$149,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Built 1955 7,492 sqft lot ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

UPDATED 3 BED 2 BATH Beautifully fully renovated home with extensive interior and exterior upgrades throughout. This property features new luxury vinyl plank flooring, fresh interior paint on walls, ceilings, doors, and trim, new baseboards, updated lighting, and new window blinds installed throughout the home. Most of the electrical system has been rewired (approximately 95%), and all outlets and switches have been replaced. The updated kitchen includes freshly painted cabinets, new cabinet hardware, granite countertops, a new tile backsplash, and a new sink and faucet. New appliances including a range and vent hood complete the modern kitchen space. Both bathrooms have been completely upg

Key facts

• 7,492 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1955

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#445 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Lamesa ISD (town): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #755 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1 units permitted in Dawson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.74%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-9,198
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $11,304
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79331

• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$186 /mo · $2,235/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,303

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
803 N 18th St Lamesa, TX	3.0	2.0	1539	$1,600	$1.04	44d	1	0.46mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   price $149,000
3. 2026-03-07
   status Active
4. 2026-03-03
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-02
   listed $156,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,235
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $467
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$112
• After-tax cash flow: $2,699/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamesa ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826610
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,346
• Composite: 18.85/100
• National rank: #8862
• State rank: #755 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lamesa

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #445
• US rank: #9067

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lamesa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,751

Population outlook (Dawson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,411 people
• By 2030: 12,268 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 12,260 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 12,117 · -2.4%
• By 2075: 11,504 · -7.3%
• By 2100: 10,176 · -18.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 34% Two or more races 24% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 52%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Polish 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dawson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.0% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.2pp toward R · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+50.6 2012: R+43.2 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.06%
• Current HPI: 135.9298
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $149,000 LARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $156,000 LARMLS