4 Shadow Lake Dr · Fairview, NJ 07701

$525,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,332 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1948 5,227 sqft lot Est $749k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits at 4 Shadow Lake Drive in the highly sought-after River Plaza section of Middletown, just minutes from vibrant downtown Red Bank. Nestled in a beautiful neighborhood near Shadow Lake, the Navesink River & Swimming River Park and boat ramp, this fixer-upper offers endless potential for investors, builders, or buyers ready to create their dream home.

Key facts

• River plaza section
• Navesink river
• Swimming river park

Tags

• RIVER PLAZA SECTION
• NAVESINK RIVER
• SWIMMING RIVER PARK
• BOAT RAMP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Located in River Plaza / Middletown area
• Exterior features: Sloping roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3 total)
• Heating & cooling: Hot water and baseboard heating (other / see remarks); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No fireplaces; Full unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $525k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-476/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $518k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $472k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $472k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.6% in Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#174 in NJ, #4,548 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute C-, schools D-, cost of living F.
• Middletown Township Public School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #135 of 472 in NJ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 141 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,717/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($112k/yr) (locally 854% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $471,685 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.32%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $748,584
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
921 Park Pl	0.03mi	4/1.0	1,350 (+1%)	2mo	$730,000	$541	93
40 Foster St	0.13mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,200 (-10%)	2mo	$860,000	$717	71
15 Hillside St	0.46mi	4/3.0	1,395 (+5%)	6mo	$808,000	$579	60
47 Mclean St	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,464 (+10%)	1mo	$870,000	$594	58
159 Davis Ln	0.44mi	4/1.5	1,440 (+8%)	9mo	$700,000	$486	58
916 Park Pl	0.05mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,144 (-14%)	13mo	$705,000	$616	56
79 Lake Shore Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,441 (+8%)	5mo	$810,000	$562	54
67 Victoria Pl	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,292 (-3%)	3mo	$660,000	$511	51
99 Roosevelt Cir E	0.68mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,372 (+3%)	9mo	$580,000	$423	49
96 Cooper Blvd	0.54mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,514 (+14%)	1mo	$685,000	$452	46
145 River St	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,380 (+4%)	10mo	$700,000	$507	43
90 Campbell St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,192 (-10%)	13mo	$787,700	$661	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-70,504
• Equity at exit: $78,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $10,613
• Equity at exit: $45,392

Cash invested: $147,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07701

• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,717 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax from tax record: −$794 /mo · $9,529/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$991
• Net cashflow: $-40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,767

Max offer price $517,991

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $258	-5% $109	+0% $-40	+5% $-188	+10% $-337
Rent	-10% $-412	-5% $-226	+0% $-40	+5% $147	+10% $333
Rate	-1.0pp $225	-0.5pp $94	base $-40	+0.5pp $-176	+1.0pp $-314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,250
• Closing costs: $15,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
96 Lake Shore Dr Red Bank, NJ	3.0	2.0	1382	$5,500	$3.98	4d	1	0.42mi
35 E Westside Ave Red Bank, NJ	3.0	1.5	1400	$3,650	$2.61	17d	1	1.02mi
12 Market St Red Bank, NJ	3.0	1.0	1180	$3,950	$3.35	0d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $525,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $525,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $525,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   remarks 371-char remark
5. 2026-06-01
   listed $525,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,529 · $794/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,301 · $942/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,772/yr (+$148/mo · 18.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,408
• − Property taxes: −$9,529
• − Insurance: −$2,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,528
• − Management: −$4,528
• − Depreciation: −$15,273
• Taxable loss: −$9,289
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,229
• After-tax cash flow: $1,753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown Township Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3410110
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $100,708
• Composite: 45.08/100
• National rank: #2694
• State rank: #135 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Fairview

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #174
• US rank: #4548

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute C- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monmouth County · 505,557 people
• City population: 15,099
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,376
• Household income: $112,143
• Rent vs Own: 34.8% rent · 65.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 854.0

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -428.28%
• Current HPI: 350.124
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.45%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $525,000 MOMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,529 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.