816 Gulf Pavilion Dr #102 · Naples Park, FL 34108

$429,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,179 sqft · Condo public records · 202 Days on market

Built 1988 $677/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LOWEST-PRICED lakefront unit in the entire community. PRICED TO SELL- Located in the desirable Pavilion Club, this FIRST-FLOOR residence. Turnkey Living Near the Beach & Mercato - this ideal location allows you to embrace the true Florida lifestyle—where you can bike or walk to Vanderbilt Beach, the Ritz-Carlton, Mercato, local cafés, and boutiques - plus a short drive to Fifth Ave dining and shopping, and other local attractions. Residents also enjoy Pelican Bay Community Park's pickleball and tennis courts, located just across the street. Experience the perfect blend of easy beachside living and low-maintenance luxury in this beautifully updated, furnished first-floor c

Key facts

• Built-in cabinetry
• First-floor condo
• Lake view

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• FIRST-FLOOR CONDO
• AIR-CONDITIONED LANAI
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BUILT-IN CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of a complex with 156 units (8 units in building); 1 unit per floor in building; Condo fees referenced with one-time and annual totals
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (on-site management); Quarterly condo fee; HOA covers cable, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, manager, repairs, reserves, security, street lights; Community amenities: BBQ/picnic area, bike and jog path, community pool, community room, community spa/hot tub, streetlights; Total annual recurring HOA fees listed quarterly

Exterior

• Parking: 1 assigned parking space; Guest parking available; Detached 1-car carport
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available; Electric service for heat and cooling
• Home design: Residential property in a gated community (Pavilion Club); Low-rise building (1-3), 2-story building; Zero lot line; Rear exposure to the east
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Built in 1988
• Exterior features: Patio; Lake view; Has waterfront (lake)

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop - Electric; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator/Freezer; Freezer
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (split bedroom layout)
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Cable prewire; Smoke detectors; Turnkey furnished; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Guest bath; Guest room; Screened lanai/porch; Split bedroom floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $429k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $459 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $429k).
• Recommended offer: $378k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#696 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A-, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Naples Park Elementary School (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 395 students, 48% FRL); Pine Ridge Middle School (math 74% / reading 70%, grade A, #52 of 571 statewide, top 10%, 832 students, 31% FRL); Barron Collier High School (math 62% / reading 68%, grade B, #76 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,650 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 35% FRL vs 55% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 684 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,940/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($119k/yr) (locally 237% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $120k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 202 days — a 12% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $377,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 202 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.58%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-13,817
• Equity at exit: $63,965

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $145,919
• Equity at exit: $37,092

Cash invested: $120,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34108

• Rents YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 684
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,940 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,250
• Tax from tax record: −$338 /mo · $4,058/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$677
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,037
• Net cashflow: $459

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,359

Max offer price $429,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $702	-5% $580	+0% $459	+5% $337	+10% $216
Rent	-10% $69	-5% $264	+0% $459	+5% $654	+10% $849
Rate	-1.0pp $675	-0.5pp $568	base $459	+0.5pp $348	+1.0pp $235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,250
• Closing costs: $12,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
822 Gulf Pavilion Dr #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1275	$6,500	$5.10	25d	1	0.02mi
815 Gulf Pavilion Dr #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1179	$3,500	$2.97	25d	1	0.07mi
840 Gulf Pavilion Dr #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1179	$5,500	$4.66	25d	1	0.07mi
749 91st Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	1417	$3,750	$2.65	15d	1	0.14mi
829 Reef Point Cir Unit 46 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1359	$7,500	$5.52	25d	1	0.22mi
791 94th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$9,000	$6.43	25d	1	0.23mi
845 Reef Point Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1359	$4,200	$3.09	25d	1	0.25mi
857 Reef Point Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1359	$7,500	$5.52	25d	1	0.25mi
719 Reef Point Cir #13 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1343	$8,000	$5.96	25d	1	0.26mi
714 Reef Point Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1347	$8,500	$6.31	15d	1	0.29mi
757 95th Ave N Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,150	$1.95	25d	1	0.31mi
8385 Excalibur Cir Unit G3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1382	$10,000	$7.24	25d	1	0.35mi
717 95th Ave N Unit 1 Naples, FL	2.0	1.0	1500	$2,100	$1.40	25d	1	0.36mi
9123 Strada Pl Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1267	$14,000	$11.05	15d	6	0.37mi
661 Windsurf Ln Unit A-202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$7,500	$5.56	15d	1	0.39mi
655 Windsurf Ln Unit 1546357P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$3,376	$2.34	15d	1	0.39mi
8405 Excalibur Cir Unit D3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1382	$9,000	$6.51	25d	1	0.40mi
650 93rd Ave N Unit 1073498P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$5,136	$3.56	15d	1	0.40mi
671 94th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1464	$6,800	$4.64	25d	1	0.41mi
649 Beachwalk Cir Unit C101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$7,500	$5.17	15d	1	0.42mi
9115 Strada Pl Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1489	$13,000	$8.73	25d	4	0.43mi
8415 Excalibur Cir Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1522	$9,750	$6.40	25d	1	0.44mi
643 Beachwalk Cir Unit D-202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$5,950	$4.41	15d	1	0.45mi
500 Lambiance Cir Unit 5-104 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1349	$8,000	$5.93	25d	1	0.45mi
522 Beachwalk Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1359	$6,000	$4.42	25d	1	0.47mi
878 Meadowland Dr Unit 4 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1459	$6,500	$4.46	15d	1	0.48mi
878 Meadowland Dr Unit G Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1282	$2,500	$1.95	15d	1	0.48mi
549 Beachwalk Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1359	$7,500	$5.52	25d	1	0.49mi
645 95th Ave N Unit 1 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	957	$2,750	$2.87	15d	1	0.49mi
630 95th Ave N Unit S Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1411	$5,500	$3.90	25d	1	0.50mi
630 95th Ave N Unit A Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,995	$2.12	25d	1	0.50mi
400 L Ambiance Cir #104 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1349	$6,500	$4.82	15d	1	0.51mi
631 Beachwalk Cir Unit F204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$7,500	$5.17	15d	1	0.51mi
559 Beachwalk Cir Apt 203U Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$7,000	$5.19	15d	1	0.51mi
559 Beachwalk Cir Unit U204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1472	$7,500	$5.10	15d	1	0.51mi
668 97th Ave N Unit A Naples, FL	2.0	1.0	775	$4,500	$5.81	25d	1	0.51mi
595 93rd Ave N Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1374	$5,000	$3.64	25d	1	0.54mi
565 Beachwalk Cir Unit T-102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$7,300	$5.41	15d	1	0.55mi
565 Beachwalk Cir Unit T104 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$6,750	$4.66	15d	1	0.55mi
100 Lambiance Cir Unit 1-101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1389	$8,800	$6.34	25d	1	0.56mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $677 · $8,124/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 49 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $429,000 Active 202 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $429,000 Active 199 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $429,000 Active 198 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $429,000 Active 197 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $429,000 Active 196 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   status $429,000 Pending 192 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $429,000 Active 192 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $429,000 Active 191 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $429,000 Active 187 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $429,000 Active 186 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $429,000 Active 185 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $429,000 Active 184 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $429,000 Active 183 DOM
14. 2026-05-06
    price $429,000
15. 2026-03-30
    price $439,000
16. 2026-03-10
    price $449,700
17. 2026-02-12
    price $475,000
18. 2026-01-19
    status Active
19. 2026-01-13
    historical
20. 2025-11-23
    listed $499,000 Active
21. 2025-11-22
    historical $3,500
22. 2025-03-05
    historical
23. 2025-03-02
    historical $3,500
24. 2025-01-28
    listed $3,500
25. 2024-12-04
    listed $524,200 Active
26. 2024-11-27
    listed $3,500
27. 2024-11-27
    historical $6,500
28. 2024-11-26
    listed $6,500
29. 2024-11-16
    historical $3,100
30. 2024-09-25
    historical
31. 2024-08-24
    historical $3,100
32. 2024-08-18
    listed $3,100
33. 2024-06-11
    price $539,900
34. 2024-06-05
    listed $3,200
35. 2024-06-05
    historical $3,200
36. 2024-05-25
    listed $543,000 Active
37. 2024-05-21
    listed $3,200
38. 2021-08-18
    soldstatus $375,000
39. 2021-08-17
    historical
40. 2021-08-16
    soldstatus $375,000 Sold
41. 2021-05-27
    status Pending With Contingencies
42. 2021-05-05
    price $379,000
43. 2021-03-30
    listed $384,900 Active
44. 2021-01-07
    historical
45. 2020-03-04
    status Active
46. 2020-03-04
    status Pending With Contingencies
47. 2020-02-03
    listed $325,000 Active
48. 1998-06-18
    soldstatus $122,000
49. 1990-05-01
    soldstatus $104,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,058 · $338/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,058 · $338/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,279
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,031
• − Property taxes: −$4,058
• − Insurance: −$2,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,742
• − Management: −$4,742
• − HOA: −$8,124
• − Depreciation: −$12,480
• Taxable loss: −$1,044
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$251
• After-tax cash flow: $5,757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Naples Park

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #696
• US rank: #14564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 18,514
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,237
• Household income: $119,212
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 237.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Dominican Republic, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -587.97%
• Current HPI: 275.1872
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.74%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+312.5% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $429,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $439,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $449,700 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $475,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-19 Relisted — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-11-23 Listed $499,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-11-22 Rental Removed $3,500 APPFOLIO
• 2025-03-05 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-03-02 Rental Removed $3,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-01-28 Listed for Rent $3,500 APPFOLIO
• 2024-12-04 Listed $524,200 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-11-27 Listed for Rent $3,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-11-27 Rental Removed $6,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-11-26 Listed for Rent $6,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-11-16 Rental Removed $3,100 APPFOLIO
• 2024-09-25 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2024-08-24 Rental Removed $3,100 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-08-18 Listed for Rent $3,100 APPFOLIO
• 2024-06-11 Price Changed $539,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-06-05 Listed for Rent $3,200 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-06-05 Rental Removed $3,200 APPFOLIO
• 2024-05-25 Listed $543,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-05-21 Listed for Rent $3,200 APPFOLIO
• 2021-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-17 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2021-08-16 Sold (MLS) $375,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2021-05-27 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2021-05-05 Price Changed $379,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2021-03-30 Listed $384,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2021-01-07 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2020-03-04 Relisted — NAPLESMLS
• 2020-03-04 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2020-02-03 Listed $325,000 NAPLESMLS
• 1998-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records
• 1990-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $104,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,058 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.