112 Cambridge Cirlcle · Loch Sheldrake, NY 12759

$50,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 792 sqft · Manufactured · 144 Days on market

Built 1975 Good condition $754/mo HOA · 53% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This manufactured home is situated on a nice lot in the River Valley Estates mobile home park, located within the Tri-Valley School District. The home features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, an eat-in kitchen, a living room, washer and dryer hookups, and a sun porch perfect for enjoying warm summer nights. The community offers amenities such as a clubhouse, basketball court, tennis courts, and a playground. The owner is open to considering possible owner financing.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Sun porch
• Basketball court

Tags

• RIVER VALLEY ESTATES
• TRI-VALLEY SCHOOL DISTRICT
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• SUN PORCH
• CLUBHOUSE
• BASKETBALL COURT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($268/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#793 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Tri-Valley Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #488 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 53% of rent.

Recommended offer $44,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.92%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $29,141
• Equity at exit: $45,044

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.12×
• Total profit: $85,659
• Equity at exit: $97,139

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12759

• Home prices YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,420 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$754
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,392

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $754 · $9,048/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 144 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $50,000 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $50,000 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $50,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $50,000 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $50,000 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $50,000 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-04-24
   price $50,000 466-char remark

   Show marketing remark (466 chars)

   This manufactured home is situated on a nice lot in the River Valley Estates mobile home park, located within the Tri-Valley School District. The home features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, an eat-in kitchen, a living room, washer and dryer hookups, and a sun porch perfect for enjoying warm summer nights. The community offers amenities such as a clubhouse, basketball court, tennis courts, and a playground. The owner is open to considering possible owner financing.

9. 2026-01-15
   listed $59,500 Active 466-char remark

   Show marketing remark (466 chars)

   This manufactured home is situated on a nice lot in the River Valley Estates mobile home park, located within the Tri-Valley School District. The home features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, an eat-in kitchen, a living room, washer and dryer hookups, and a sun porch perfect for enjoying warm summer nights. The community offers amenities such as a clubhouse, basketball court, tennis courts, and a playground. The owner is open to considering possible owner financing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,363
• − Management: −$1,363
• − HOA: −$9,048
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $12
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3
• After-tax cash flow: $266/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through cosmetic updates and landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping can significantly improve curb appeal and property value
• Both Add a small front porch — A small front porch can enhance curb appeal and provide a welcoming entrance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping can significantly improve curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Add a small front porch — A small front porch can enhance curb appeal and provide a welcoming entrance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tri-Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628890
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,543
• Composite: 36.47/100
• National rank: #4662
• State rank: #488 of 590 in NY

Livability — Loch Sheldrake

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #793
• US rank: #15202

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,036
• Population (ZIP): 1,835

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 12% Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.94%
• Current HPI: 495.297
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-16.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $50,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Listed $59,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid