2400 Justin Pl · Lexington-Fayette, KY 40509

$225,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,552 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2000 9,713 sqft lot Est $314k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a well-kept one-owner home at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac. It features a great open living room with fireplace, a large kitchen with all appliances included, a big master bedroom with walk-in closet and the laundry room is upstairs. There is an attached 2 car garage w/ opener and remote. Out back there is a deck on the oversized lot. Don't miss out on this all-electric home. It's priced to sell. Call for your showing today.

Key facts

• 9,713 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2000

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty available

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (garage present)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: House; Two levels
• Construction: Brick veneer and vinyl siding; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Built area approximately 1,552
• Exterior features: Neighborhood view; Not on waterfront

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Forced air; Heat pump; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Ceiling fans; Fireplace; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($499/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.8% in Lexington-Fayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fayette County (urban): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #27 of 165 in KY (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #234 of 676 statewide, top 36%, 722 students, 38% FRL); Crawford Middle School (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #197 of 217 statewide, top 92%, 751 students, 68% FRL); Frederick Douglass High School (math 36% / reading 42%, grade F, #51 of 254 statewide, top 21%, 1,667 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,036 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (542 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fayette County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $225k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $184,309 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.79%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $313,504
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2404 Danby Woods Cir	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,668 (+8%)	5mo	$255,000	$153	81
2441 Treeline Way	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,690 (+9%)	2mo	$334,000	$198	77
833 Gerardi Rd	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,530 (-1%)	6mo	$305,000	$199	76
2228 Kenwood Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+1%)	0mo	$330,000	$210	73
2324 Liberty Station Ct	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,660 (+7%)	4mo	$336,000	$202	72
2556 Tinmouth Vale Ln	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,654 (+7%)	5mo	$283,632	$171	70
2204 Kenwood Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,600 (+3%)	2mo	$323,750	$202	68
436 Peachtree Rd	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,642 (+6%)	1mo	$165,000	$100	66
329 Mulberry Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,595 (+3%)	1mo	$217,000	$136	64
756 Rambling Creek Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+3%)	2mo	$330,000	$206	62
2186 Stonewood Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,479 (-5%)	1mo	$312,000	$211	55
2856 Ashby Glen Pl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-10%)	2mo	$295,000	$211	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-35,305
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-33,367
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40509

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,843 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,689/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,790

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $169	-5% $105	+0% $42	+5% $-22	+10% $-86
Rent	-10% $-104	-5% $-31	+0% $42	+5% $114	+10% $187
Rate	-1.0pp $155	-0.5pp $99	base $42	+0.5pp $-17	+1.0pp $-76

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
649 Hugging Bear Dr Lexington, KY	3.0	2.0	1253	$1,750	$1.40	23d	1	0.17mi
645 Declaration Ct Lexington, KY	3.0	2.5	1754	$2,045	$1.17	25d	1	0.27mi
2360 Liberty Rd Lexington, KY	3.0	2.0	1415	$1,895	$1.34	15d	1	0.28mi
308 Larkwood Dr Unit Z1 Lexington, KY	4.0	2.0	1361	$1,849	$1.36	15d	1	0.46mi
2240 Kenwood Dr Lexington, KY	3.0	2.0	1264	$1,795	$1.42	15d	1	0.47mi
262 Osage Ct Unit 1 Lexington, KY	3.0	1.5	1080	$1,475	$1.37	25d	1	0.54mi
179 Hedgewood Ct Unit 1 Lexington, KY	3.0	1.5	1080	$1,375	$1.27	25d	1	0.55mi
200 Alsab Ct Lexington, KY	2.0–3.0	1.5	940	$1,445	$1.54	25d	10	0.73mi
2561 Mackenzie Ln Lexington, KY	2.0	2.5	1250	$1,395	$1.12	15d	1	0.75mi
2548 Danielle Ln Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	15d	1	0.79mi
2543 Danielle Ln Lexington, KY	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	25d	1	0.81mi
300 Quinton Ct Lexington, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	927	$1,557	$1.68	15d	38	0.87mi
2498 Aristocracy Cir Lexington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.5–3.0	1360	$2,127	$1.56	15d	25	0.96mi
1424 Maybank Park Lexington, KY	4.0	3.0	2081	$3,250	$1.56	25d	1	1.00mi
805 Mickey Ln Lexington, KY	2.0	2.5	1458	$1,550	$1.06	25d	1	1.05mi
2627 Calgary Lexington, KY	2.0	2.5	1056	$1,595	$1.51	25d	1	1.05mi
409 Darby Creek Rd Unit Z1 Lexington, KY	2.0	1.5	1144	$1,299	$1.14	25d	1	1.13mi
365 Darby Creek Rd Lexington, KY	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,299	$1.08	25d	1	1.15mi
2365 Sir Barton Way Lexington, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$2,478	$2.36	15d	12	1.17mi
3050 Helmsdale Pl Lexington, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1016	$1,741	$1.71	25d	1	1.18mi
2334 Lake Park Rd Lexington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	837	$1,448	$1.73	15d	7	1.19mi
313 Bainbridge Dr Unit C Lexington, KY	2.0	2.5	2079	$1,650	$0.79	15d	1	1.22mi
2414 Lake Park Rd Lexington, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1123	$2,200	$1.96	23d	3	1.30mi
2414 Lake Park Rd Lexington, KY	2.0–3.0	2.0	1352	$2,200	$1.63	15d	2	1.30mi
100 Lakeshore Dr Lexington, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,560	$1.69	15d	14	1.39mi
455 Patchen Dr Lexington, KY	3.0	2.5	1550	$1,695	$1.09	23d	1	1.40mi
3200 Todds Rd Lexington, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,970	$2.32	15d	16	1.41mi
1809 Meeting St Lexington, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,003	$2.05	15d	22	1.42mi
3170 Mapleleaf Dr Lexington, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1075	$1,979	$1.84	15d	17	1.44mi
2151 Meeting St Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,237	$2.29	15d	39	1.44mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $225,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-09
    listed $225,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,689 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,935 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$246/yr (+$20/mo · 14.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,117
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,689
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,769
• − Management: −$1,769
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,385
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$812
• After-tax cash flow: $1,311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fayette County
• NCES district ID: 2101860
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,245
• Composite: 34.38/100
• National rank: #5211
• State rank: #27 of 165 in KY

Livability — Lexington-Fayette

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• County: Fayette County · 317,143 people
• City population: 321,882
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• Population (ZIP): 47,036
• Household income: $94,804
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1763.0

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 363,454 people
• By 2030: 388,270 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 438,688 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 490,667 · +35.0%
• By 2075: 625,394 · +72.1%
• By 2100: 721,354 · +98.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 14% Two or more races 8% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: D (+18.1) · D 58.0% · R 39.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.3pp toward D · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: 18.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.1 2020: D+20.8 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.72%
• Current HPI: 226.8663
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.22%
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+99.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $225,000 ImagineMLS
• 2007-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $139,900 Public Records
• 2007-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $139,900 Public Records
• 2007-05-04 Sold (MLS) $139,900 ImagineMLS
• 2007-03-26 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2007-03-19 Listed $139,900 ImagineMLS
• 2006-03-02 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2005-08-02 Listed $146,900 ImagineMLS
• 2001-02-23 Sold (MLS) $115,700 ImagineMLS
• 2001-01-22 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2000-10-17 Listed $112,900 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2015): $1,689 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.