229 Oakdale Dr · Waco, TX 76640

$214,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 117 Days on market

Built 2021 0.69 ac lot Est $228k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2021 Legacy Manufactured Home in the Connally ISD. This unique "end-load" home features three bedroom, two baths, 1,860 sqft, 3 lots (0.69 acres), built-in front porch, smart-panel siding, linoleum throughout living area, can lights, ceiling fans, pantry, kitchen island, thermopane windows, separate vanities, and a soaker tub and separate shower.

Key facts

• Separate vanities
• Thermopane windows
• Separate shower

Tags

• BUILT-IN FRONT PORCH
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• THERMOPANE WINDOWS
• SEPARATE VANITIES
• SOAKER TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-199 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (16.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, commute F.
• Connally ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #781 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $154k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,726 (27.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.96%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $228,480
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
471 Oakdale Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,680 (0%)	20mo	$235,000	$140	76
342 Eleanor Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,475 (-12%)	18mo	$199,900	$136	45
372 Eleanor Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,475 (-12%)	21mo	$199,900	$136	44
358 Eleanor Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,475 (-12%)	15mo	$198,900	$135	40
312 Eleanor Rd	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,920 (+14%)	24mo	$249,000	$130	36
312 Eleanor Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,920 (+14%)	24mo	$249,000	$130	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $13,220
• Equity at exit: $96,628

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $64,833
• Equity at exit: $148,916

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76640

• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,567 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,645/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $-199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,819

Max offer price $179,781

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-77	-5% $-138	+0% $-199	+5% $-260	+10% $-320
Rent	-10% $-323	-5% $-261	+0% $-199	+5% $-137	+10% $-75
Rate	-1.0pp $-91	-0.5pp $-144	base $-199	+0.5pp $-254	+1.0pp $-311

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
371 W Elm Mott Dr Unit NA Elm Mott, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,595	$1.03	45d	1	1.17mi
305 Shirley Dr Lacy Lakeview, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,525	$1.39	14d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $214,900 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $214,900 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-02-03
   listed $214,900 Active 358-char remark

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   2021 Legacy Manufactured Home in the Connally ISD. This unique "end-load" home features three bedroom, two baths, 1,860 sqft, 3 lots (0.69 acres), built-in front porch, smart-panel siding, linoleum throughout living area, can lights, ceiling fans, pantry, kitchen island, thermopane windows, separate vanities, and a soaker tub and separate shower.

4. 2025-04-04
   soldstatus $153,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,645 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,933 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,287/yr (+$107/mo · 48.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,807
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$2,645
• − Insurance: −$1,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,505
• − Management: −$1,505
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable loss: −$6,211
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,491
• After-tax cash flow: $-895/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Connally ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814970
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $35,388
• Composite: 16.9/100
• National rank: #9141
• State rank: #781 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 125,319
• Population (ZIP): 2,958

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 8% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+39.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Listed $214,900 LAAR
• 2025-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $153,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+36.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,645 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.