837 Walnut Grove Ln · Hanover, MN 55341

$464,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,891 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 7,318 sqft lot $246/sqft · 33% above area Est $497k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.4/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a To-Be-Built opportunity to build the brand new Hillcrest floorplan in the exciting new community of Oakview Ridge! Special builder incentive includes a FREE FINISHED WALKOUT BASEMENT! Choose which structural and design upgrades to add to the home and personalize every element in our Design Center! This exciting new two story Hillcrest home features: Four bedrooms on the upper level, including a private Primary suite with spacious bedroom and separate entries for the bathroom and walk-in closet; Upper level laundry room; Open concept main level Kitchen/Dining/Living Room; Centered electric fireplace in Living Room; Walk-in Pantry; Front door and Mudroom coat closets; Main level Powder Bath; Three-car garage with optional depth extension! No Community HOA! This amazing To-Be-Built opportunity is located near beautiful parks and scenery, popular eateries, and is located within the highly regarded St. Michael-Albertville Public Schools! Don’t miss out on this rare opportunity to live in a peaceful, close-knit community with all the space and amenities you’ve been looking for - schedule your visit today!

Key facts

• Walk-in pantry
• 7,318 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots

Tags

• FREE FINISHED WALKOUT BASEMENT
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• UPPER LEVEL LAUNDRY ROOM
• CENTERED ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• MAIN LEVEL POWDER BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $465k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (50.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (57.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (57.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.1% vs local median 4.1% in Hanover — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#293 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Michael-Albertville School District (rural): math 62% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #17 of 301 in MN (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,260 units permitted in Wright County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wright County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($458k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $200,000 (57.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.43% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.05%
• DSCR: 0.33
• GRM: 19.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $496,870
• List price: $464,900
• Delta: -6.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -45.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-179,299
• Equity at exit: $69,318

10-year hold

• IRR: -82.6%
• Equity multiple: -1.23×
• Total profit: $-289,918
• Equity at exit: $40,196

Cash invested: $130,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55341

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 19.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,438
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$581 /mo · $6,974/yr
• Insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-1,633

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,067

Max offer price $228,628

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $116,225
• Closing costs: $13,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11321 16th St NE Saint Michael, MN	3.0	3.0	1505	$2,000	$1.33	1d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $464,900 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $464,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $464,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $464,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $464,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $464,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $464,900 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $464,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $464,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    statusdays on marketlisting id $464,900 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-01-30
    price $464,900 1138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1138 chars)

    This is a To-Be-Built opportunity to build the brand new Hillcrest floorplan in the exciting new community of Oakview Ridge! Special builder incentive includes a FREE FINISHED WALKOUT BASEMENT! Choose which structural and design upgrades to add to the home and personalize every element in our Design Center! This exciting new two story Hillcrest home features: Four bedrooms on the upper level, including a private Primary suite with spacious bedroom and separate entries for the bathroom and walk-in closet; Upper level laundry room; Open concept main level Kitchen/Dining/Living Room; Centered electric fireplace in Living Room; Walk-in Pantry; Front door and Mudroom coat closets; Main level Powder Bath; Three-car garage with optional depth extension! No Community HOA! This amazing To-Be-Built opportunity is located near beautiful parks and scenery, popular eateries, and is located within the highly regarded St. Michael-Albertville Public Schools! Don’t miss out on this rare opportunity to live in a peaceful, close-knit community with all the space and amenities you’ve been looking for - schedule your visit today!

12. 2026-01-23
    listed $439,000 Active 1138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1138 chars)

    This is a To-Be-Built opportunity to build the brand new Hillcrest floorplan in the exciting new community of Oakview Ridge! Special builder incentive includes a FREE FINISHED WALKOUT BASEMENT! Choose which structural and design upgrades to add to the home and personalize every element in our Design Center! This exciting new two story Hillcrest home features: Four bedrooms on the upper level, including a private Primary suite with spacious bedroom and separate entries for the bathroom and walk-in closet; Upper level laundry room; Open concept main level Kitchen/Dining/Living Room; Centered electric fireplace in Living Room; Walk-in Pantry; Front door and Mudroom coat closets; Main level Powder Bath; Three-car garage with optional depth extension! No Community HOA! This amazing To-Be-Built opportunity is located near beautiful parks and scenery, popular eateries, and is located within the highly regarded St. Michael-Albertville Public Schools! Don’t miss out on this rare opportunity to live in a peaceful, close-knit community with all the space and amenities you’ve been looking for - schedule your visit today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,042
• − Property taxes: −$6,974
• − Insurance: −$2,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$13,524
• Taxable loss: −$28,704
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,889
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This is a brand-new, move-in-ready home with excellent condition and no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The property offers a great opportunity for both resale and rental due to its location and features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more buyers.
• Both Interior updates — Fresh paint and minor updates can enhance the home's appeal and value.
• Both Appliances — Upgrading appliances can make the home more attractive to buyers and renters.
• Both Smart home features — Adding smart home features can increase the home's value and attract tech-savvy buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Fresh paint and minor updates can enhance the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both Appliances — Upgrading appliances can make the home more attractive to buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Smart home features — Adding smart home features can increase the home's value and attract tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Michael-Albertville School District
• NCES district ID: 2733790
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $86,897
• Composite: 57.91/100
• National rank: #1042
• State rank: #17 of 301 in MN

Livability — Hanover

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #293
• US rank: #6387

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hanover, MN
• City population: 3,454
• Population (ZIP): 3,454

Population outlook (Wright County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 142,526 people
• By 2030: 146,915 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 153,625 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 155,416 · +9.0%
• By 2075: 150,352 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 130,631 · -8.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Romanian 5% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wright

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.4) · D 34.4% · R 63.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -29.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.4 2020: R+28.6 2016: R+33.2 2012: R+21.4 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.77%
• Current HPI: 234.7046
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+5.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $464,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Listed $439,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid