592 J M Mercer Campsite Rd · Leitchfield, KY 40145

$140,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,432 sqft · SingleFamily · 190 Days on market

Built 2004 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wanting to be close to Rough River with a community boat ramp? This is it! Enjoy peaceful living in this roomy 4-bedroom, 2-bath home set on a quarteracre lot. The inviting interior features an open floor plan with a large, eat-in kitchen that flows seamlessly into the living room—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. You'll also appreciate the spacious family room, ideal for gathering, relaxing, or creating a cozy entertainment space. Located in a quiet, country setting, this property offers the space and serenity you're looking for while still providing the convenience of single-level living. A wonderful opportunity for anyone seeking comfort, affordability, and room to spread out.

Key facts

• Community boat ramp
• Open floor plan
• Large eat-in kitchen

Tags

• COMMUNITY BOAT RAMP
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• QUIET COUNTRY SETTING
• SINGLE-LEVEL LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.24 acres; Lot features include easement and wooded area; Partial fencing
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: No parking listed
• Utilities: Electricity connected; One HVAC unit for heating and one for cooling
• Home design: Residential property; Other architectural style; Single-story (1 story); Entry level rooms on the first floor
• Construction: Built in 2004; Vinyl siding construction; Shingle roof; Concrete block foundation
• Exterior features: No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen located on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms, all on the first floor; Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, including a primary full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 8 total rooms; 5 closets; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.3% in Leitchfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#144 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Breckinridge County (rural): math 31% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #51 of 165 in KY (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Breckinridge County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Breckinridge County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $140k implies a 172% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.25%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.76% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $41,214
• Equity at exit: $77,309

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.96×
• Total profit: $115,969
• Equity at exit: $131,779

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40145

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,260 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $377/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,043

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 190 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 189 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 188 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 187 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 185 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $140,000 Active 184 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 181 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 180 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 179 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 178 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 175 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 174 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 173 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 172 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 171 DOM
16. 2025-12-11
    listed $140,000 Active 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Wanting to be close to Rough River with a community boat ramp? This is it! Enjoy peaceful living in this roomy 4-bedroom, 2-bath home set on a quarteracre lot. The inviting interior features an open floor plan with a large, eat-in kitchen that flows seamlessly into the living room—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. You'll also appreciate the spacious family room, ideal for gathering, relaxing, or creating a cozy entertainment space. Located in a quiet, country setting, this property offers the space and serenity you're looking for while still providing the convenience of single-level living. A wonderful opportunity for anyone seeking comfort, affordability, and room to spread out.

17. 2025-12-10
    listed $140,000 Active
18. 2018-05-15
    soldstatus $51,500
19. 2018-04-27
    soldstatus $51,500 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Near Rough River Lake. Community boat ramp. Breckenridge County Schools and taxes. Owner is a licensed Real Estate agent in the State of Kentucky.

20. 2017-08-15
    listed $49,900 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Near Rough River Lake. Community boat ramp. Breckenridge County Schools and taxes. Owner is a licensed Real Estate agent in the State of Kentucky.

21. 2008-05-06
    soldstatus $38,000
22. 2008-03-07
    listed $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $377 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,204 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$827/yr (+$69/mo · 219.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$377
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,210
• − Management: −$1,210
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$291
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$70
• After-tax cash flow: $2,127/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Breckinridge County
• NCES district ID: 2100720
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $42,042
• Composite: 31.2/100
• National rank: #6041
• State rank: #51 of 165 in KY

Livability — Leitchfield

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #144
• US rank: #6810

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 15,817
• Population (ZIP): 1,083

Population outlook (Breckinridge County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,487 people
• By 2030: 18,994 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 17,825 · -8.5%
• By 2050: 16,640 · -14.6%
• By 2075: 14,155 · -27.4%
• By 2100: 11,696 · -40.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · German/W. Germanic 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Breckinridge

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.3% · R 78.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+51.6 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+25.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.76%
• Current HPI: 215.0877
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+211.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-11 Listed $140,000 HKARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $140,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2018-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $51,500 Public Records
• 2018-04-27 Sold (MLS) $51,500 RASKMLS
• 2017-08-15 Listed $49,900 RASKMLS
• 2008-05-06 Sold (MLS) $38,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2008-03-07 Listed $45,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2017): $377 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.