14303 Kincheloe St · Hornsby Bend, TX 78725

$249,800

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,519 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1987 $164/sqft · 22% below area Est $320k · 22% under $32/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Appreciation +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable 3BR/2BA Home – Move-In Ready! Charming and budget-friendly 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in the quiet Austin’s Colony neighborhood. Priced aggressively! This home features waterproof flooring, a freshly painted interior, and a bright, open-concept layout. Enjoy a large fenced backyard—great for kids, pets, and weekend BBQs. Located just 15 minutes from Downtown Austin, close to schools and parks. Perfect for first-time buyers or investors – schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Close to parks
• Close to schools
• Waterproof flooring

Tags

• WATERPROOF FLOORING
• FENCED BACKYARD
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO PARKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-225 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,004 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Del Valle ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #749 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $250k implies a 247% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,471 (22.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.87%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $320,217
• List price: $249,800
• Delta: -21.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4700 Fallenash Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,691 (+11%)	3mo	$250,000	$148	72
4705 Fallenash Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,355 (-11%)	4mo	$191,999	$142	69
14505 Sandifer St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,513 (-0%)	4mo	$250,000	$165	66
15208 Walcott Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-1%)	5mo	$285,000	$189	62
14205 Highsmith St	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,442 (-5%)	6mo	$225,000	$156	57
15108 Walcott Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,617 (+6%)	3mo	$280,000	$173	56
3605 Pevetoe St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,511 (-0%)	8mo	$235,000	$156	54
3609 Mims Cv	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,467 (-3%)	8mo	$275,000	$187	54
801 Silver Wing Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,657 (+9%)	4mo	$299,900	$181	53
903 Yabers Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-4%)	8mo	$292,000	$201	51
14601 Fitzgibbon Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,662 (+9%)	9mo	$285,000	$171	39
4617 Inicio Ln	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,303 (-14%)	6mo	$245,000	$188	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-60,478
• Equity at exit: $37,246

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-92,960
• Equity at exit: $21,598

Cash invested: $69,944 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78725

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,945 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,310
• Tax from tax record: −$316 /mo · $3,787/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-225

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,230

Max offer price $209,995

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-84	-5% $-155	+0% $-225	+5% $-296	+10% $-367
Rent	-10% $-379	-5% $-302	+0% $-225	+5% $-149	+10% $-72
Rate	-1.0pp $-100	-0.5pp $-162	base $-225	+0.5pp $-290	+1.0pp $-356

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,450
• Closing costs: $7,494
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14011 FM 969 Rd Austin, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1074	$1,332	$1.24	3d	1	0.15mi
4723 Castleman Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,750	$1.25	5d	1	0.20mi
4723 Castleman Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,750	$1.25	4d	1	0.20mi
4206 Boatwright Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,850	$1.25	24d	1	0.20mi
4206 Boatwright Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,795	$1.21	13d	1	0.20mi
4300 Sojourner St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$1,750	$1.16	44d	1	0.21mi
14505 Highsmith St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,725	$1.41	24d	1	0.44mi
601 Silver Wing Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1996	$2,100	$1.05	44d	1	0.46mi
15105 Verela Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$2,295	$1.28	22d	1	0.54mi
15102 Walcott Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,695	$1.14	22d	1	0.54mi
15102 Walcott Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,695	$1.14	13d	1	0.54mi
15209 Parrish Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,800	$1.44	24d	1	0.56mi
15120 Arizona Oak Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,750	$1.32	5d	1	0.57mi
3504 Banda Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,650	$1.31	24d	1	0.57mi
3504 Banda Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,650	$1.31	4d	1	0.57mi
15215 Parrish Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,799	$1.25	44d	1	0.58mi
3514 Banda Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1338	$2,850	$2.13	44d	1	0.59mi
15218 Parrish Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,900	$1.58	44d	1	0.59mi
4613 Graceful Ln #500 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	44d	1	0.64mi
15001 Bigelow Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1771	$1,850	$1.04	5d	1	0.66mi
4603 Truth Way Austin, TX	2.0	2.5	1158	$1,750	$1.51	44d	1	0.68mi
14700 Menifee St Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	3d	1	0.76mi
4606 Kind Way #285 Austin, TX	2.0	1.0	1180	$1,750	$1.48	44d	1	0.81mi
3509 Conyers Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1795	$2,000	$1.11	24d	1	0.82mi
4621 Kind Way #271 Austin, TX	2.0	1.0	1192	$1,499	$1.26	5d	1	0.83mi
14909 Nuttall Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	1952	$2,050	$1.05	24d	1	0.83mi
3701 Canaan Mathew Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1837	$2,550	$1.39	44d	1	0.84mi
4514 Senda Ln Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	1293	$1,750	$1.35	5d	1	0.86mi
3415 Crownover St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1203	$1,725	$1.43	44d	1	0.87mi
3407 Barksdale Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2093	$1,995	$0.95	22d	1	0.87mi
3407 Barksdale Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2093	$1,995	$0.95	24d	1	0.87mi
3403 Caleb Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,800	$1.07	44d	1	0.88mi
4505 Senda Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,675	$1.52	5d	1	0.88mi
15305 Mimebark Way Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2074	$1,800	$0.87	18d	1	0.88mi
3603 Canaan Mathew Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1778	$1,875	$1.05	44d	1	0.89mi
3400 Barksdale Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,750	$1.27	5d	1	0.89mi
14908 Ben Davis Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	2029	$1,995	$0.98	17d	1	0.91mi
4528 Credo Ln Austin, TX	2.0	2.5	1294	$1,775	$1.37	17d	1	0.91mi
5813 Wideleaf Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,700	$1.28	45d	1	0.97mi
5708 Berriweather Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,100	$1.00	4d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,800 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   status $249,800 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 505-char remark

   Show marketing remark (505 chars)

   Affordable 3BR/2BA Home – Move-In Ready! Charming and budget-friendly 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in the quiet Austin’s Colony neighborhood. Priced aggressively! This home features waterproof flooring, a freshly painted interior, and a bright, open-concept layout. Enjoy a large fenced backyard—great for kids, pets, and weekend BBQs. Located just 15 minutes from Downtown Austin, close to schools and parks. Perfect for first-time buyers or investors – schedule your showing today!

4. 2026-03-17
   price $249,800 505-char remark

   Show marketing remark (505 chars)

   Affordable 3BR/2BA Home – Move-In Ready! Charming and budget-friendly 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in the quiet Austin’s Colony neighborhood. Priced aggressively! This home features waterproof flooring, a freshly painted interior, and a bright, open-concept layout. Enjoy a large fenced backyard—great for kids, pets, and weekend BBQs. Located just 15 minutes from Downtown Austin, close to schools and parks. Perfect for first-time buyers or investors – schedule your showing today!

5. 2026-02-20
   price $253,000 505-char remark

   Show marketing remark (505 chars)

   Affordable 3BR/2BA Home – Move-In Ready! Charming and budget-friendly 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in the quiet Austin’s Colony neighborhood. Priced aggressively! This home features waterproof flooring, a freshly painted interior, and a bright, open-concept layout. Enjoy a large fenced backyard—great for kids, pets, and weekend BBQs. Located just 15 minutes from Downtown Austin, close to schools and parks. Perfect for first-time buyers or investors – schedule your showing today!

6. 2026-02-05
   listed $258,000 Active 505-char remark

   Show marketing remark (505 chars)

   Affordable 3BR/2BA Home – Move-In Ready! Charming and budget-friendly 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in the quiet Austin’s Colony neighborhood. Priced aggressively! This home features waterproof flooring, a freshly painted interior, and a bright, open-concept layout. Enjoy a large fenced backyard—great for kids, pets, and weekend BBQs. Located just 15 minutes from Downtown Austin, close to schools and parks. Perfect for first-time buyers or investors – schedule your showing today!

7. 2026-01-16
   status Active
8. 2025-10-31
   price
9. 2025-10-31
   listed Active
10. 2025-08-16
    price
11. 2025-07-29
    price
12. 2025-07-24
    listed Active
13. 2023-02-23
    soldstatus
14. 2007-06-28
    soldstatus
15. 2007-05-31
    historical
16. 2007-05-04
    listed $94,000
17. 2005-12-15
    soldstatus
18. 2005-12-13
    soldstatus
19. 2005-11-27
    historical
20. 2005-11-11
    listed $102,000
21. 2003-12-19
    historical
22. 2003-10-15
    listed
23. 1991-05-31
    soldstatus $71,984
24. 1987-09-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,787 · $316/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,571 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$784/yr (+$65/mo · 20.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,337
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,993
• − Property taxes: −$3,787
• − Insurance: −$1,249
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,867
• − Management: −$1,867
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$7,267
• Taxable loss: −$7,077
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,698
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,005/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Del Valle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816620
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,322
• Composite: 19.13/100
• National rank: #8830
• State rank: #749 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hornsby Bend

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1004
• US rank: #17815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hornsby Bend, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 10,810
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,746
• Household income: $105,795
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 221.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 33% Two or more races 22% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.74%
• Current HPI: 265.2823
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.45%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+247.0% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $249,800 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $253,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $258,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-16 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-31 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-08-16 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-07-24 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2023-02-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-06-28 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2007-05-31 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2007-05-04 Listed $94,000 Unlock MLS
• 2005-12-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-12-13 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2005-11-27 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2005-11-11 Listed $102,000 Unlock MLS
• 2003-12-19 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2003-10-15 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 1991-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $71,984 Public Records
• 1987-09-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,787 · -7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.