1938 Barnsley Ln · Houston, TX 77088

$140,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,013 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1973 6,137 sqft lot Est $169k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity to own an affordable 3 bedroom home in Houston!! This well maintained property offers a functional floor plan, updated flooring in most rooms, neutral paint, and a spacious living area. The home is move in ready with central AC and a one car garage. Large backyard provides plenty of room for outdoor enjoyment, gardening , or entertaining. Conveniently located with easy access to major highways, shopping. Priced to sell

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• Large backyard
• Updated flooring

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• UPDATED FLOORING
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• LARGE BACKYARD
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Built in 1973; Brick and wood siding exterior; Shingle and wood roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete road frontage; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (first floor)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor); Two additional bedrooms (first floor)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling (Central Air)
• Interior features: Living room; Total of 7 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $473 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Garcia Middle (math 18% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 1,054 students, 90% FRL); Eisenhower H S (math 16% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,424 of 1,632 statewide, top 88%, 2,855 students, 83% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 468 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.47%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $169,171
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1902 Bunzel St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,030 (+2%)	0mo	$198,000	$192	83
8839 Glenhouse Dr	0.43mi	3/1.5	935 (-8%)	1mo	$129,000	$138	67
8811 Cottage Gate Ln	0.51mi	3/1.5	989 (-2%)	11mo	$208,000	$210	63
1710 Beaver Bend Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,134 (+12%)	2mo	$223,000	$197	62
1939 Mosher Ln	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	885 (-13%)	10mo	$130,000	$147	59
2007 Beaver Bend Rd	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,074 (+6%)	22mo	$171,900	$160	58
9018 Rutherford Ln	0.49mi	3/1.5	934 (-8%)	8mo	$165,000	$177	58
1811 W Gulf Bank Rd	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,021 (+1%)	15mo	$170,000	$167	57
1407 Rainy River Dr	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,120 (+11%)	22mo	$179,999	$161	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,855
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $18,902
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77088

• Home prices YoY: -23.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 468
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,924 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$255 /mo · $3,061/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $473

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,326

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $552	-5% $512	+0% $473	+5% $433	+10% $393
Rent	-10% $321	-5% $397	+0% $473	+5% $549	+10% $625
Rate	-1.0pp $543	-0.5pp $508	base $473	+0.5pp $436	+1.0pp $399

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1438 Peach Spring Dr Houston, TX	4.0	1.5	1288	$1,599	$1.24	2d	1	0.66mi
1330 Blue Bell Rd Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1418	$1,790	$1.26	2d	6	0.79mi
1450 Dewalt St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1371	$2,500	$1.82	44d	1	0.90mi
9750 Deer Trail Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,200	$2.10	44d	1	1.01mi
9750 Deer Trail Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	25d	1	1.01mi
2320 Wavell St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,900	$1.65	44d	1	1.08mi
2320 Wavell St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,683	$1.46	44d	1	1.08mi
1464 Ferguson Way Houston, TX	2.0	3.0	850	$1,850	$2.18	44d	1	1.15mi
2722 Stallings Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,635	$1.26	5d	1	1.30mi
2407 Ferguson Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1195	$1,650	$1.38	44d	1	1.42mi
2850 W Gulf Bank Rd Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1055	$1,413	$1.34	2d	107	1.43mi
929 Marjorie St Unit 1060806P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$3,091	$2.87	8d	1	1.46mi
8312 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	21d	1	1.48mi
8312 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	21d	1	1.48mi
8310 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $140,000 Active
3. 1991-07-28
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,061 · $255/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,061 · $255/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,091
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$3,061
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,847
• − Management: −$1,847
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $3,721
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$893
• After-tax cash flow: $4,779/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 57,047
• Household income: $54,411
• Rent vs Own: 38.1% rent · 61.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2294.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% Black 37% Two or more races 18% White 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 47% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.37%
• Current HPI: 325.0499
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $140,000 HARMLS
• 1991-07-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,061 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.