1201 Hull Valley Dr · Waynesville, MO 65583

$155,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,782 sqft · Other public records · 143 Days on market

Built 1968 0.29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in a family friendly neighborhood, in walking distance to the Waynesville Middle School, and just minutes away from Fort Leonard Wood! This Spacious and welcoming 3 Bedroom 1 1/2 Bath home comes equipped with a large kitchen, two separate Living areas, and a finished basement. Plenty of space with a 2 Car garage, and a fenced in back yard! Priced to sell!! Call for a showing today.

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1968

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-284 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $105k (32.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (32.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.0% in Waynesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#322 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Waynesville R-VI (town): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #41 of 324 in MO (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.3%/yr); 156 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 62 units permitted in Pulaski County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,912 (32.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.89%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-35,438
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-19,010
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65583

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Rents YoY: 10.3%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,421 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $819/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $-284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,780

Max offer price $104,912

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20380 Spice Dr Ste D Waynesville, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1140	$1,495	$1.31	43d	9	0.63mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2025-12-17
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-29
   status Active
3. 2025-11-14
   status Pending
4. 2025-10-21
   price $155,000
5. 2025-10-07
   price $165,000
6. 2025-09-12
   price $175,000
7. 2025-09-05
   status Active
8. 2025-08-08
   historical Active Under Contract
9. 2025-07-12
   listed $185,000 Active
10. 2025-07-11
    historical $185,000
11. 2022-04-05
    soldstatus
12. 2022-04-01
    soldstatus Closed 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Located in a family friendly neighborhood, in walking distance to the Waynesville Middle School, and just minutes away from Fort Leonard Wood! This Spacious and welcoming 3 Bedroom 1 1/2 Bath home comes equipped with a large kitchen, two separate Living areas, and a finished basement. Plenty of space with a 2 Car garage, and a fenced in back yard! Priced to sell!! Call for a showing today.

13. 2022-02-11
    status Pending 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Located in a family friendly neighborhood, in walking distance to the Waynesville Middle School, and just minutes away from Fort Leonard Wood! This Spacious and welcoming 3 Bedroom 1 1/2 Bath home comes equipped with a large kitchen, two separate Living areas, and a finished basement. Plenty of space with a 2 Car garage, and a fenced in back yard! Priced to sell!! Call for a showing today.

14. 2022-01-18
    listed $124,900 Active 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Located in a family friendly neighborhood, in walking distance to the Waynesville Middle School, and just minutes away from Fort Leonard Wood! This Spacious and welcoming 3 Bedroom 1 1/2 Bath home comes equipped with a large kitchen, two separate Living areas, and a finished basement. Plenty of space with a 2 Car garage, and a fenced in back yard! Priced to sell!! Call for a showing today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $819 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,504 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$684/yr (+$57/mo · 83.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$819
• − Insurance: −$6,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,364
• − Management: −$1,364
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$5,987
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,437
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,965/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waynesville R-VI
• NCES district ID: 2931440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,147
• Composite: 42.36/100
• National rank: #3246
• State rank: #41 of 324 in MO

Livability — Waynesville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #322
• US rank: #14679

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waynesville, MO
• County: Pulaski County · 25,264 people
• City population: 14,711
• Metro: Fort Leonard Wood, MO
• Population (ZIP): 14,711
• Household income: $76,626
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 185.0

Population outlook (Pulaski County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,214 people
• By 2030: 54,723 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 54,885 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 55,467 · +2.3%
• By 2075: 58,576 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 61,179 · +12.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 12% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pulaski

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.3) · D 24.2% · R 74.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -28.7pp · 2024: -50.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.3 2020: R+45.7 2016: R+51.7 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+28.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.32%
• Current HPI: 155.2931
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.27%
• Metro: Fort Leonard Wood, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+24.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-17 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-29 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-14 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $155,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $165,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $175,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-05 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-08 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-12 Listed $185,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-11 Coming Soon $185,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-04-01 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-11 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-18 Listed $124,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $819 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.