950 W Rubcom Rd · Bonadelle Ranchos, CA 93636

$403,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,847 sqft · SingleFamily · 184 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $218/sqft · 37% below area Est $639k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home is ready for modern lifestyles. An inviting open-concept layout makes up the first floor, blending the kitchen, living and dining areas for seamless transitions and everyday multitasking. All four bedrooms are located on the second level, including a luxe owner's suite featuring a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Luxe owner's suite
• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LUXE OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $403k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-501 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $331k (18.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $289k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.9% in Bonadelle Ranchos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Golden Valley Unified (town): math 38% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #151 of 517 in CA (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 420 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,346 units permitted in Madera County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madera County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($355k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $289,134 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.33%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $639,158
• List price: $403,000
• Delta: -36.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16065 Road 37	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,634 (-12%)	9mo	$470,000	$288	66
16363 Paula Rd	0.38mi	4/2.0	2,025 (+10%)	0mo	$579,000	$286	64
16253 Anaconda Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (-3%)	13mo	$500,000	$279	62
16026 Karen Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,908 (+3%)	2mo	$597,000	$313	58
16564 Karen Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,943 (+5%)	2mo	$502,000	$258	48
16291 Anaconda Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,060 (+12%)	19mo	$635,000	$308	42
36861 Kenneth Ave	0.39mi	4/2.0	2,120 (+15%)	23mo	$680,000	$321	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-97,161
• Equity at exit: $60,089

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-125,507
• Equity at exit: $34,844

Cash invested: $112,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93636

• Active inventory: 420
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,891 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,113
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$504 /mo · $6,045/yr
• Insurance: −$168
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$607
• Net cashflow: $-501

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,525

Max offer price $330,521

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-222	-5% $-362	+0% $-501	+5% $-640	+10% $-779
Rent	-10% $-729	-5% $-615	+0% $-501	+5% $-387	+10% $-272
Rate	-1.0pp $-298	-0.5pp $-398	base $-501	+0.5pp $-605	+1.0pp $-712

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,750
• Closing costs: $12,090
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17076 Paula Rd Madera, CA	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,550	$1.40	4d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $403,000 Active 184 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $403,000 Active 183 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $403,000 Active 182 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $403,000 Active 181 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $403,000 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $403,000 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $403,000 Active 176 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $403,000 Active 175 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $403,000 Active 174 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $403,000 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $403,000 Active 170 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $403,000 Active 169 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $403,000 Active 168 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $403,000 Active 167 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $403,000 Active 166 DOM
16. 2025-12-16
    listed $403,000 Active 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    This new two-story home is ready for modern lifestyles. An inviting open-concept layout makes up the first floor, blending the kitchen, living and dining areas for seamless transitions and everyday multitasking. All four bedrooms are located on the second level, including a luxe owner's suite featuring a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 42 unhealthy d/yr today · 47 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,574
• − Property taxes: −$6,045
• − Insurance: −$2,015
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,776
• − Management: −$2,776
• − Depreciation: −$11,724
• Taxable loss: −$13,213
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,171
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,839/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern two-story home is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal maintenance needs. It offers a great opportunity for investors looking to enhance curb appeal and increase its value through smart home integration and energy-efficient updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both smart home integration — increases convenience and marketability
• Both smart thermostat — improves energy efficiency and comfort

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both smart home integration — increases convenience and marketability ↑
• Both smart thermostat — improves energy efficiency and comfort ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Golden Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600068
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $74,067
• Composite: 42.12/100
• National rank: #3313
• State rank: #151 of 517 in CA

Livability — Bonadelle Ranchos

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bonadelle Ranchos, CA
• County: Madera County · 133,170 people
• City population: 14,777
• Metro: Madera, CA
• Population (ZIP): 15,294
• Household income: $133,274
• Rent vs Own: 8.2% rent · 91.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 66.0

Population outlook (Madera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 157,915 people
• By 2030: 159,604 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 163,454 · +3.5%
• By 2050: 167,071 · +5.8%
• By 2075: 171,182 · +8.4%
• By 2100: 162,781 · +3.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 20% Native American 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Russian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madera

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.4% · R 59.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+17.3 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -345.88%
• Current HPI: 303.0675
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Madera, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-16 Listed $403,000 Zillow