16895 Silver Dr S · Buckhorn, CA 95666

$240,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,744 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 275 Days on market

Built 1981 1.00 ac lot $138/sqft · 183% above area ↓ 44% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This great all original 1981 home is packed full of charm and storage. Well cared for and ready for an update, this 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home tucked away in the woods has a spacious open floor plan. A large laundry room has been sectioned off to make an office or storage space but could easily be converted back. The house is currently set up to run on Electric but has gas hook-ups if the buyer wants to set up a propane tank. HVAC system existing but not hooked up, ducting needs to be replaced. House is priced according to current original condition. Pest inspection has been completed. Plumbing functions great! Needs paint, carpet and light cosmetic repairs inside and outside.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1981

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.7% in Buckhorn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#803 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Amador County Unified (town): math 23% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #330 of 517 in CA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 66 units permitted in Amador County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Amador County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 275 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $240k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,645 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 275 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.28%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $84,728
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: 183.26%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16931 Silver Drive South	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,784 (+2%)	9mo	$250,000	$140	85
16915 S Silver Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,612 (-8%)	4mo	$375,000	$233	83
16931 Alpine Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,724 (-1%)	9mo	$322,500	$187	82
27076 Silver Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,932 (+11%)	1mo	$275,000	$142	77
27197 Barton Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,867 (+7%)	2mo	$350,000	$187	76
27390 Barton	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,826 (+5%)	0mo	$400,000	$219	73
16878 Broken Oak Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,641 (-6%)	9mo	$330,000	$201	71
26890 Silver Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,561 (-10%)	1mo	$299,000	$192	70
16689 Silver Pine Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,637 (-6%)	4mo	$380,000	$232	68
26357 Golf View Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,616 (-7%)	7mo	$419,500	$260	51
26321 Golf Links Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,592 (-9%)	3mo	$400,000	$251	50
16548 Alpine Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,573 (-10%)	8mo	$374,900	$238	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-30,865
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-16,857
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95666

• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,966 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $805/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,805

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26232 Parkwood Dr E Pioneer, CA	3.0	2.0	1671	$1,950	$1.17	43d	1	0.80mi
26459 Sugar Pine Dr Pioneer, CA	4.0	3.0	1800	$1,995	$1.11	43d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2012-07-03
   historical
2. 2012-03-27
   listed $68,000
3. 2002-07-11
   soldstatus $125,500
4. 2001-07-31
   soldstatus $122,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $805 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,824 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,019/yr (+$85/mo · 126.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$805
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,888
• − Management: −$1,888
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$2,609
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$626
• After-tax cash flow: $2,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amador County Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602450
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,428
• Composite: 26.67/100
• National rank: #7163
• State rank: #330 of 517 in CA

Livability — Buckhorn

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #803
• US rank: #22794

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buckhorn, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,089

Population outlook (Amador County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,295 people
• By 2030: 34,147 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 31,618 · -10.4%
• By 2050: 29,913 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 27,308 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 23,465 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Scottish 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Amador

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.8) · D 34.7% · R 62.6% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -14.6pp · 2024: -27.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.8 2020: R+24.4 2016: R+25.2 2012: R+19.0 2008: R+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.84%
• Current HPI: 143.0962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-44.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2012-07-03 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2012-03-27 Listed $68,000 CRMLS
• 2002-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $125,500 Public Records
• 2001-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $122,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $805 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.