14206 Granger Pointe Ln · Grangerland, TX 77302

$202,940

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,426 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jun 2026! Prepare dinner in the Mesa Verde's kitchen with an open concept layout. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and white backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet. Zoned to Conroe ISD, Granger Pointe offers the charming town feel with premier access to the endless shopping, dining and entertainment that Conroe has to offer. Enjoy the local convenience and innovative energy-efficient homes that help lower utility bills. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: VanMor Properties Inc.; Association fee $500 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Additional parking; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Built by Meritage Homes (2026); Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Covered porch; Deck; Patio; Porch; Private yard; Fully fenced backyard; Sprinkler/irrigation; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank flooring; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central air (electric); Attic fan
• Interior features: Double vanity; Granite counters; Quartz counters; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Soaking tub; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Storm windows; Ventilation (improved indoor air quality)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $202,940 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $233,186.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $203k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $203k).
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 34% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,940

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.56%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,186
• List price: $202,940
• Delta: -12.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14170 Granger Pointe Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,426 (0%)	0mo	$227,940	$160	97
14162 Granger Pointe Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,426 (0%)	0mo	$214,590	$150	96
14304 Grey Pointe	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,426 (0%)	2mo	$221,590	$155	93
14312 Grey Pointe Ct	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+1%)	2mo	$236,940	$165	92
14301 Grey Pointe Ct	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+1%)	3mo	$229,940	$160	91
14166 Granger Pointe Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,557 (+9%)	2mo	$260,040	$167	75
14158 Granger Pointe Ln	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,557 (+9%)	2mo	$254,040	$163	75
16785 Lonely Pines Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,410 (-1%)	3mo	$184,900	$131	72
14409 Sugar Pines Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,390 (-2%)	3mo	$200,000	$144	66
16916 Rich Pines Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+10%)	2mo	$202,995	$129	63
15427 Woody Haven Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,516 (+6%)	1mo	$249,990	$165	60
17104 Coulter Pine Ct	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,583 (+11%)	2mo	$234,600	$148	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-31,666
• Equity at exit: $34,769

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-17,637
• Equity at exit: $20,162

Cash invested: $65,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,223
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$291 /mo · $3,498/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,093

Max offer price $233,186

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,296
• Closing costs: $6,996
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$1,900	$1.14	1d	13	0.68mi
17892 Brown Rd Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,300	$0.87	20d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-13
   remarks 659-char remark
2. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on marketlisting id $202,940 Pending 1 DOM
3. 2026-05-02
   price $201,940 186-char remark
4. 2026-04-29
   status Active 186-char remark
5. 2026-04-29
   price $233,940 186-char remark
6. 2026-04-24
   historical 186-char remark
7. 2026-04-22
   listed $248,940 Active 186-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,403
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,062
• − Property taxes: −$3,498
• − Insurance: −$1,166
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$6,784
• Taxable loss: −$2,835
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$680
• After-tax cash flow: $1,697/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and minimal repairs needed. The highest-ROI updates to increase its value include painting the exterior siding, replacing light fixtures, and installing smart home devices.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace light fixtures — Improves aesthetics and energy efficiency
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Improves aesthetics and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-10 Listed $202,940 HARMLS