Pinehollow Plan · New Braunfels, TX 78130

$231,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 425 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• THREE SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $231,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan named Pinehollow; Single-family plan home
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,600; Built as a new construction plan
• Exterior features: Located at 4015 Eldorado Oomhyf, New Braunfels TX

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes standard kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living space (plan home)

🏗️ New construction. The $231,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $230,400.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $232k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-532/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.4% in New Braunfels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1932 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 425 days — a 12% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,941 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 425 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.82%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $230,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
298 Tahoe Ave	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,600 (0%)	3mo	$221,999	$139	85
301 Tahoe Ave	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,600 (0%)	2mo	$211,459	$132	85
3915 El Dorado	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,575 (-2%)	3mo	$265,999	$169	80
109 Radnor Rd	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,736 (+8%)	2mo	$409,990	$236	72
249 Inyo St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,657 (+4%)	1mo	$234,999	$142	71
269 Inyo St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,657 (+4%)	1mo	$237,999	$144	70
281 Inyo St	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (-6%)	1mo	$235,999	$156	66
4048 Shaw Tree	0.17mi	4/3.0	1,802 (+13%)	3mo	$249,999	$139	65
4004 Shaw Tree	0.24mi	4/3.0	1,795 (+12%)	1mo	$302,999	$169	63
237 Inyo St	0.36mi	4/3.0	1,795 (+12%)	0mo	$251,999	$140	59
233 Inyo St	0.36mi	4/3.0	1,802 (+13%)	2mo	$249,999	$139	57
115 Trifle Trl	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,392 (-13%)	1mo	$299,990	$216	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-45,869
• Equity at exit: $34,353

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-65,648
• Equity at exit: $19,921

Cash invested: $64,512 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78130

• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 1932
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,959 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,208
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$288 /mo · $3,456/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $-44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,015

Max offer price $223,988

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $115	-5% $35	+0% $-44	+5% $-124	+10% $-204
Rent	-10% $-199	-5% $-122	+0% $-44	+5% $33	+10% $110
Rate	-1.0pp $72	-0.5pp $14	base $-44	+0.5pp $-104	+1.0pp $-165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,600
• Closing costs: $6,912
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
298 Tahoe Ave New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,595	$1.00	45d	1	0.23mi
301 Tahoe Ave New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	45d	1	0.26mi
116 Radnor Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,450	$1.34	45d	1	0.32mi
131 Trifle Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1194	$1,863	$1.56	16d	1	0.37mi
5430 Addante St New Braunfels, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	981	$2,299	$2.34	3d	183	0.93mi
3629 Blue Cloud Dr New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1877	$2,295	$1.22	16d	1	0.94mi
378 Tanager Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1719	$1,825	$1.06	45d	1	1.27mi
138 Woodpecker Run New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1936	$1,725	$0.89	25d	1	1.28mi
505 Starling Crk New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1602	$1,900	$1.19	25d	1	1.41mi
635 NW Crossing Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,650	$1.12	5d	1	1.41mi
620 Northgap Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,500	$1.19	45d	1	1.42mi
3235 Blue Jay Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,725	$1.35	4d	1	1.45mi
373 Starling Crk New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1794	$1,950	$1.09	45d	1	1.47mi
3215 Northwest Blvd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1574	$1,625	$1.03	5d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $231,999 Active 425 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $231,999 Active 422 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $231,999 Active 421 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $231,999 Active 420 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $231,999 Active 419 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $231,999 Active 417 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $231,999 Active 413 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $231,999 Active 412 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $231,999 Active 411 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $231,999 Active 408 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $231,999 Active 407 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $231,999 Active 406 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $231,999 Active 405 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $231,999 Active 404 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,513
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,906
• − Property taxes: −$3,456
• − Insurance: −$1,152
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,881
• − Management: −$1,881
• − Depreciation: −$6,703
• Taxable loss: −$4,466
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,072
• After-tax cash flow: $540/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 144,962
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 104,009
• Household income: $83,064
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2912.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.61%
• Current HPI: 173.7128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.97%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B