125 Big Bend Dr · Sunrise Shores, TX 75758

$25,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 732 sqft · Manufactured public records · 310 Days on market

Built 1976 5,087 sqft lot $36/sqft · 59% below area $7/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FIXER UPPER! Welcome to this cozy one-bedroom, one-bath single-story home nestled in a serene wooded area, offering tranquility and privacy. With 732 square feet of space and sitting on a 5,089 square foot lot, this property provides a peaceful retreat surrounded by nature. While in need of work, this home presents an opportunity to create your own secluded haven away from the hustle and bustle of city life. Embrace the potential of this charming abode to be transformed into your ideal retreat with a little TLC and vision. This located is down the road from Big Eddy Bay and all of the surrounding recreational areas. It is being sold AS IS, but has potential. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property.

Key facts

• 5,087 sq ft lot
• Built 1976
• Listed 309 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $26k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $773 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $26k).
• Recommended offer: $23k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 42.0% vs local median 4.1% in Sunrise Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brownsboro ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #290 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 225 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $180 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $780 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 310 days — a 12% lower offer ($23k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $22,879 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 310 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 41.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 127.35%
• DSCR: 6.67
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $63,881
• List price: $25,999
• Delta: -59.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.18×
• Total profit: $44,998
• Equity at exit: $3,877

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.09×
• Total profit: $102,565
• Equity at exit: $2,248

Cash invested: $7,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75758

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,180 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$136
• Tax from tax record: −$5 /mo · $64/yr
• Insurance: −$11
• HOA: −$7
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $773

Break-even live

Break-even rent $202

Max offer price $25,999

Occupancy floor 30%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $787	-5% $780	+0% $773	+5% $765	+10% $758
Rent	-10% $679	-5% $726	+0% $773	+5% $819	+10% $866
Rate	-1.0pp $786	-0.5pp $779	base $773	+0.5pp $766	+1.0pp $759

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,500
• Closing costs: $780
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $7 · $84/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $25,999 Active 310 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $25,999 Active 309 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $25,999 Active 308 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $25,999 Active 307 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $25,999 Active 306 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $25,999 Active 304 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $25,999 Active 303 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $25,999 Active 301 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $25,999 Active 300 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $25,999 Active 299 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $25,999 Active 298 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $25,999 Active 293 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $25,999 Active 292 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,999 Active 291 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $25,999 Active 290 DOM
16. 2026-03-25
    price $25,999 895-char remark

    Show marketing remark (895 chars)

    FIXER UPPER! Welcome to this cozy one-bedroom, one-bath single-story home nestled in a serene wooded area, offering tranquility and privacy. With 732 square feet of space and sitting on a 5,089 square foot lot, this property provides a peaceful retreat surrounded by nature. While in need of work, this home presents an opportunity to create your own secluded haven away from the hustle and bustle of city life. Embrace the potential of this charming abode to be transformed into your ideal retreat with a little TLC and vision. This located is down the road from Big Eddy Bay and all of the surrounding recreational areas. It is being sold AS IS, but has potential. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property.

17. 2025-08-13
    listed $33,949 Active 895-char remark

    Show marketing remark (895 chars)

    FIXER UPPER! Welcome to this cozy one-bedroom, one-bath single-story home nestled in a serene wooded area, offering tranquility and privacy. With 732 square feet of space and sitting on a 5,089 square foot lot, this property provides a peaceful retreat surrounded by nature. While in need of work, this home presents an opportunity to create your own secluded haven away from the hustle and bustle of city life. Embrace the potential of this charming abode to be transformed into your ideal retreat with a little TLC and vision. This located is down the road from Big Eddy Bay and all of the surrounding recreational areas. It is being sold AS IS, but has potential. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property.

18. 1994-05-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $64 · $5/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $476 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$412/yr (+$34/mo · 641.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,456
• − Property taxes: −$64
• − Insurance: −$130
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,133
• − Management: −$1,133
• − HOA: −$84
• − Depreciation: −$756
• Taxable income: $9,402
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,257
• After-tax cash flow: $7,014/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811640
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,624
• Composite: 37.38/100
• National rank: #4429
• State rank: #290 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sunrise Shores

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,357

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.16%
• Current HPI: 192.0837
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $25,999 HARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Listed $33,949 HARMLS
• 1994-05-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $64 · -34.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.