Franklin Plan · Conroe, TX 77303

$277,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,892 sqft · SingleFamily · 409 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Franklin/T30F plan is one of our two-story homes featured in Silverthorne, located in Conroe, TX. This new home layout offers two classic front exteriors, five bedrooms, two-and-a-half bathrooms, a two-car garage and 1892 square feet of comfortable living. Step inside The Franklin to find an elongated foyer opening to an open concept living room, kitchen, and dining area. The gourmet kitchen faces the living area, so you don't miss a thing while cooking or hosting. The kitchen includes quartz counter tops, stainless-steel appliances and shaker style cabinetry. The main bedroom is located toward the front of the home on the second story and features an attractive attached bathroom with a walk-in shower, quartz countertops, a grand walk-in closet and plenty of storage space. The second story includes all secondary bedrooms, and two full bathrooms. You'll have carpeted floors in every bedroom and sheet vinyl flooring in your bathrooms and utility room. Additional features include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device. Contact us today and find your home in Silverthorne by clicking the text with us button or the request information button.

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Walk-in shower
• Grand walk-in closet

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SHAKER STYLE CABINETRY
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• GRAND WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $277,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $310,494.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $278k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-387 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Patterson El (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 977 students, 74% FRL); Bozman Int (math 44% / reading 40%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 988 students, 68% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 34% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 409 days — a 12% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $222,573 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 409 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.35%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $310,494
• List price: $277,990
• Delta: -10.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4520 Nevada Falls Dr	0.20mi	5/2.0	1,882 (-0%)	1mo	$274,990	$146	87
4532 Nevada Falls Dr	0.23mi	5/2.0	1,882 (-0%)	1mo	$274,990	$146	86
4408 Ledge Ct	0.08mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,796 (-5%)	1mo	$319,990	$178	80
4241 Multnomah Falls Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,832 (-3%)	2mo	$304,990	$166	77
772 Kirby Lake Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,796 (-5%)	1mo	$304,990	$170	77
4325 Wallace Falls Ln	0.14mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,796 (-5%)	3mo	$299,990	$167	76
4226 Multnomah Falls Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,035 (+8%)	2mo	$309,990	$152	72
4323 Multnomah Falls Ct	0.32mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,831 (-3%)	3mo	$309,990	$169	70
4529 Iguaza Falls Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,867 (-1%)	2mo	$354,990	$190	69
4524 Nevada Falls Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,655 (-12%)	1mo	$269,990	$163	62
4229 Multnomah Falls Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,170 (+15%)	1mo	$336,990	$155	61
4514 Iguaza Falls Dr	0.39mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,060 (+9%)	1mo	$387,990	$188	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-81,478
• Equity at exit: $46,296

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-127,794
• Equity at exit: $26,846

Cash invested: $86,938 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,226 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,628
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$388 /mo · $4,657/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,716

Max offer price $254,433

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-173	-5% $-280	+0% $-387	+5% $-495	+10% $-602
Rent	-10% $-563	-5% $-475	+0% $-387	+5% $-300	+10% $-212
Rate	-1.0pp $-231	-0.5pp $-308	base $-387	+0.5pp $-468	+1.0pp $-550

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,623
• Closing costs: $9,315
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10005 Sterling Place Dr Conroe, TX	5.0	2.5	2305	$2,250	$0.98	3d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $277,990 Active 409 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $277,990 Active 406 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $277,990 Active 405 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $277,990 Active 404 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $277,990 Active 403 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $277,990 Active 401 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $277,990 Active 397 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $277,990 Active 396 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $277,990 Active 395 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $277,990 Active 392 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $277,990 Active 391 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $277,990 Active 390 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $277,990 Active 389 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $277,990 Active 388 DOM
15. 2025-05-09
    price $277,990 1401-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1401 chars)

    The Franklin/T30F plan is one of our two-story homes featured in Silverthorne, located in Conroe, TX. This new home layout offers two classic front exteriors, five bedrooms, two-and-a-half bathrooms, a two-car garage and 1892 square feet of comfortable living. Step inside The Franklin to find an elongated foyer opening to an open concept living room, kitchen, and dining area. The gourmet kitchen faces the living area, so you don't miss a thing while cooking or hosting. The kitchen includes quartz counter tops, stainless-steel appliances and shaker style cabinetry. The main bedroom is located toward the front of the home on the second story and features an attractive attached bathroom with a walk-in shower, quartz countertops, a grand walk-in closet and plenty of storage space. The second story includes all secondary bedrooms, and two full bathrooms. You'll have carpeted floors in every bedroom and sheet vinyl flooring in your bathrooms and utility room. Additional features include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device. Contact us today and find your home in Silverthorne by clicking the text with us button or the request information button.

16. 2025-05-08
    listed $272,990 Active 1401-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1401 chars)

    The Franklin/T30F plan is one of our two-story homes featured in Silverthorne, located in Conroe, TX. This new home layout offers two classic front exteriors, five bedrooms, two-and-a-half bathrooms, a two-car garage and 1892 square feet of comfortable living. Step inside The Franklin to find an elongated foyer opening to an open concept living room, kitchen, and dining area. The gourmet kitchen faces the living area, so you don't miss a thing while cooking or hosting. The kitchen includes quartz counter tops, stainless-steel appliances and shaker style cabinetry. The main bedroom is located toward the front of the home on the second story and features an attractive attached bathroom with a walk-in shower, quartz countertops, a grand walk-in closet and plenty of storage space. The second story includes all secondary bedrooms, and two full bathrooms. You'll have carpeted floors in every bedroom and sheet vinyl flooring in your bathrooms and utility room. Additional features include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device. Contact us today and find your home in Silverthorne by clicking the text with us button or the request information button.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,709
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,392
• − Property taxes: −$4,657
• − Insurance: −$1,552
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,137
• − Management: −$2,137
• − Depreciation: −$9,033
• Taxable loss: −$10,200
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,448
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-09 Price Changed $277,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-08 Listed $272,990 Zillow