436 Paris St · San Marcos, TX 78656

$222,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,667 sqft · Land · 57 Days on market

Built 2026 5,401 sqft lot $134/sqft · at area comps Est $213k · at est. $45/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +5.4/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Ramsey - This new single-story home boasts a low-maintenance design ideal for modern lifestyles. An open-concept layout combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to encourage seamless transitions and multitasking. Three bedrooms are located near the front of the home, with a luxurious owner’s suite at the back of the home, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

• 5,401 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $223k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($31/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 580 students, 72% FRL); Lockhart J H (math 22% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,433 students, 74% FRL); Lockhart H S (math 21% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 1,968 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.4%/yr); 325 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $201,094 (9.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $212,990
• List price: $222,990
• Delta: 4.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.02% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-22,708
• Equity at exit: $53,563

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-24,192
• Equity at exit: $56,020

Cash invested: $62,437 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78656

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.4%
• Active inventory: 325
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,011 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,169
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$279 /mo · $3,345/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,008

Max offer price $222,990

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $157	-5% $80	+0% $3	+5% $-74	+10% $-151
Rent	-10% $-156	-5% $-77	+0% $3	+5% $82	+10% $161
Rate	-1.0pp $115	-0.5pp $59	base $3	+0.5pp $-55	+1.0pp $-114

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,748
• Closing costs: $6,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
531 Paris St Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,950	$1.17	0d	1	0.15mi
205 E Lima Dr Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,899	$1.12	0d	1	0.23mi
351 Cobb Branch Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1616	$1,950	$1.21	0d	4	0.68mi
275 Aplite Pass Maxwell, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1733	$2,420	$1.40	0d	1	0.72mi
283 Soapstone Pass Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,609	$1.12	18d	1	0.87mi
253 Fairlawn Way Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1919	$2,235	$1.16	26d	1	0.90mi
312 Soapstone Pass Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	45d	1	0.90mi
171 Haywood Mnr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,850	$1.21	6d	1	0.93mi
328 Mica Trl Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,595	$0.98	45d	1	0.97mi
566 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1837	$1,850	$1.01	18d	1	0.98mi
300 Geode Gln Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1712	$1,795	$1.05	45d	1	1.00mi
124 Hidden Branch Cv Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$1,800	$1.06	0d	1	1.01mi
543 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,695	$1.04	24d	1	1.02mi
192 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1610	$1,699	$1.06	45d	1	1.02mi
230 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,500	$1.04	19d	1	1.03mi
108 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,800	$1.19	19d	1	1.04mi
108 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,800	$1.19	6d	1	1.04mi
147 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,441	$0.99	45d	1	1.04mi
108 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,800	$1.19	26d	1	1.04mi
146 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$1,850	$1.09	14d	1	1.05mi
146 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1698	$1,850	$1.09	45d	1	1.06mi
170 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	2122	$1,795	$0.85	19d	1	1.06mi
170 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	3.0	2122	$1,795	$0.85	6d	1	1.06mi
342 Jade St Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	2072	$1,975	$0.95	45d	1	1.10mi
444 Delta Crst Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1830	$1,850	$1.01	6d	1	1.12mi
251 Tempest Trl Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$1,650	$1.06	19d	1	1.13mi
274 Jade St Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1468	$1,795	$1.22	45d	1	1.16mi
151 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,895	$1.06	6d	1	1.16mi
293 Tempest Trl Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$1,825	$1.07	6d	1	1.17mi
195 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,900	$1.07	6d	1	1.17mi
211 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,840	$1.03	19d	1	1.18mi
170 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	45d	1	1.20mi
296 Agate Cliff Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,675	$1.18	0d	1	1.21mi
839 Gully St Maxwell, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1105	$1,832	$1.66	0d	306	1.29mi
1413 Soapstone Pass Maxwell, TX	4.0	3.0	1952	$2,500	$1.28	45d	1	1.37mi
704 Delta Crst Maxwell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1904	$1,822	$0.96	0d	19	1.38mi
214 Kyanite Dr Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,650	$1.07	45d	1	1.38mi
1259 Delta Crst Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1522	$1,695	$1.11	19d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $222,990 Pending 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $222,990 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $222,990 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $222,990 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $222,990 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $222,990 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $222,990 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $222,990 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $222,990 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-05-12
    price $222,990 576-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    This new single-story home boasts a low-maintenance design ideal for modern lifestyles. An open-concept layout combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to encourage seamless transitions and multitasking. Three bedrooms are located near the front of the home, with a luxurious owner's suite at the back of the home, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

11. 2026-05-12
    price $222,990 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    This new single-story home boasts a low-maintenance design ideal for modern lifestyles. An open-concept layout combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to encourage seamless transitions and multitasking. Three bedrooms are located near the front of the home, with a luxurious owner's suite at the back of the home, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

12. 2026-05-09
    price $242,990 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    This new single-story home boasts a low-maintenance design ideal for modern lifestyles. An open-concept layout combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to encourage seamless transitions and multitasking. Three bedrooms are located near the front of the home, with a luxurious owner's suite at the back of the home, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

13. 2026-05-08
    price $242,990 576-char remark

    Show marketing remark (576 chars)

    The Ramsey - This new single-story home boasts a low-maintenance design ideal for modern lifestyles. An open-concept layout combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to encourage seamless transitions and multitasking. Three bedrooms are located near the front of the home, with a luxurious owner’s suite at the back of the home, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

14. 2026-05-05
    price $222,990 576-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    This new single-story home boasts a low-maintenance design ideal for modern lifestyles. An open-concept layout combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to encourage seamless transitions and multitasking. Three bedrooms are located near the front of the home, with a luxurious owner's suite at the back of the home, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

15. 2026-05-05
    listed $222,990 Active 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    This new single-story home boasts a low-maintenance design ideal for modern lifestyles. An open-concept layout combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to encourage seamless transitions and multitasking. Three bedrooms are located near the front of the home, with a luxurious owner's suite at the back of the home, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

16. 2026-04-20
    price $241,990 576-char remark

    Show marketing remark (576 chars)

    The Ramsey - This new single-story home boasts a low-maintenance design ideal for modern lifestyles. An open-concept layout combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to encourage seamless transitions and multitasking. Three bedrooms are located near the front of the home, with a luxurious owner’s suite at the back of the home, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

17. 2026-04-14
    listed $237,990 Active 576-char remark

    Show marketing remark (576 chars)

    The Ramsey - This new single-story home boasts a low-maintenance design ideal for modern lifestyles. An open-concept layout combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to encourage seamless transitions and multitasking. Three bedrooms are located near the front of the home, with a luxurious owner’s suite at the back of the home, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,131
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,491
• − Property taxes: −$3,345
• − Insurance: −$1,115
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,931
• − Management: −$1,931
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$6,487
• Taxable loss: −$3,707
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$890
• After-tax cash flow: $921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Caldwell County · 25,195 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,847
• Household income: $81,346
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 89.0

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 21% White 20% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 55%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Current HPI: 228.3622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.36%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $222,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $222,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $242,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $242,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $222,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $222,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $241,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $237,990 Unlock MLS