829 N Goodrich · Seguin, TX 78155

$89,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1965 10,497 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special!!!

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1965

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $438 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oralia R Rodriguez El (math 28% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 475 students, 83% FRL); Seguin H S (math 24% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,101 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1342 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.88%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,168
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
608 San Antonio	0.17mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,116 (-1%)	4mo	$159,500	$143	82
404 N Milam St	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,150 (+2%)	2mo	$208,500	$181	72
515 E Mountain St	0.63mi	2/1.0	1,161 (+3%)	1mo	$238,500	$205	65
402 Michna	0.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (-4%)	6mo	$110,000	$102	61
530 E Weinert St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,123 (-0%)	5mo	$205,000	$183	60
767 Taylor Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,084 (-4%)	4mo	$169,000	$156	60
411 Bismark	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,228 (+9%)	6mo	$160,000	$130	52
343 Batey Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+8%)	6mo	$289,000	$238	47
426 Vaughan Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0	992 (-12%)	4mo	$70,000	$71	42
403 Bauer St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,039 (-8%)	4mo	$208,750	$201	42
516 Tampico	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,258 (+12%)	6mo	$163,999	$130	40
1615 N Guadalupe	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,289 (+14%)	2mo	$294,500	$228	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $12,050
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $41,279
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1342
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,367 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,600/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $813

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
508 Pitts St Seguin, TX	3.0	1.0	973	$1,275	$1.31	12d	1	0.18mi
404 W Walnut St Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	996	$1,550	$1.56	44d	1	0.33mi
809 Leissner St Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,175	$1.15	24d	1	0.40mi
201 E Kingsbury St Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	856	$1,095	$1.28	15d	1	0.41mi
201 E Kingsbury St Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	856	$1,095	$1.28	24d	1	0.41mi
300 N Milam St Seguin, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	44d	1	0.50mi
917 8th St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,375	$1.06	4d	1	0.50mi
906 San Antonio Ave Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,100	$1.08	44d	1	0.53mi
726 E Humphreys St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,500	$1.20	24d	1	0.65mi
527 Elley St Seguin, TX	3.0	3.0	1090	$1,325	$1.22	24d	1	0.68mi
1601 Hays St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,275	$1.17	4d	1	0.70mi
1331 Hidalgo St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,364	$1.05	22d	1	0.78mi
1701 N Guadalupe St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,464	$1.42	4d	1	0.78mi
772 Mitchell Ave Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,560	$1.20	4d	1	0.82mi
714 S River St Unit B Seguin, TX	3.0	1.0	936	$1,285	$1.37	24d	1	0.90mi
223 W Baxter St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,664	$1.28	2d	1	0.90mi
968 E Cedar St Unit 1 Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	856	$995	$1.16	44d	1	0.92mi
227 Lopez St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,249	$0.96	12d	1	0.97mi
222 Garcia St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,215	$0.94	2d	1	0.98mi
228 Garcia St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,275	$0.98	4d	1	0.99mi
219 Garcia St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,449	$1.12	4d	1	1.01mi
526 E Baxter St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,350	$1.08	24d	1	1.05mi
908 Pecan St Seguin, TX	3.0	1.0	924	$1,300	$1.41	16d	1	1.17mi
1102 Renee Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,395	$1.02	12d	1	1.19mi
1107 Renee Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,395	$1.02	3d	1	1.19mi
1107 Renee Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,445	$1.05	20d	1	1.19mi
402 Trefger St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1096	$1,395	$1.27	24d	1	1.20mi
1112 Renee Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,494	$1.09	12d	1	1.22mi
1114 Renee Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,449	$1.06	44d	1	1.22mi
1116 Renee Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,395	$1.02	4d	1	1.23mi
450 Wallace St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,700	$1.22	44d	1	1.23mi
415 Hudson St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$1,345	$1.25	15d	1	1.24mi
1119 Burek Cross Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,395	$1.02	4d	1	1.24mi
1131 Renee Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,450	$1.06	44d	1	1.25mi
324 Mar Hill St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.5	1236	$1,395	$1.13	16d	1	1.25mi
1128 Renee Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,395	$1.02	4d	1	1.26mi
502 Hudson St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$1,345	$1.25	22d	1	1.28mi
502 Hudson St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$1,345	$1.25	20d	1	1.28mi
607 E Martindale St Unit B Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,500	$1.47	17d	1	1.30mi
516 Hudson St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,450	$1.26	44d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   historical Active Option
3. 2026-04-03
   listed $89,900 New
4. 2024-11-21
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,600 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,645 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$45/yr (+$4/mo · 2.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,600
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,313
• − Management: −$1,313
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $4,082
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$980
• After-tax cash flow: $4,276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seguin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,210
• Composite: 24.17/100
• National rank: #7738
• State rank: #663 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-10 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-04-03 Listed $89,900 LERA
• 2024-11-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,600 · -25.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.