7153 168th St W · Lakeville, MN 55044

$300,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,060 sqft · SingleFamily · 22 Days on market

Built 1968 0.41 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three BR with a large fenced yard. Traditional sale. Hardwood floors. See today!!

Key facts

• 0.41 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1968

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: City water connection; City sewer connection; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; Three-level split layout; Main-level entry
• Construction: Poured concrete foundation; Roof 8 years old or newer
• Exterior features: Located on a lot with creek/stream frontage; 0.41-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (one on lower level, two on upper level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Utility area in basement (finished portion)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-681/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Lakeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#25 in MN, #711 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan (suburban): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #58 of 301 in MN (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Parkview Elementary (math 46% / reading 43%, grade F, #534 of 857 statewide, top 66%, 694 students, 42% FRL); Scott Highlands Middle (math 40% / reading 62%, grade C, #69 of 258 statewide, top 27%, 1,184 students, 28% FRL); Rosemount Senior High (math 54% / reading 67%, grade C+, #43 of 471 statewide, top 9%, 2,425 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 719 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $134k; list at $300k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,246 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.81%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-51,211
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-45,043
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55044

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 719
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,552 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,624

Max offer price $291,784

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $151	-5% $47	+0% $-57	+5% $-160	+10% $-264
Rent	-10% $-258	-5% $-158	+0% $-57	+5% $44	+10% $145
Rate	-1.0pp $94	-0.5pp $20	base $-57	+0.5pp $-135	+1.0pp $-214

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5076 161st St W Lakeville, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1186	$2,702	$2.28	0d	14	0.75mi
5181 161st St W Lakeville, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$2,340	$2.24	0d	4	0.80mi
15899 Elmhurst Ln Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$2,667	$2.59	0d	14	1.00mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-26
   historical Contingent - Other
3. 2026-04-23
   listed $300,000 Active
4. 2026-04-23
   historical $300,000
5. 2012-07-17
   historical 81-char remark

   Show marketing remark (81 chars)

   Three BR with a large fenced yard. Traditional sale. Hardwood floors. See today!!

6. 2012-07-13
   soldstatus $134,000 81-char remark

   Show marketing remark (81 chars)

   Three BR with a large fenced yard. Traditional sale. Hardwood floors. See today!!

7. 2012-05-04
   listed $129,900 81-char remark

   Show marketing remark (81 chars)

   Three BR with a large fenced yard. Traditional sale. Hardwood floors. See today!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,630
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,450
• − Management: −$2,450
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$5,803
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,393
• After-tax cash flow: $711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan
• NCES district ID: 2732390
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $85,559
• Composite: 49.48/100
• National rank: #2000
• State rank: #58 of 301 in MN

Livability — Lakeville

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #711

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeville, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 64,762
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 64,762
• Household income: $141,551
• Rent vs Own: 12.0% rent · 88.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 956.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -165.50%
• Current HPI: 216.0601
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.38%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+130.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-26 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Listed $300,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Coming Soon $300,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-17 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-13 Sold (MLS) $134,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-04 Listed $129,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid