5926 Mill Branch Club Rd · Pembroke, GA 30415

$225,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,632 sqft · Land · 24 Days on market

Built 1998 4.89 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just under 5 acres to build your dream home and a quick 20 minute drive to the new Hyundai plant and 30 minutes to Pooler. This property currently is equipped with septic, a well, and electricity. There is a 1998 Mobile Home on the property that will remain but will need full renovation for use. Enjoy your little piece of seclusion yet close enough to everything you need. Mobile home on property remains and is being sold in as is condition with no repairs.

Key facts

• New skirting
• New lvp flooring
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW SKIRTING
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW LVP FLOORING
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• REMODELED BATHROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $271 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.3% in Pembroke — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#144 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Bulloch County (rural): math 32% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #85 of 174 in GA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nevils Elementary School (math 43% / reading 38%, grade F, #419 of 1,228 statewide, top 35%, 481 students, 51% FRL); Southeast Bulloch Middle School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #144 of 470 statewide, top 31%, 827 students, 43% FRL); Southeast Bulloch High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #110 of 424 statewide, top 28%, 1,156 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 668 units permitted in Bulloch County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bulloch County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $225k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,914 (10.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.16%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-19,303
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $4,973
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30415

• Home prices YoY: -7.3%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,019 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $604/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,676

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-03-10
   listed $225,000 New
3. 2024-10-10
   soldstatus $139,700
4. 2024-07-10
   soldstatus $130,000 460-char remark

   Show marketing remark (460 chars)

   Just under 5 acres to build your dream home and a quick 20 minute drive to the new Hyundai plant and 30 minutes to Pooler. This property currently is equipped with septic, a well, and electricity. There is a 1998 Mobile Home on the property that will remain but will need full renovation for use. Enjoy your little piece of seclusion yet close enough to everything you need. Mobile home on property remains and is being sold in as is condition with no repairs.

5. 2024-07-10
   soldstatus $130,000

   Show marketing remark (460 chars)

   Just under 5 acres to build your dream home and a quick 20 minute drive to the new Hyundai plant and 30 minutes to Pooler. This property currently is equipped with septic, a well, and electricity. There is a 1998 Mobile Home on the property that will remain but will need full renovation for use. Enjoy your little piece of seclusion yet close enough to everything you need. Mobile home on property remains and is being sold in as is condition with no repairs.

6. 2024-07-03
   soldstatus $130,000 460-char remark

   Show marketing remark (460 chars)

   Just under 5 acres to build your dream home and a quick 20 minute drive to the new Hyundai plant and 30 minutes to Pooler. This property currently is equipped with septic, a well, and electricity. There is a 1998 Mobile Home on the property that will remain but will need full renovation for use. Enjoy your little piece of seclusion yet close enough to everything you need. Mobile home on property remains and is being sold in as is condition with no repairs.

7. 2024-07-03
   soldstatus $130,000 Sold

   Show marketing remark (460 chars)

   Just under 5 acres to build your dream home and a quick 20 minute drive to the new Hyundai plant and 30 minutes to Pooler. This property currently is equipped with septic, a well, and electricity. There is a 1998 Mobile Home on the property that will remain but will need full renovation for use. Enjoy your little piece of seclusion yet close enough to everything you need. Mobile home on property remains and is being sold in as is condition with no repairs.

8. 2024-05-27
   status Under Contract
9. 2024-05-22
   listed $130,000 460-char remark

   Show marketing remark (460 chars)

   Just under 5 acres to build your dream home and a quick 20 minute drive to the new Hyundai plant and 30 minutes to Pooler. This property currently is equipped with septic, a well, and electricity. There is a 1998 Mobile Home on the property that will remain but will need full renovation for use. Enjoy your little piece of seclusion yet close enough to everything you need. Mobile home on property remains and is being sold in as is condition with no repairs.

10. 2024-05-22
    listed $130,000 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Just under 5 acres to build your dream home and a quick 20 minute drive to the new Hyundai plant and 30 minutes to Pooler. This property currently is equipped with septic, a well, and electricity. There is a 1998 Mobile Home on the property that will remain but will need full renovation for use. Enjoy your little piece of seclusion yet close enough to everything you need. Mobile home on property remains and is being sold in as is condition with no repairs.

11. 2024-05-22
    listed $130,000

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Just under 5 acres to build your dream home and a quick 20 minute drive to the new Hyundai plant and 30 minutes to Pooler. This property currently is equipped with septic, a well, and electricity. There is a 1998 Mobile Home on the property that will remain but will need full renovation for use. Enjoy your little piece of seclusion yet close enough to everything you need. Mobile home on property remains and is being sold in as is condition with no repairs.

12. 2024-05-22
    listed $130,000 New

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Just under 5 acres to build your dream home and a quick 20 minute drive to the new Hyundai plant and 30 minutes to Pooler. This property currently is equipped with septic, a well, and electricity. There is a 1998 Mobile Home on the property that will remain but will need full renovation for use. Enjoy your little piece of seclusion yet close enough to everything you need. Mobile home on property remains and is being sold in as is condition with no repairs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $604 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,070 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,466/yr (+$122/mo · 242.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$604
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,938
• − Management: −$1,938
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$525
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$126
• After-tax cash flow: $3,379/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bulloch County
• NCES district ID: 1300630
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,335
• Composite: 26.97/100
• National rank: #7074
• State rank: #85 of 174 in GA

Livability — Pembroke

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #144
• US rank: #9707

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bulloch County · 73,507 people
• Metro: Statesboro, GA
• Population (ZIP): 6,343
• Household income: $76,895
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 237.0

Population outlook (Bulloch County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 79,935 people
• By 2030: 83,796 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 89,717 · +12.2%
• By 2050: 94,558 · +18.3%
• By 2075: 104,376 · +30.6%
• By 2100: 112,857 · +41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Bulloch

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.0) · D 35.3% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.0 2020: R+23.7 2016: R+23.4 2012: R+19.1 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.07%
• Current HPI: 253.7079
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Statesboro, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+73.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $225,000 GAMLS
• 2024-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $139,700 Public Records
• 2024-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2024-07-10 Sold (MLS) $130,000 Hive MLS
• 2024-07-03 Sold (MLS) $130,000 GAMLS
• 2024-07-03 Sold (MLS) $130,000 Hive MLS
• 2024-05-27 Pending — GAMLS
• 2024-05-22 Listed $130,000 GAMLS
• 2024-05-22 Listed $130,000 Hive MLS
• 2024-05-22 Listed $130,000 Hive MLS
• 2024-05-22 Listed $130,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $604 · +79.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.