3055 Sumpul Way · Rancho Cordova, CA 95742

$547,630

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,794 sqft · Land · 285 Days on market

Built 2025

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Plan 1794 at Coloma offers 1,794 sq. ft. of stylish two-story living with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The open-concept main level features a chef-inspired kitchen with quartz countertops, a large center island, and generous prep space, perfect for both entertaining and everyday life. A convenient half bath is located downstairs for guests, while all bedrooms are upstairs for added privacy and comfort. The fully finished, painted 2-car garage provides extra functionality, and the expansive backyard offers endless potential to create your dream retreat. Plan 1794 delivers the perfect balance of modern design, flexible living, and practical comfort.

Key facts

• Fun-filled park
• Freeway access
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• ELLIOTT HOMES COMMUNITY
• FUN-FILLED PARK
• AMERICAN RIVER PARKWAY
• FREEWAY ACCESS
• LOCAL SHOPPING DESTINATIONS
• ENTERTAINMENT OPTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $548k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-745 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $416k (24.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $328k (40.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $328k (40.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.0% in Rancho Cordova — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D.
• Folsom-Cordova Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #365 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 466 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $59k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $55k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$94k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 285 days — a 12% lower offer ($482k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $327,787 (40.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 285 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.83%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $247,573
• Equity at exit: $493,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.96×
• Total profit: $760,046
• Equity at exit: $1,063,925

Cash invested: $153,336 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95742

• Home prices YoY: 28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 466
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,278 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,872
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,814/yr
• Insurance: −$228
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$688
• Net cashflow: $-745

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,221

Max offer price $416,030

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $136,908
• Closing costs: $16,429
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-09-17
   price $547,630 656-char remark

   Show marketing remark (656 chars)

   Plan 1794 at Coloma offers 1,794 sq. ft. of stylish two-story living with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The open-concept main level features a chef-inspired kitchen with quartz countertops, a large center island, and generous prep space, perfect for both entertaining and everyday life. A convenient half bath is located downstairs for guests, while all bedrooms are upstairs for added privacy and comfort. The fully finished, painted 2-car garage provides extra functionality, and the expansive backyard offers endless potential to create your dream retreat. Plan 1794 delivers the perfect balance of modern design, flexible living, and practical comfort.

2. 2025-08-12
   listed $546,950 Active 656-char remark

   Show marketing remark (656 chars)

   Plan 1794 at Coloma offers 1,794 sq. ft. of stylish two-story living with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The open-concept main level features a chef-inspired kitchen with quartz countertops, a large center island, and generous prep space, perfect for both entertaining and everyday life. A convenient half bath is located downstairs for guests, while all bedrooms are upstairs for added privacy and comfort. The fully finished, painted 2-car garage provides extra functionality, and the expansive backyard offers endless potential to create your dream retreat. Plan 1794 delivers the perfect balance of modern design, flexible living, and practical comfort.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,814 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,162 · $347/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,348/yr (+$112/mo · 47.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,334
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,676
• − Property taxes: −$2,814
• − Insurance: −$2,738
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,147
• − Management: −$3,147
• − Depreciation: −$15,931
• Taxable loss: −$19,118
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,588
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Folsom-Cordova Unified
• NCES district ID: 0613890
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -38.00%
• Median HH income: $75,408
• Composite: 24.49/100
• National rank: #7656
• State rank: #365 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rancho Cordova

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #9126

Category grades

Amenities C Commute C- Cost of living F Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Cordova, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 98,329
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,768
• Household income: $155,855
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 28% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.05%
• Current HPI: 236.1388
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $547,630 Zillow
• 2025-08-12 Listed $546,950 Zillow

Property tax history

+408.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,814 · +408.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.